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AS Monaco provided the latest twist in arguably Europe’s most exciting title race this season, beating Paris Saint-Germain 2-0 at Parc des Princes last Sunday to leave the defending champions four points behind the leader of Ligue 1 Lille OSC with six losses in the league. already.
Goals from Sofiane Diop and Guillermo Maripan led Les Monegasques to three earned points who now see them just two points behind PSG in fourth place without continental distractions for Niko Kovac’s men by the end of the campaign.
A sixth league defeat in a single term is unheard of in the days of Qatar Sports Investments (QSI) in Paris and it is now set to become the weakest domestic season since the resumption of Ligue 1 having been conquered in all campaigns except two.
Mauricio Pochettino replaced Thomas Tuchel as head coach mid-season and despite a sensational 4-1 win in the round of 16 first leg of the UEFA Champions League against Barcelona at Camp Nou and a Trophee des Champions title against Olympique de Marseille, his PSG has already lost twice in Ligue 1.
Although still in his early stages, the Argentine has taken 19 points from his opening nine Ligue 1 games and that makes his start the worst point total at this stage along with Carlo Ancelotti and Unai Emery who also succeeded 19.
Antoine Kombouare scored 20 points from his first nine games in the QSI era while Laurent Blanc did a better with 21 but Thomas Tuchel blew them all out of the water with a 100% record of 27 points.
Putting these numbers in context, Ancelotti is arguably the most relevant name as he is the only other coach to have been hired mid-season and PSG won’t need to remind that the Italian has failed. to lead the capital club to the Ligue 1 title after having inherited from then the leaders of the Kombouaré league.
Open this criterion to coaches who failed to be crowned champions of France and that is Ancelotti in 2011-12 when Montpellier HSC beat Les Parisiens for the three-point title and Emery in 2016-17 when Monaco won. by eight points – both shared the same current total of Pochettino.
Of course, the circumstances are very different with COVID-19 impacting football on and off the pitch and Pochettino inheriting a team that had already lost four times under Tuchel this campaign, but the reality is the same: PSG are facing to a difficult task to keep his grip on Ligue 1.
Even under Ancelotti and Emery in both unsuccessful terms, their teams have only lost five times in each and were not in as strong a position as Pochettino is currently in UCL with UEFA Europa football. League already passed under Kombouare and the hopes of Emery dying with Remontada.
These two failures prompted PSG to retaliate strongly, especially via the transfer market, with Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Thiago Silva among the arrivals in 2012 and Neymar as well as Kylian Mbappe the summer 2017 response to their Camp Nou nightmare.
However, none of these seasons had reached this current level of defeats so early and it suggests that Les Parisiens should already consider what is acceptable and what is not of the rest of the current campaign.
Lille or Lyon are the most likely title winners in the event that PSG are unable to overcome their current deficit and LOSC’s domestic situation will be strengthened if they are knocked out of UEL later this weekend. by AFC Ajax with OL already deprived of European competition this year.
Monaco, although the team in form at the moment, are still underdogs for the title but the gap is narrowing all the time and the six points between the formation of the principality and Lille are not a chasm, this which increases the possibility that PSG, Lyon or Les Dogues could descend to fourth at some point.
The underlying stats illustrate an extremely close title race. Lyon, PSG, Monaco and Lille have expected goal differences of 1.29, 1.11, 0.73 and 0.57 per game, respectively, which suggests that all four have played well, although LOSC has brought the rebounds of the ball back to their current position.
Lille are the best defensive team in Ligue 1 and concede just 0.78 xG for 90 while being more average in attack, while Lyon are the most robust offensive team in the league with an average of 2.34 xG for 90 – just ahead of PSG’s 2.31. The Parisians of OL and Pochettino are more mediocre defensively while Monaco shares the difference and this indicates sustained competition in the back.
In this scenario, small margins can come into play and that includes the added challenge of maintaining a European race and focusing on that. Taking into account PSG’s thinking here must be his excellent first leg position against Barca in the Champions League and recent examples of Real Madrid winning two of his three most recent titles in seasons where he was not crowned national kings .
The French giants were much less established as a European power when Ancelotti was in charge than they are now, and Emery was supported to recover from Remontada’s humiliation by overseeing Neymar’s birth and the flourishing double act. de Mbappe – both were maintained.
There is no reason to think for one moment that the failure to win Ligue 1 and UCL will result in the dismissal of Pochettino when the unacceptable start of this campaign is one of the reasons Tuchel has stood down. saw open the door in the first place.
Instead, depending on the results over the next few weeks, it could shift PSG’s focus from the French title race to the European stage where Pochettino’s men appear to be saving their best form and will be one of the teams to be feared. to complete their passage to the quarter-finals and at least replicate last summer’s race to the Lisbon final becomes even more important.
The next few days could be crucial in the Championship as Lille’s clash with Ajax in the Europa League will determine whether the Parisians fight for the title with continental representatives with zero wins against the top three and five losses, one draw and only two wins against the top seven.
Lyon away and Lille at home in late March-early April feel that this could be particularly decisive in deciding the national fate of Pochettino and PSG.
