POLLANDIAN LEADERS have long pushed their partners to NATO and the EU forging closer ties with Ukraine, warning of the risk of Russian aggression, only to be dismissed as paranoid. Russia’s murderous and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine proved them absolutely right. Polish denunciations of Russia’s imperial ambitions, which Americans and Western Europeans once derided as post-communist stress disorder, have now become the norm NATO talking points. But it’s not just Poland’s view of Russia that is taken more seriously; this is Poland’s role in the world. Within weeks, the country became the backbone of the Western effort to defend Ukraine and deter Russia, a task as important as it is dangerous.
Hundreds of Stinger missiles, Javelin anti-tank weapons and other munitions have already been dumped into Ukraine via Poland and Romania, as part of the US $350 million program to aid the beleaguered country. Poland itself has sent an ammunition convoy to Ukraine and plans to send mortars, small drones and man-portable missile systems, known as MANPADS, from its own supplies. Arms deliveries from other countries, including a 450 million euro ($490 million) consignment funded by the EU, are also on their way. “Most of the military equipment, both lethal and non-lethal, will pass through Poland,” says Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting, a military analytics firm. “Whether we like it or not,” says Stanislaw Koziej, a former brigadier general in the Polish army, “we are going to be the main link in the chain linking Ukraine and the West.”
Poland is closer to the eye of the storm than any other NATO member. He is likely to be trained more. For days, the country hesitated to give its MIg-29 combat aircraft to Ukraine in exchange for F-16s of America. The Americans, who initially pushed the plan, balked when Poland asked to send the jets through a US air base in Germany. On March 9, they backed down, saying the transfer of the jets risked escalation. Poland wants to do as much as possible, say officials in Warsaw, without being drawn into war.
The crisis also made Poland, almost overnight, the country with the second largest refugee population in Europe. At least 2 million people have fled Ukraine since the start of the invasion, the largest and fastest refugee movement in post-war history in Europe. More than 1.3 million have reached Poland. The country has withstood the influx remarkably well. But its resources are exhausted.
Poland was already home to the largest Ukrainian diaspora in Europe, numbering more than a million people, and is therefore an important recruiting ground for the Ukrainian resistance. During the first ten days of the war, Polish border guards recorded 217,000 crossings into Ukraine. A large part were Ukrainians returning home to fight. “Our people are waiting,” says Aleksandr, who arrived at the border by bus from Estonia. “They’ll tell us what to do, give us ammunition and guns, and then we’ll go to work.”
Poland’s size, location and infrastructure make it the most important gateway from the West to Ukraine. The two countries share a 530 km (330 mile) border, punctuated by more than a dozen crossings. Rzeszow Airport, about an hour’s drive from the border, is Ukraine’s nearest large airport on NATO territory. Flight radar data shows an increase in the number of military aircraft, almost certainly involved in arms deliveries, flying to and from Rzeszow since the start of the war. If Kiev were to fall into Russian hands, which is still far from guaranteed, Ukrainian troops and volunteers would probably regroup in the west of the country, in or around Lviv, only 80 km from the Polish border. This would further increase the importance of Poland for Ukraine.
The war has already strengthened Poland’s position in NATO. The alliance is significantly increasing its presence in Poland. America had deployed nearly 5,000 new troops to Poland in February, even before the Russian invasion, bringing the total to some 9,000. It also recently approved the sale to Poland of 250 Abrams tanks.
Poland also hopes to reconcile with the rest of the EU. The bloc has repeatedly berated Poland’s nationalist government for filling its highest court with cronies, threatening judges who rule against it and harassing the media. The stalemate prompted the EU to freeze €36 billion in pandemic recovery funds earmarked for Poland and fine it for ignoring European Court of Justice rulings. Poland traveled to meet some EU demands, and his efforts in the face of Russian aggression may earn him a more sympathetic audience.
But there are also incalculable risks. Analysts say Russian retaliation of one kind or another against Poland is a virtual certainty. The longer the war lasts, the more desperate Russia will try to destroy the supply lines connecting Poland to Ukraine. “I fear Russian rocket attacks on these supply lines are something we need to consider in the days and weeks to come,” says Wojciech Kononczuk of the Center for Eastern Studies, a think tank at Warsaw. America is clearly taking this possibility seriously: it is sending Patriot missile defense batteries to Poland. Others point to the threat of Russian sabotage and cyberattacks inside Poland. A social media monitoring group has already uncovered a Russian disinformation campaign intended to sow panic and stoke resentment towards refugees from Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin’s threats against countries interfering in Ukraine should not be taken lightly. But for Poland and NATO, the only risk greater than that of Russian retaliation is the risk of Western inaction. “There is no alternative, because we are in the same boat,” says Kononczuk. “The only difference is that Ukraine is ahead and we are behind.” ■
Our recent coverage of the Ukraine crisis can be found here.
This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition under the headline ‘The Frontline State’
