What to know when betting on AFC and NFC Championship matches

Celtics at 76ers, 7:30 p.m. | Television: ESPN
The choice: less than 222.5 (-110): What? You thought that because we made that same bet in that same game on Wednesday and he lost, we weren’t going to do it again? Oh yes, we are. The total in that game was 221.5, and we went under, and tonight it’s 222.5, so you’re absolutely right, we’re doing it again. Just because he lost the other night didn’t mean it was the wrong play. Things went wrong.

Most of the time, what went wrong was the Sixers got 45 free throw attempts. That’s a ridiculous amount of free throws. To put it in perspective, the team that averages the most free throw attempts per game this season is Washington. He’s averaging 26.6 per game, 18.4 short of the Sixers drawn on Wednesday. Considering the game ended with 228 points scored, those free throws had an impact! This is unlikely to happen again tonight, which will keep the score at its normal level between these two (they averaged 211.6 points per game in eight games last season).

Key trend: The least is 5-2 in the last seven games and would have been 6-1 if it weren’t for all those fucking free throws!

Here’s what SportsLine says about the game: The advanced computer model simulated this game 10,000 times to find an answer, and I wonder how many of those sims included the Sixers shooting 45 free throws.

💰 The choices

🏀 NBA

Nuggets at Suns, 10 p.m. | Television: ESPN
The pick: Nuggets +2 (-110) – You know I like to look for teams that are undervalued by the market, and we found one with the Nuggets. Denver is only 7-7 to start the season, and if the playoffs started now, they’d be looking away. However, their record is a bit misleading because their average points differential over the season is +3.9 points per game. This is the fourth best score in the Western Conference, ahead of the Suns (+3.3 ) that the Nuggets face tonight.

Now the problem is Denver was a defensive mess to start the season, but it’s so good on offense that I think he’s able to keep this game tight on the road tonight. I don’t hate an online money game, but I do feel better with the points.

Key trend: The Nuggets are only 5-9 ATS this season. You probably think this is a bad trend, but in my eyes that means regression is coming.

🏈 NFL

Buccaneers at Packers, Sunday, 3:05 PM | Television: Fox
The choice: less than 51.5 (-110) – When these two met earlier in the season, it was the worst Aaron Rodgers I have ever seen in a game and the peak of Tampa’s defensive performance. In other words, it was the kind of game that we can’t get too much out of because it was loaded with outliers. You won’t make a lot of money betting against Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, so I chose to avoid this route. Instead, I’ll go under that total. It seems a bit high considering the weather conditions the game is likely to be played in, and no matter who wins, I find it hard to imagine a shootout.

Key trend: The under is 4-1 in Tampa’s last five as an underdog.

Bills at Chiefs, Sunday, 6:40 p.m. | Television: CBS
Pick: Chiefs -3 (-115) – Patrick Mahomes is out of concussion protocol and has been cleared to play. With that in mind, I find it difficult to take on the Chiefs in my home here. Buffalo’s defense has improved, but none of the previous seven offenses it has faced ranks in the top half of the NFL on passing DVOA. The Indianapolis pass attack placed 16th. Kansas City is second, behind only Green Bay. I love bills. They’ve been one of the most entertaining teams to watch throughout the season … but I think the fun ends on Sunday.

Key trend: The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in the playoff games that Patrick Mahomes starts and ends.

🔒 SportsLine pick of the day: CBS mixed martial arts analyst Brandon Wise just posted his picks for UFC 257 on Saturday.

💸 The DFS summary