Newcastle United will have been in Champions League qualification position for a period of 64 days when we come to the next NUFC game.
Eddie Howe’s side moved into the top four after victory at Tottenham on Sunday 23 October.
Then two games and two wins (home to Villa, away to Southampton) later, Newcastle United were third. The home win against Chelsea then saw the NUFC stay third and comfortably in a Champions League qualifying position, albeit with just 15 games of the season played so far by Newcastle United.
A victory over Leicester on Boxing Day would ensure Newcastle are still third when we enter 2023, regardless of results elsewhere. While a qualifying position for the Champions League is at least assured on January 1, 2023, by beating the Foxes or Leeds.
Whisper it soft but win in the next two PL games for Eddie Howe’s side, if combined with another Man City botched Brentford-style loss to Leeds, or at home to Everton, would see Newcastle United enter the new year second and above Pep Guardiola. side. Indeed, in front of everyone except Arsenal.
Nurse, Nurse, I need to lie down.
Either way, the bottom line is that Eddie Howe got us fighting for Champions League qualifying space as things stand. The big question is can he and his team continue?
Oliver Kay writes on The Athletic:
“Do Newcastle have to buy to secure Champions League football?
Watching Newcastle in recent weeks, taking 22 points from their last eight Premier League games and scoring 21 goals in the process, has been to witness an extraordinary transformation in a side that have won just one of their first 20. games last season.
Yes, they’ve spent a significant amount of money in the transfer market since then – around £90m last January and more than that in the summer – but, for all the benefits brought by Kieran Trippier, Bruno Guimaraes and d others, no one witnessed the improvement. in the game of Fabian Schar, Sean Longstaff, Joelinton, Joe Willock and Miguel Almiron would underestimate the impact of new head coach Eddie Howe on the training ground.
To their delight, Newcastle find themselves third in the Premier League at Christmas, vying for Champions League qualification. Whatever timeline they envisioned after the Saudi takeover last fall, Howe and his team are ahead.
So how do they approach the second January of the new regime?
New sporting director Dan Ashworth has said the club’s spending levels over the past two transfer windows have been “unsustainable”, due to Premier League financial regulations. Even private club briefings have suggested next January will be a quiet month.
But the club are in a position where Champions League qualification, and the wealth and profile that comes with it, is achievable. Could one or two well-judged winter window moves – Shakhtar Donetsk winger Mykhaylo Mudryk, for example, or one of Leicester City midfielders Youri Tielemans and James Maddison – be the difference?
The one thing we can say with confidence, based on everything we know about Ashworth and Howe, is that they won’t be freaked out by the type of instinctive signing that so many other extremely new ownership schemes rich found it irresistible.
Every signing done over the last 12 months has been well thought out; although Chris Wood was overpriced at £25m, his impact last season was positive and his move to Tyneside certainly hurt Burnley, who at the time were direct rivals to Newcastle in a relegation battle.
Another top-class midfielder or a versatile forward capable of playing on the front line would have obvious appeal, but Howe is one of those coaches who constantly talks about ‘the group’ and he wouldn’t want to risk upsetting the squad. team balance or spirit that has been integral to their progress.
The way Newcastle have gone, they might think they can reach the Champions League with the squad they have.
The Howe effect has been extraordinary.
Interesting stuff from Oliver Kay, who was writing about all sorts of Premier League possibilities as things stand, from Arsenal staying ahead and winning the title, to whether Frank Lampard will relegate Everton and will the new former Real Madrid Wolves boss be able to maintain them. .
Between these, Oliver Kay ponders Newcastle United potentially retaining their position in the Champions League qualifying places at the end of the season?
The thing is, this season’s form didn’t come out of nowhere, it actually came out of black and white. As in, there has been no gray area over the span of 2022 so far. Eddie Howe leads Newcastle United to 20 (TWENTY) Premier League wins this calendar year and just six (SIX) losses.
If you’re wondering how some other clubs have fared in 2022 when it comes to Premier League defeats this calendar year, so far:
8 Arsenal
3 Man City
10Tottenham
11Manchester United
4Liverpool
9Chelsea
I think that sums up, at least for me, that Man City are still the ones to beat. Yes, they are having very strange days like Brentford last time… but only three PL defeats in 2022 are on the way.
Liverpool are perhaps a slightly different case, as they have gone from no defeats at all last season in 2022, to now four already in 14 PL games this season, as well as extreme luck in a number of others. PL matches already this campaign…
Arsenal are in good form so far this season of course, but along with Chelsea, Man Utd and Tottenham, they have all lost more PL games this season than Newcastle United. Indeed, Newcastle beat three of those four and arguably deserved to win at Old Trafford when Callum Wilson was ridiculously denied that clearest penalty.
What I think we can say with certainty is that Tottenham, Chelsea and Man Utd are certainly not unbeatable these days, whether it’s individual league matches or finishing positions in the table. While there are also question marks over Liverpool this season and the big question of whether Arsenal can continue.
Of course, this comment could also be applied to Newcastle United, but certainly all this form of 2022 is something that can give Newcastle fans reassurance that it could be sustainable.
Getting back to what the man from The Athletic had to say.
Will Newcastle United buy Champions League qualification? Or if they even need…
Well, I think that report is 85% correct.
Like all other teams, Newcastle United will rely at least in part on luck and avoid injury to key players.
As for the evidence of what we’ve seen so far, Oliver Kay is of course absolutely right in praising Eddie Howe for the impact on existing players.
By spending money and signing players, The Athletic man gets mostly okay.
However, outsiders… including Oliver Kay, fail to recognize that while around £200million has been spent on signings in 2022, when it comes to success so far this season, we’re really only talking about a little more than half of that money at stake (never mind all those years and Mike Ashley’s minimal/low spend transfer windows).
Chris Wood (£25m) was a (relatively) expensive short-term fix to avoid relegation and would never have been signed at all, had it not been for Wilson’s serious injury five days before the window opened. January 2022, leaving the NUFC without a single prime minister. League-level and relegation-level striker opposite.
While £63m (£59m plus £4m in future add-ons), Alexander Isak only managed three PL games and NUFC picked up only two points (Isak not to blame, although if only he had lifted this chance on the goalkeeper…) in this trio of matches before injury.
Not much more than £100m to put Pope, Trippier, Burn, Bruno and Botman on the pitch (and Targett currently on the bench) is outstanding business and something like Chelsea (over a quarter of a billion spent this summer) and Forest (around £145million spent this summer) could only dream of.
Going back to the original question posed by the man from The Athletic, this group of Newcastle United players (with Isak and ASM looking to make their way through next month) have undoubtedly shown they have the potential to maintain the cap.
However, signing one or two additions in this upcoming transfer window wouldn’t hurt.
I daydream and wonder what the reaction of Eddie Howe and the NUFC owners would be if they said Newcastle beat Leicester, Leeds and Arsenal in their next three Premier League games AND other results would follow their way as well.
How would the approach change, if at all, in this January 2023 window, knowing that games against Fulham, Palace, West Ham and Bournemouth would follow. After which we would be one point away from 22 played and only 16 PL games to go.
The possibilities are limitless.
