Why are Premier League and Champions League clubs now spending big on players over 30? – Athleticism

It was accepted wisdom in football – you don’t pay big money or give players over 30 long contracts.

There has always been the odd exception, of course. Juventus signed 33-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo to a four-year contract in the summer of 2018, and 12 months ago Paris Saint-Germain agreed to pay free agent Lionel Messi around 25 million pounds ($29.5 million) a year when he moved. from Barcelona at the age of 34. These were, however, generational talents with brands giving their new clubs a marketing boost.

Normally, it’s the young and hungry players, or those in their early 20s – when footballers are supposed to be the fittest and least prone to injury – who have been most in demand.

But this summer, there have apparently been more exceptions to the rule than ever before.

Chelsea have signed 31-year-old Kalidou Koulibaly for around £33m on a four-year deal. Tottenham have signed Ivan Perisic, 33, on a two-year deal, and Manchester United have signed Brazil international Casemiro, 30, in a swap deal worth £70m. He has committed to the cause for the next four seasons, with the option of a fifth.

In Spain, Barcelona have signed Robert Lewandowski, 33, from Bayern Munich in a deal worth up to 50m euros (£42.5m), handing the Polish striker a four-year contract. year.

In January, the first signing of Newcastle’s new golden era was Kieran Trippier, who will turn 32 next month, while Aston Villa continued their original loan deal for Philippe Coutinho in the same month with a permanent transfer of 17 million pounds on a four-year deal announced shortly. before turning 30 in June.

So why are some clubs abandoning the cult of youth, and the ensuing hope of signing players with future resale value, to recruit those who are past their prime?

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The answer could be a mixture of panic and pragmatism. Perhaps some are reacting to a flawed start by taking advantage of an atypical summer, with the transfer window remaining open to the point that most of the 20 Premier League teams will have played five games.

Take Chelsea, who have won just one of their first three games under new ownership by Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital.

They have the financial power to sign teenage prospects such as Carney Chukwuemeka, Cesare Casadei and, potentially, 21-year-old Everton striker Anthony Gordon. But in Koulibaly, and possibly Barcelona’s former Arsenal striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, 33, the focus is on the right at the moment as head coach Thomas Tuchel demands proven performers .

“It’s interesting,” says Tim Keech, co-founder of MRKT Insights, a company that provides football analysis, as well as recruitment and strategy advice to clubs around the world. “Most sane clubs have tended not to spend a lot of money on players over 27. That’s the rule of thumb and ignoring it can make you feel like you’re burning money from a business point of view, because you can never make a profit.

“Chelsea saw things a little differently this summer. They spent (nearly) £50m on Raheem Sterling, who is 27 (28 in December) and on a five-year contract, and of course there is Koulibaly.

“Our stats strongly suggest that spending big on a player over 27 rarely works out well. It’s around a 30-40 per cent success rate.

I’m not saying PL clubs should ever spend a lot of money on players 27 or older, but the success rate on them is VERY low. pic.twitter.com/yxyjaO3tXJ

— Tim Keech (@SBunching) August 14, 2022

“But maybe this is a case where Todd Boehly wants to make a splash and cares less about whether it makes sense. They might be thinking, ‘Let’s get some players in so we can win something now,’ and s ‘they ask the manager how to do it, he’ll probably say giving him world-class, proven players.

“If you’re a multi-billionaire, chances are you’re not buying a club to be slow and steady.”

It should be noted that more established Premier League clubs, such as Manchester City and Liverpool, have not followed suit. A 30-plus-year-old outfielder hasn’t moved to Anfield since 2016, while City haven’t paid a transfer fee for one in almost a decade.

Perhaps Chelsea have been forced into centre-back Koulibaly after losing top players as free agents Antonio Rudiger and Andreas Christensen, while also missing out on a younger target at Juventus Matthijs de Ligt, 23 , at Bayern Munich, but they weren’t the only major Premier League club to spend big on senior players. United also have a habit of going for big names with a lot of football under their belt in the hope that they will be sure of things.

“There was a lot of pressure at United,” says Keech. “The solution seems to be to reach a world-class player who, on paper, ticks all the boxes – but can one player solve all your problems?”

The lack of job security and longevity afforded to managers in the modern game could be another reason why some are returning to the familiar, regardless of player age.

“Some managers may wonder why they should worry five years from now, certainly in terms of buying players on resale, when you might not be at the club then?” said Keech.

Antonio Conte’s reunion with his former Inter Milan player Perisic at Spurs can also be seen through the lens of a manager who tends not to spend much time at clubs.

However, the Croatia international is also one of a breed of players who defy traditional notions of age in football.

In the two seasons preceding this one, Perisic played 67 league games and scored 12 goals, while switching roles from striker to full-back. He turned 33 in February and since March he has had nine assists in 13 games. He played almost 3,000 minutes in 35 of 38 Serie A games last season and shows few signs of slowing down.

Former Liverpool, Everton and CSKA Moscow fitness manager Ryland Morgans predicts more players will follow Perisic’s example.

“In terms of being able to physically monitor players, it’s obviously more advanced than 10 years ago,” Morgans says. “You can deal with individuals better and look at slightly older players with more insight. There’s a much more granular focus on food and nutrition.

“All of this means that, from an injury prevention perspective, maybe being 30 now isn’t as much of a barrier as it used to be.

“Most of the time the players are on the training ground for two to three hours and have to take care of themselves for another 21 or 22 hours. Others accept the idea of ​​​​doing this in order to extend their career, whether it’s Thiago Silva at Chelsea (38 next month) or Phil Jagielka at 40 in the Championship with Stoke.

“There is also a degree of luck, in terms of avoiding serious injury – and maybe just having good genes. But I definitely think more players know how to do what it takes now to stay at a high level well into their thirties.

At the same time, clubs will often pay a premium for players with this often intangible quality of ‘leadership’.

Conte hopes Perisic’s age will be a short-term success and help Tottenham’s young players improve.

“I think it’s very important that we signed a player like Ivan Perisic because he (22-year-old Croatian team-mate Ryan Sessegnon) can see how to learn something,” Spurs head coach said. after their season opener. 4-1 win over Southampton.

“Sometimes it’s good to have players in your team, even if they’re a little over the age. If he is a good player with experience, he can bring that experience to improve the younger players on your team. I think Sessegnon does that. I was really happy because today he played a good match.

Not every top veteran can fit into the Premier League.

Everton are reportedly struggling to claim their £21.7m move for an almost 30-year-old Allan two years ago, despite the Brazilian midfielder’s wealth of experience in Italy with Udinese and Napoli.

“Allan went from being a possession team in a slower league to a more transitional team where he was asked to play a different role at a much faster pace,” Keech said. “Even for experienced players, this change may be too big.”

Someone familiar with recruiting from a major European club agrees that signing players aged 30 and over can make sense when there isn’t a younger option that fits into your price bracket, or if concerned gamers can still deliver decent levels of performance without asking for a giant. wages.

But more often than not, they think it should be a last resort.

There can be no guarantee that some of those clubs now trying to break the “golden rule” will not be burned.

But in this long Premier League summer, there’s a transfer bonus in knowing what you get – and players enjoying their own Indian summers are a popular solution.

(Main graphic: Eamonn Dalton)