It’s time to respect the Titans. Maybe not as a Super Bowl contender after going one-and-one in the previous two playoff series as the No. 1 seed, but certainly all their hard work under Mike Vrabel. This team wins big and rarely gets the credit, either in the media or in the betting market.
The Titans are currently a home underdog against the equally hot Bengals despite Tennessee winning seven of their last eight games and covering all eight. They were surprisingly underdogs before crushing the struggling Packers in Week 11, and have played more games as underdogs than favorites this year. They nearly won at Kansas City with replacement QB Malik Willis as the 14-point underdog.
They will be upstaged and underdogs in each of their next two games against the Bengals and Eagles. Which also means they have a chance to exceed expectations again and maybe earn some well-deserved attention that is starting to come to them.
They are currently as good as a bet, but barely have the numbers to show for it. They covered the spread in eight consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NFL. According to Caesars Sportsbook, less than half of the money wagered has been on the Titans to cover six of those eight games. That’s also the trend this week, as 61% of the money is on the Bengals Thursday afternoon.
Week 3 vs. Raiders |
22% |
Week 4 at Colts |
41% |
Week 5 at Commanders |
75% |
Week 7 vs. Colts |
44% |
Week 8 at the Texans |
78% |
Week 9 at Chiefs |
44% |
Week 10 vs. Broncos |
21% |
Week 11 at Packers |
28% |
Part of the reason the Titans are overlooked is that they lack power outside of Derrick Henry. They have a good quarterback, but not a star quarterback. They don’t win in style either. According to the CBS Sports research team, they are the only team since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger to cover eight consecutive games in one season without scoring more than 28 points during the streak. In the words of Al Davis, “Just win baby!” They win. It’s not sexy, but it gets the job done.
The gap between their results and the Titans’ perception is only growing, according to the CBS Sports research team. Consider that only the Chiefs have a better record than the Titans (19-8) since the start of last season. However, Tennessee’s average spread (+0.3) ranks 19th in the NFL over this period. Nine of their 19 wins have come as an underdog.
Vrabel was clear about his feelings about the underdog mentality in the Titans’ 2019 playoffs. “I try to spend the majority of my time preparing the team as best I can. I think for those of us who have been in this league for quite a long time, I think it’s a bit overrated – the underdog thing. It’s professional football. Everyone gets paid. Everyone has a job to do. It’s maybe that mentality that makes Vrabel and the Titans so good.
Outperformance has been the only constant since the Titans hired Vrabel in 2018. Vrabel is 20-15 as an underdog in his coaching career, second best by any head coach since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger, behind George Allen (Allen coached Washington, and the Rams, in the 70s). Vrabel did this while navigating many adversities over his five seasons. In 2019, the Titans benched Marcus Mariota, the 2015 No. 2 overall pick, in favor of Ryan Tannehill. In 2021, Vrabel won the NFL Coach of the Year after Tennessee earned the AFC top seed following injuries to Derrick Henry and AJ Brown in the second half of the season. And in 2022, they’re 7-3 after trading AJ Brown this offseason. Their top offensive lineman (Taylor Lewan) and top pass thrower (Harold Landry) are also out for the season, and Ryan Tannehill has missed two games.
If the Titans keep doing what they’ve been doing, Vrabel has a nice piece of history ahead of him too. Tennessee needs to win three of its last seven games to surpass its total of nine preseason Over-Under wins. They’ve already broken records in each of Mike Vrabel’s first four seasons as head coach.
Dating back to 1989, when this data is first available on sportsoddshistory.com, the only head coaches to start a coaching tenure with a team that broke records in its first five seasons are Andy Reid, Tony Dungy and Tom Coughlin. Only Coughlin has done so in his first five seasons as head coach. Dungy and Reid both had NFL head coaching experience prior to their stretches.
Andy Reid (Chiefs 2013-20) |
8 |
Tony Dungy (2002-08 Colts) |
seven |
Tom Coughlin (Jaguars 1995-99) |
5 |
It’s unclear whether the Titans will make a deep run in the playoffs like in 2019, or have an early exit like in 2020 or 2021. But just being in a position to make some noise in the playoffs is once again quite an accomplishment that should start making more waves. around the league.
As for this week, you can justify the Titans as home underdogs after losing to Cincinnati in the playoffs in Nashville last season. The Bengals are also hot, winning six of their last eight games and covering all but one. But one more nugget from the CBS Sports research team. The Titans last played Thursday night in Week 11 at Green Bay. Tennessee is 9-0 and ATS with at least eight days off under Vrabel in the regular season.