Will the Supreme Court declare Donald Trump above the law?

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Roula Khalaf, editor-in-chief of the FT, selects her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.

Hello and welcome to the US election countdown. Today we are talking about:

• Trump’s immunity before the Supreme Court

• Should Biden be concerned about rising interest rates?

• The president’s oil priorities

Donald Trump has asked the Supreme Court to consider a question that will have enormous consequences for the balance of power in the American government: are presidents above the law?

Trump’s lawyers will today urge the high court to take a broad view of presidential immunity, as Trump seeks a ruling that would make the presidency more like a monarchy of yesteryear. [free to read]. Specifically, he wants to protect himself from federal criminal charges accusing him of trying to overturn the 2020 election. Any decision would likely affect two other criminal cases he faces.

Republican lawmakers and attorneys general have said such broad presidential immunity is necessary to protect a president from both the justice system and partisan prosecution.

Many legal scholars, historians and advocacy groups have argued, however, that attempts to overturn an election do not constitute “presidential authority” and run counter to the values ​​that are at the heart of American democracy.

Blanket immunity could also have national security implications. A lower court raised a striking hypothesis: Could a president be prosecuted for ordering the military to kill a political rival? Trump’s lawyers seemed to be saying that Congress should first impeach and convict this president. The military chain of command could also be thrown into chaos, experts say.

Amid the Supreme Court’s rightward shift, Chief Justice John Roberts will likely seek to gather consensus to avoid accusations of partisanship. There are three Trump-appointed justices on the bench and the court is split 6-3 along conservative-liberal lines.

For Joe Biden’s part, the president can be expected to remain silent for now, as speaking out on the immunity matter could expose him to accusations of politicizing the justice system.

Campaign extracts: the latest election headlines

• Biden’s campaign will continue to use TikTok despite the divestment or ban law he just signed.

• As Biden hopes a robust economy will help him overtake Trump, data released today shows the U.S. economy grew less than expected for the first quarter of 2024 and inflation data was higher than expected.

• Here’s how evangelical Christians and intelligence chiefs convinced U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson to reverse course on aid to Ukraine. [Free to read]

• Biden along with Trump and Johnson have weighed in on the arrests of protesters on college campuses who oppose the war in Gaza.

• Former tabloid boss David Pecker said during Trump’s “hush money” trial that he tried to protect the former president from affair allegations.

• JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon said he would “love” to be chairman but would have to be nominated. Until then, he would like the next president to appoint members of the opposing party to his cabinet.

In the wings

A surging economy during an election year is what presidents dream of, but is this one getting too hot for Biden to handle?

In Biden’s ideal scenario, unemployment would remain near historic lows, price pressures would ease and the Fed would cut rates at least once before voters go to the polls in November. But the chances of a rate cut have declined sharply as recent inflation data came in higher than expected – so much so that some traders have started betting on another rate. increase.

However, Claire Jones, the FT’s acting US economics editor, told me that Biden shouldn’t worry too much about the Fed raising rates just yet:

Officials still believe that, despite some recent disappointing numbers, inflation will most likely drift toward its 2% target, giving them room to cut rates at some point in 2024 — but perhaps a few months later. later than initially planned.

Does this mean Biden can ignore market noise? Not enough. Investors’ interest rate expectations are weighing on voters’ borrowing costs, and the recent reversal helped push new mortgage rates above 7 percent.

Data points

When Iran launched a barrage of 300 missiles and drones on Israel this month, the world braced itself for a shockwave through oil markets. If we look at the unrest of the 1970s in the Middle East, an inflationary surge could be enough to topple an American president.

But with the United States now producing a large amount of oil, these fears seemed exaggerated; gasoline prices have barely changed.

On the one hand, this is good news for Biden since rising gas prices are politically sensitive. Voters are increasingly concerned about the possibility of higher prices at the pump. The latest FT-Michigan Ross poll found that 33 percent of respondents said gas prices were one of the most important economic issues to them, up from 29 percent a month earlier.

But the United States’ rise as a net oil exporter also complicates his attempts to court young, progressive and environmentally-concerned voters. About 20 years ago, the United States produced about 7 million barrels of oil and consumed 21 million barrels per day. Today, the country produces nearly 20 million bpd, which roughly corresponds to consumption.

Perspectives

• Republicans have formed a circular firing squad, with help from Ukraine, exposing deep divisions within the party that a sleepy Trump cannot resolve, writes Edward Luce.

• The Fed faces a tricky question over when to start easing monetary policy – ​​and central bankers may want to avoid cutting interest rates before the election, says Martin Wolf.

• Johnson defied all odds by taming Trump and his radical Republican supporters on aid to Ukraine, notes Jonathan Martin. (Political magazine)

• Meanwhile, one of those extremists, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, was humiliated, according to Michelle Cottle. (NYT)