Last Sunday morning I had my last article published on The Mag, it was titled ‘Why 8 more Newcastle United wins should get the Champions League – 9 would make sure’
That was before Eddie Howe’s side played Wolves this afternoon.
There were also a few other Premier League matches to be played last Sunday, including Man U against Southampton.
In this article, I was wondering how many Newcastle United wins would it take to guarantee Champions League football?
What kind of form needed in the last 14 Premier League games for Eddie Howe’s side to finish in the top four?
The first of those 14 remaining PL games sees Newcastle United take on Wolves this afternoon.
I was saying I had seen a lot of talk about how other Premier League clubs were supposed to fare, Newcastle’s rivals for a place in the Premier League top four.
Was it really true?
Safe to say that Arsenal and Man City will finish in the top four at least, as they battle for the title.
So last Sunday morning I was focusing on the form of the top four Premier League contenders for the other two Champions League spots?
I’ve listed each club’s recent form below in terms of the number of wins in their last PL games, then the form over the last 17 Premier League games in terms of wins for each:
3 wins in the last 7 Male U 10 wins in the last 17
6 wins in the last 12 Tottenham 8 wins in last 17
4 wins in the last 10 liverpool 9 wins in last 17
5 wins in the last 12 Newcastle United 9 wins in last 17
5 wins in the last 11 Brighton 7 wins in last 17
6 wins in the last 12 Fulham 8 wins in last 17
6 wins in the last 12 Brentford 7 wins in last 17
3 wins in the last 11 chelsea 4 wins in last 17
As I said at the time, nothing I saw there told me that a place in the Premier League’s top four was anything other than in Newcastle United’s own hands. .
These recent form lines showed that none of the eight clubs have won more than half of their Premier League matches.
While in terms of form in the PL’s last 17 games, only Man U (with 10) had won more than Newcastle United’s 9 since October.
Anyway, what has happened since my article last Sunday morning?
Here are the results for the top four Premier League contenders from last Sunday:
Fulham 0 Arsenal 3
Man U 0 Southampton 0
Newcastle 2 Wolves 1
Brighton 1 Palace 0
Forest 1 Newcastle 2
Southampton 0Brentford 2
Brentford 1 Leicester 1
Southampton 3 Tottenham 3
Chelsea 2 Everton 2
So on top of that indifferent inconsistent form before last Sunday, in the past seven days we’ve seen Fulham, Man U, Brentford, Chelsea and Tottenham drop more points. In the case of Man U and Tottenham, both dropped two points apiece to bottom out at Southampton.
The only exceptions were Newcastle United picking up six points from a possible six and Brighton three points from a possible three.
These are now Newcastle United’s 12 games remaining:
Home
Man U, Tottenham, Southampton, Arsenal, Leicester, Brighton
Far
West Ham, Brentford, Villa, Everton, Leeds, Chelsea
In my article last Sunday morning, I said: “I honestly think nine wins for Newcastle United would guarantee a place in the top four, assuming at least two draws there as well.”
I then added ‘If let’s say Newcastle United have won eight of the last fourteen games and drawn three, that would be 68 points. With the inconsistency of our rivals, I think that might be enough for the top four as well.
Here’s what the Premier League table currently looks like on Sunday after the main matches for the top four Premier League contenders were played ahead of the international break:
After these victories against Wolves and Forest on Friday, it is now 47 points out of 26 played.
In these last 12 PL games, Newcastle United by my calculations…potentially/probably only need six or seven more wins (especially if they include against Man U and Tottenham), assuming the other clubs don’t become suddenly winning machines. The shape lines don’t indicate this as some sort of probability.
Newcastle United don’t need to achieve perfection in these remaining 10 weeks of the season.
Eddie Howe and his team just have to keep coming up with those 1-0 / 2-0 / 2-1 wins, as they have done last week and, indeed, consistently over the past few months.
Newcastle United have none of the current top seven to play away in those remaining fixtures, while five of the current bottom eight to play (home or away).
Everton, Southampton, West Ham, Leeds, Leicester and more are all beatable, the Premier League top four race is off to a great start AND is in Newcastle United’s hands, especially after these two wins and some very strong performances last week.
