As the Premier League season enters its final three weeks, the race for European places remains intriguing.
Places in the Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League are still up for grabs and the race to secure them looks set to go the distance.
Seven English teams will play in Europe next season, despite almost certainly lacking a fifth place in the Champions League, and only three places could be taken for granted.
As the campaign draws to a close, here’s how the battle is unfolding.
First of all, how does European qualification in the Premier League work?
Champions League
The top four teams in the Premier League qualify for the Champions League.
With the format changes coming, there is an opportunity to secure an extra place, but the poor performances of English teams in European competitions this season mean Italy and Germany are set to earn them.
Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City will almost certainly confirm qualification in their remaining matches while fourth-placed Aston Villa are best placed to join them.
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Europa League
Two Europa League places are allocated to English teams: one for the team that finishes fifth in the Premier League and the other for the FA Cup winners.
When the FA Cup winner finishes in the top five anyway, that place goes to the next highest finisher in the Premier League.
Tottenham Hotspur are the fifth-placed team and, despite their aspirations to catch Villa in fourth, will likely have to settle for a Europa League place.
Manchester United are well placed to win the other; they face neighbors Manchester City in the FA Cup final for the second year in a row and are the team currently sitting sixth in the Premier League table.
Europa League Conference
The only place for an English team in the Europa Conference League is awarded to the winners of the Carabao Cup.
This place carries over to the Premier League standings if the Carabao Cup winners secure a place in the Champions League or Europa League through their league position.
The Carabao Cup winners this season were Liverpool, who cannot fall out of the top five for the rest of the season, so the Europa Conference League place will likely go to seventh in the Premier League. It’s currently Newcastle United, but a few teams are still in the running.
Which teams are fighting for a European place?
(Blue: qualification for the Champions League; Yellow: qualification for the Europa League; Green: qualification for the Europa Conference League)
It is fair to assume that the top three will not lose the Champions League places in the remainder of the season.
Below them there is a six-team battle for the remaining four places with two other teams – Bournemouth and Brighton & Hove Albion – on the periphery.
Brighton’s fleeting hopes of another European tour were dealt a blow in their 4-0 defeat to Manchester City on Thursday and they will need a near-perfect run to the finish if they are to have a chance to place in the top seven.
In truth, the current top seven teams might not move much in the final three weeks of the season – an expectation shared by Opta.
Final PL table planned by Opta
Tottenham can still catch Aston Villa in last place in the Champions League, but their inconsistent form and difficult run-in make it unlikely they will improve on Villa’s points total in the remainder of the season.
However, it is equally unlikely that they will finish below fifth place. They need three wins from their six matches to secure fifth place, but fewer points will likely be enough given the likelihood of teams below them dropping points.
The battle for sixth place is the one that seems most likely to provide us with drama. If Manchester City wins the FA Cup, sixth place will come with a place in the Europa League. If Erik ten Hag’s side win the FA Cup and don’t finish sixth, it will be a place in the Europa Conference League.
Manchester United can secure a Europa League place with an FA Cup triumph (Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)
Manchester United’s main competition appears to be Newcastle but, despite a poor season, Chelsea are also in the mix. United’s task is simple: keep the teams below them at bay.
To finish sixth, Newcastle must collect three more points than Manchester United in the race. Chelsea, meanwhile, need six more points than Manchester United and four more than Newcastle (due to Newcastle’s superior goal difference).
The two teams missing out on sixth place will then be in contention for seventh place, which is likely to come with a place in the Europa Conference League.
West Ham (eighth), Bournemouth (10th) and Brighton (11th) all have an outside chance of finishing seventh, although it appears they have too much ground to make up on the teams above them due to point difference and matches. in the hand.
(Top photos: Getty Images)
