THE STREETS of Barcelona sparkles with Christmas lights. City council quietly resurfaced pieces of pavement damaged by night fires and barricades that lasted a week in October, after nine separatist Catalan leaders were sentenced to long prison terms for their failed 2017 independence attempt The most unusual This week in Barcelona, a discreet meeting took place on December 10 between the leaders of the socialist party of Pedro Sánchez, Spanish Prime Minister, and Esquerra, the strongest Catalan separatist party. Mr. Sánchez requests the abstention of the 13 deputies from Esquerra in the National Congress. This would mean that he could win the vote he needs to form a coalition government with Podemos, a party politically to the left of the socialists.
This would, however, imply a double descent for the Prime Minister, and it highlights the way in which the political impasse in Spain is linked to the impasse on the independence of Catalonia. Mr. Sánchez won a plurality of seats in Congress in an election in April, but not a large number: only 123 out of 350. During the summer, he broke off disjointed coalition talks with the leader of Podemos , Pablo Iglesias. Against the instincts of the wisest leaders of his party, he called new elections for November 10 to seek “a strong progressive government that would not depend on the separatists,” as a government official said.
His bet turned against him: the fourth election in four years, held in the shadow of the demonstrations in Barcelona, only showed that Spain is becoming more and more politicized. The main winner was Vox, a new far-right party, which won 15% of the vote. Until 2015, the country essentially had a two-party system pitting the Socialists against the Conservative People’s Party (PP). The new Congress includes 16 parties.
the PP hesitates to join Mr. Sánchez and let Vox monopolize the opposition. A large left-wing government seems to be the Prime Minister’s preference, but it also has no alternative. Whatever happens, Spain seems ready for its first coalition since the restoration of democracy in 1977. This prospect worries many types of companies, who fear that Podemos will raise taxes and repeal a labor reform that accelerated the recovery of Spain after the 2008-13 slump. The fact that its price includes a political dialogue with the Catalan separatists scandalized the right-wing newspapers.
Some taxes will go up and eliminating the budget deficit may take longer if the coalition is formed. But the panic seems exaggerated. Podemos is already in office in six regional governments. In this year’s campaigns, Mr. Iglesias highlighted his support for the constitution. He is likely to be one of the three vice-presidents in charge of social affairs. Podemos will not manage economic or foreign policy in the proposed future administration, said the government official.
Critics have a strong point regarding the talks with Esquerra. “The Prime Minister is negotiating with a party whose support for the legality is doubtful”, explains Carlos Aragonés, PP deputy. In 2017, elected officials from Esquerra in Catalonia helped organize an illegal referendum and declaration of independence in what many Spaniards saw as an attempted coup against the constitution. Oriol Junqueras, the party leader, was sentenced to 13 years in prison for this. Esquerra wants government-to-government talks – “a meeting of equals” in which the Catalan administration can propose a referendum on self-determination, as Father Aragonès (unrelated), MP for Junqueras, puts it. Critics say that there can be no equality between the central government and a region.
The Prime Minister declared that any agreement would be “within the framework of the constitution”, which does not recognize the right to the self-determination of a region. Mr. Sánchez hoped for a government by Christmas. But Esquerra takes its time. Separatism analysts believe the prison has convinced Junqueras to abandon the 2017 unilateral strategy for the kind of pragmatism practiced by the Scottish National Party. But as long as the leaders remain in prison, the emotion will be strong in separatist Catalonia. The division of the independence movement into three parties generates a logic of competitive radicalization. Mr. Junqueras would fear that any sign of moderation would be exploited by the party of Carles Puigdemont, the former Catalan president fleeing to Belgium.
Neither side has much room for maneuver, but both have much to gain. The separatists hit a vacuum in 2017. No European government is ready to embrace them, and the elections have repeatedly refuted their claim to speak for the majority in Catalonia. “Many separatists now realize that there is no way to go without an agreement,” says Miquel Iceta, the leader of the Socialists in Catalonia. For their part, the political leaders of Madrid have reasons to try to defuse the Catalan conflict. Although the Catalan economy, which accounts for one fifth of the GDP, has shown resilience, the conflict carries an increasing opportunity cost. And Spain’s failure to convince more than 2 million people that they have a future in the country damages its image.
Lancing the boil
There is a third reason. “It is impossible to hope that there will not be Spanish nationalism in the event of Catalan ultra-nationalism”, PPMonsieur Aragonés. Although Vox exploited concerns about illegal immigration, it was mainly fueled by fear and anger over separatism. In a survey of how the Spanish voted in November, the Center for Sociological Research concluded that 69% of Vox supporters said that Catalonia had influenced their vote. Many of them had already voted PP.
This means that a return to normality in Catalonia, which would reduce its importance as an electoral problem, should be in the interest of the PP as well as the socialists. This will take time and many small steps. The current talks could weaken and Spain could face a new election. But it is more likely that they will come to mark the end of the Catalan conflict in its recent and acute form. ■
This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition under the title “The Strange Companions of Spain”
