More does not mean better. It’s a lesson many sports fans need to learn as it was a common line this weekend. I don’t like that the NFL has gone to 14 teams in the playoffs because all it does is increase the chances of mediocre teams making the playoffs, which in turn increases the chances that we let’s have boring games the first weekend of the playoffs.
Yet when you say that publicly, people will invariably respond with “but that’s more football! Don’t you like football?” Yes, but what I love more than football is good football, especially when we reach the playoffs and the stakes increase. I don’t need to see a washed-out Ben Roethlisberger throwing three-yard takedowns or Jalen Hurts knocking down open receivers.
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We all could have saved ourselves a lot of time by just saying goodbye to Tampa Bay and Kansas City, as we have done for years. And, yes, one year a No. 7 seed will make an unlikely run and reach a conference championship or a Super Bowl, but so what? Is the 15 years of watching them lose by multiple scores suddenly worth it when it happens? Are you really excited about teams finishing 8-9 or 7-10 in the playoffs? Or do you just like watered down matches?
Only one underdog has won in five games this weekend, and the average winning margin has been 16 points per game. How exciting!
OK, now that I’m done complaining about the NFL playoffs, let’s bet on the NFL playoffs.
All Eastern times and odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The hot ticket
🏈 Cardinals at Rams, 8:15 p.m. | Television: ABC
Latest odds:
Under 49
The pick: Less than 49.5 (-110): OK, so while I’m not a huge fan of having more mediocre teams in the playoffs, I don’t hate having another playoff game on Monday night. I’m sure whoever wins this game won’t like having to play for a short week, but that’s not my problem (not before it’s the Chicago Bears, anyway, but it’s the Chicago Bears, so we’re not likely to cross that bridge for quite a while).
Either way, division games are always intriguing in the playoffs. The two regular season meetings between the Cardinals and the Rams saw 57 points scored in the first meeting and 53 more in the second. So why on earth am I taking an under here when the total is at 49.5? Because familiarity breeds two things: contempt and lower scores.
Both teams know where the other will attack them and how to counter it. Also, games tend to underperform in the playoffs, as the intensity kicks up a notch and coaches will become a bit more conservative, whether intentionally or not. So with all that in mind, I don’t think our Monday night finale will have the same kind of fireworks as the first two meetings, and as long as that number stays above 49, I’m going to sink. You should too.
As well, I have a free live betting tip to consider while I watch the game. Arizona is one of the worst scoring offenses in the NFL, having scored a touchdown in just 64.1% of those situations this season, and that ranks 29th. The Rams defense ranks 11th in the league for keeping opponents out of the end zone in G2G situations. So whenever the Cardinals have a first and a base, you should consider betting on the live under. Chances are they won’t get the touchdown.
Key trend: Under is 25-10-1 in the Rams’ last 36 games as a favorite.
Here’s what SportsLine has to say about the game: SportsLine’s RJ White is 37-25-1 ATS in his last 63 picks involving the Rams, and he has a pick posted for tonight.
🏈 Another NFL Best Bet
The pick: Kyler Murray Over 39.5 rushing yards (-115) – There was a change in the way the Cardinals used Kyler Murray’s legs during the latter part of the season. In Week 8, before Kyler’s time-starved injury, he hadn’t rushed for more than 39 yards in any game and was averaging just 18.4 yards per game. Since returning from injury in Week 13 against the Bears, Murray has rushed for at least 35 yards in five six-game games, and while he averaged 46 yards in that span, three rushing yards against Detroit kill the average. In the other five games, he averaged 54.6 rushing yards per game.
Oh, and that time he rushed for 39 yards in the first half of the season? You will never believe who the opponent was. Yes, it was the Rams. In the Week 14 meeting, Murray rushed for 61 yards against them, which means he’s averaging 50 yards per game against Los Angeles, and he’s not alone. Quarterbacks are averaging 5.03 yards per carry against the Rams this season, which leaves LA 23rd in the league in that category.
Key trend: Kyler Murray averaged 50 rushing yards per game against the Rams this season.
🏀 College Basketball
Wyoming at Nevada, 8 p.m. | TV: FS1
Latest odds:
Less than 149.5
The choice: Less than 149.5 (-110) — There aren’t many college basketball games tonight with so many afternoon games today, but of the games available, this is by far my favorite game of the night. Nevada’s offense was ineffective throughout the season, and it got worse in three conference games. The Wolf Pack has an adjusted efficiency of 108.7 on the season (79th nationally), but it fell to 103.1 in the Mountain West. They move fast but don’t shoot well, shooting just 32.8% (211th) from three and with an overall eFG% of 49.9% (179th).
Wyoming is more efficient on the offensive end but moves very slowly and is also a poor shooting team. Their effectiveness stems from the fact that they take care of the basketball, and they face a Nevada defense that doesn’t turn you around often, which means they’ll dribble their way. So we have an inefficient attack versus a slow attack, with neither having a significant advantage over the other in a key area. Take the bottom.
Key trend: Under is 5-2 in Nevada’s last seven games.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Looking for a little DFS side action tonight? SportsLine’s Mike McClure shares his optimal DFS lineups for tonight’s NFL playoff game.
🏈 Same Parlay game
How about a Same Game Parlay for tonight too? That one pays +184.
- Rams +7.5 (-600)
- Matt Stafford Over 1.5 TD (-190)
- Matt Stafford finished the longest for 39.5 yards (-120)
