Hello and welcome to the special Thanksgiving edition of the HQ PM newsletter. With tomorrow being Thanksgiving, there won’t be an afternoon newsletter filled with choices for you. I’m sorry, but it says in my contract that I’m allowed to leave content mines at least five days a year, and Thanksgiving is one of the days I choose to see the sun.
But, since I love you as much as I do, I couldn’t send you to a Thursday full of no choice football, so today is a Wednesday edition of Football Friday. I have an NBA pick for you tonight, as well as a college basketball game. But I also have picks for all three NFL games tomorrow.
So I hope you all have a good holiday and holiday weekend. In fact, I’m giving you permission to start right away. Start your weekend by reading these stories.
OK, let’s talk turkey.
All Eastern Time and All Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
The hot ticket
??Nets at the Celtics, 7:30 p.m. | Television: ESPN
Latest odds:
Brooklyn Nets -1
The choice: Fillets -1 (-110): Okay, since it’s Thanksgiving weekend, tonight’s NBA game won’t be under. I’m sure you’ve had enough of rooting for missed shots and long half-court possessions that feature a player jab-step for 20 seconds before driving into a lane full of defenders and returning the ball. So tonight, I suggest you take a break and instead suggest you take the Nets as a favorite of the road in Boston.
While Boston are a better team than their 10-8 record suggests, I’m not sure if I would trust things that work out. I think the Celtics are underperforming because they are a team with no identity. Brad Stevens is no longer on the sidelines and the key players on the list either do not understand their roles or refuse to accept them. It’s the opposite with Brooklyn, where the stars are the stars, but they seem more willing to play on the team than Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown sometimes do.
Plus, for whatever reason, Boston is considerably worse defensively at home than on the road. In eight home games, the Celtics have a defensive rating of 108.0. On the road, that number drops to 101.5, which is the highest rating of any team in the league. If that’s not weird enough for you, there’s more! Brooklyn has an offensive rating of 112.0 on the road versus 104.5 at home. So the Nets are better offensively on the road, Boston is worse defensively at home, wear this one, divide by 3.25 and take the Nets.
Key trend: The Nets have covered seven of the last eight games.
Here’s what SportsLine says about the game: The SportsLine projection model has a few highlights about tonight’s game, but if he likes a side of the broadcast, he really likes playing on the total.
Choices
NFL
Ours aux Lions, Thursday, 12:30 pm | Television: FOX
Latest odds:
Chicago Bear -3
The choice: Bear -3 (-110) – It’s either Andy Dalton vs. Tim Boyle or Andy Dalton vs. Jared Goff. How not to be enthusiastic about this one? I mean, I know as a Chicago Bears fan there’s nothing I want to do more than take a family vacation and watch Andy Dalton and the Chicago Bears! It will surely not lead to any hassle!
Either way, the Bears are the right game here. It’s not an exciting game to make, but I don’t think it’s Boyle or Goff for the Lions. The truth is, while the Bears’ offense is terrible and their playmakers are often ignorant, they are more suited to Andy Dalton than to Justin Fields.
The Bears love to run all the short routes Dalton can throw and don’t know how to use Fields yet. Meanwhile, the Lions are terrible and Jared Goff has never played well against the Bears. Plus, here’s a fun trend for you: The Lions covered four straight Thanksgiving games as favorites, but as the underdogs they only got 3-11 ATS on Thanksgiving.
Key trend: The Lions are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 Thanksgiving games as underdogs.
Raiders at Cowboys, Thursday, 4:30 p.m. | Television: CBS
Latest odds:
Las Vegas Raiders +7.5
The choice: Raiders +7.5 (-115) – It’s fun to bet against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. It is one of the most popular franchises in the country, playing in a game in the spotlight on a holiday. This means that sports betting needs to protect against the occasional cash that comes in for a game like this. Also, now that sports betting is legal in a lot more places, it is more of a factor than before. And the result is that the line is skewed too much in favor of Dallas.
That’s one of the reasons the Cowboys are only 1-9 ATS at Thanksgiving since 2011.
Well they’re about to be 1-10. The Cowboys will again be without Amari Cooper and could be without CeeDee Lamb as well. Dak Prescott doesn’t appear to be 100%. There are just too many reasons to wonder how strong the Cowboys will be in a short week, and even though the Raiders have lost three games in a row in this one, they shouldn’t get more than one touchdown. this place.
Key trend: The Cowboys are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Thanksgiving games.
Bills at Saints, Thursday, 8:20 PM | Television: NBC
Latest odds:
Over 45.5
The choice: Over 45.5 (-110) – Buffalo fell out of first place in the AFC East, having lost three of its five losses, and the main reason for Buffalo’s slippage was that its defense fell off a cliff. Having been one of the best defensive teams in the league earlier this year, the Bills have been showing some flaws lately. While they’ve managed to keep terrible teams like the Dolphins, Jaguars and Jets low on points, the competent infractions Buffalo has faced have racked up plenty of points.
Now you could argue that New Orleans is not a competent offense at the moment, and you would have a strong case. Trevor Siemian is in QB, and Alvin Kamara is also out, but it had too much of an impact on the total. After all, New Orleans still has one of the best game planners and playmakers in the league at Sean Payton. Oh, and the New Orleans defense is also rotten. I see this as a perfect game for Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense, and I see the Saints doing enough to make sure we exceed that total. It won’t be a ridiculous shootout, but it won’t be a total snoozefest, either.
Key trend: The upside is 7-3 in Buffalo’s last 10 road games.
?? SportsLine pick of the day: The SportsLine projection model put together a four-legged Thanksgiving soccer game that pays 12-1!
College basketball parlay
How about a four-legged bet to send you into your vacation weekend? This one pay +128.
- UMass (-475)
- South Florida (-550)
- SMU (-900)
- State of South Dakota (-230)
