“It’s a showdown game” – one of the many football adages we regularly hear from coaches at press conferences. And with the sky-high number of stars on the pitch on Sunday, the AFC and NFC title games will absolutely boil down to a variety of one-on-one showdowns.
And as a young player analyst here at CBS Sports, I’m here to highlight those prospects drafted in 2018, 2019 or 2020 who will find themselves in a key individual battle in both conference championships.
With the Packers, Buccaneers, Chiefs and Bills respectively the # 1, # 2, # 3 and # 4 teams in Football Outsiders DVOA Weighted Offensive (weighted = games earlier in the season don’t weigh as much as more recent games), it’s no surprise that most of these clashes feature a young defender tasked with limiting a veteran on offense.
Assignment: TE Chefs Travis Kelce
Kelce is football’s best tight player and comes into this game as a legitimate contender for Offensive Player of the Year. He set the NFL one-season record for most receiving yards for a tight end (1,416) and was second in the league only to Stefon Diggs receiving yards among all players in the 2020 regular season. Against the Browns last week, the ultra-athletic tight end caught eight passes for 109 yards and one score.
At 6ft 5in and 260lb with bizarre turning skills and backtracking abilities with the ball in his hands, Kelce is incredibly unique, and this rare mix of size and athleticism makes him almost a blanket. impossible.
Interestingly, the Bills also boast of a uniquely talented defenseman who will take on some of the responsibilities of staying with Kelce on assists – Edmunds is 6-4 and 1/2 inches tall and weighs 250 pounds as a linebacker. He ran 4.54 at the combine in 2018. While not as consistent as his linebacker counterpart Matt Milano, Edmunds has the physique to match Kelce in the seam. He had three breakouts during the regular season and three in total in Buffalo’s first two playoff games. I don’t expect Edmunds to completely put the pincers on Kelce, but this is the only time the Kansas City superstar has faced a linebacker almost as tall and athletic as him. Watch out for this key one-on-one battle in the AFC Championship game.
Mission (s): Buccaneers WRs Mike Evans / Chris Godwin
Alexander rightly earned an All-Pro first-team honor after a brilliantly stingy season as a press cornerback in Mike Pettine’s system. And now, he’ll see a trio of phenomenal receivers from Tampa Bay.
Alexander mostly lines up with Green Bay’s left outside cornerback. Evans and Godwin actually run a good portion of their routes from the slot machine and have been left out of the receivers more than the right outside receivers. Antonio Brown – who was sent off on Sunday – has actually taken the most shots as a right outside receiver since joining the Buccaneers.
The 5-10, 194-pound Alexander has a 4.38 speed, good explosiveness, and bizarre agility – as exemplified by his blazingly fast 6.71 three-cone time at the 2018 combine. Godwin and Evans of course boast of a big rebound threat given their height. How the Buccaneers’ star receivers fare against Alexander will go a long way in determining the outcome of the NFC Championship game.
Assignment: WR Cole Beasley Bills
The Louisiana Tech fourth-round rookie with a speed of 4.37 and a 41-inch vertical started his rookie season playing the frontier cornerback for the Chiefs. Since returning from a broken collarbone in late November, it has mostly been used in the cleft. And in this contest he’s going to see Beasley, arguably the slickest and most savvy slot machine in football.
According to Next Generation stats, of the 63 pass catchers to get at least 80 targets in the regular season, Beasley had the highest average distance at 3.5 yards per target. Part of it is a diagram. Part of that is Beasley’s electric contraction and his racing prowess. Buffalo’s main option has had five games over 100 yards in the regular season and set career highs in catches (82) and receiving yards (967).
Sneed has the linear explosiveness to match Beasley on vertical routes, but this man-to-man battle will be more about how the impressive rookie can change direction once the crafty veteran slips out of his way.
Assignment: EDGE Za’Darius Smith Packers
The praise for Wirfs in his first year has been widespread. His mix of athleticism and strength with 10 years of veteran-type manual work has allowed him to wipe out most of the high-end rushers he has faced in good tackle this season. Heading into the playoffs, the Iowa product gave up just one sack of Tom Brady, and after Week 10, Wirfs allowed just five taps of 345 pass blocking shots. It was a Kevlar wall.
While Smith, the Packers’ top outside fighter, splits the time after the quarterback on the left and right side of the line, we’ll have that heavyweight fight on occasion. At 6-4, 272 pounds with quick hands that don’t lack for pop on contact, Smith is one of the toughest assignments for outside blockers. How Wirfs handles the instances he and Smith lock themselves into will be integral to how effective Brady is in the pocket.
This year, counting the playoffs, Brady’s passer rating was 55.3 under pressure and 114.6 without pressure.
Assignment: Chiefs CB Tyreek Hill
Wooo boy, it’s as tough of a game as any – Johnson, Buffalo’s sticky cornerback, seeing the hyper-explosive, rocked Hill on a regular basis Sunday night.
Including the playoffs, Johnson has eight breakouts over the course of the season, and six of them came after Buffalo’s Week 11 off week. The third-year pro and former fourth-round pick also has two picks at six in critical games for the Bills defense.
Covering Hill will be more of a team effort than Johnson just playing on an island
Assignment: WR Davante Adams Packers
In the Week 6 game against the Packers, Davis covered Adams on 24 shots. The wide first-team All-Pro caught two assists.
The 6-1, 209-pound wedge with arms that stretch nearly 33 inches long is one of the tallest and most physically intimidating corner-backs in the NFL. The Buccaneers picked him in the second round of the 2018 draft, and he’s been hugely productive ever since. As a rookie, he broke four passes. Respectable start to his NFL career. In 2019, that number rose to 19. During that regular season, the Auburn product knocked out 18 assists while noting four interceptions. He already has three break-ups in the playoffs.
Davis can be a bit of a boom or bust – five touchdowns have been scored in his target zone, and remember, Adams has a grand total of 19 received scores this season so far. He’s arguably the most destructive wide receiver in the league, winning on the line with insane regularity and on his run with convincing head, shoulder and hip fakes to free himself for Aaron Rodgers.
