The Dodgers announced Monday that the right-hander Walker Buhler will undergo season-ending right elbow surgery on August 23. He has been out since June 10 after being diagnosed with a Grade 2 flexor sprain. The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya tweet Buehler’s recent MRIs weren’t conclusive enough to determine the extent of the damage to his elbow, but Dr. Neal ElAttrache saw enough to recommend surgery. Presumably, the Dodgers will provide more details once the procedure is completed.
That injury initially required a six-to-eight-week layoff from pitching, and the Dodgers had surely been hoping Buehler could make a comeback in late September and/or maybe in the playoffs. Instead, he won’t pitch again until next season at the earliest. More details are unclear, as the team declined to provide details on the nature of the proceedings in their initial announcement.
Buehler, 28, finished fourth in National League Cy Young voting last season but has now had several arm issues this season. Once it was clear the forearm strain would sideline Buehler for three months, he underwent arthroscopic surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow – a problem he said had plagued him over the course of of recent seasons.
The arm issue(s) limited Buehler to 65 innings in 2022, during which time he posted a 4.02 ERA with a career-low 21.2 percent strikeout rate. Those are pedestrian numbers by his lofty standards — both roughly in line with the league’s average production among MLB starting pitchers (4.09 ERA, 21.4 percent strikeout rate).
Since his first full major league season in 2018, Buehler has established himself as a rock in the Dodgers’ rotation and one of the most talented arms in the National League. He ranks 23rd in Majors in innings pitched from 2018-22 – even with this year’s glut of missed time – and also ranks seventh in ERA (2.95), 25th in strikeout rate (27%). ) and 32nd in walk rate (6.2%) amid a field of 152 qualified starting pitchers at that time.
For now, Buehler will join the two Clayton Kershaw (discomfort in the lower back) and Dustin May (recovering from Tommy John’s surgery in 2021) on the injured list. May and Kershaw plan to return before the end of the regular season. May recently knocked out 10 batters in five innings in his fifth Triple-A start of the season. He built up to 70 pitches. Kershaw, meanwhile, recently underwent an epidural injection and has returned to throwing, although there is no immediate timetable for him to return to the Major League mound.
With this trio on the shelf, the Dodgers will be looking to Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heane and rookie Ryan Pepiot as rotation options – although Pepiot could soon be sent off by May. Even without a pair of marquee arms like Kershaw and Buehler, it’s a formidable group thanks to outstanding performances from each of Gonsolin (2.24 ERA, 116 1/3 innings pitched), Anderson (2, 81 ERA, 128 1/3 innings) and Heaney (1.16 ERA, 32.3 percent strikeout rate in 31 innings).
Obviously not being able to sign Buehler into a hopeful postseason rotation, but the group of Urias, Gonsolin and Kershaw is still a formidable top three, with May, Anderson and Heaney all potential playoff starters as well. playoffs. The larger question for the Dodgers is what Buehler’s recovery will be and the outlook for 2023.
Even in the event that Buehler needs surgery from Tommy John and is expected to miss the majority of the 2023 season – which, to be completely clear, was not stated or even implied by the team – he would always be a lock to offer. contract. The 2022 campaign was the second in a two-year, $8 million deal buying out Buehler’s first two years of officiating. He will be eligible for arbitration four times as a Super Two player, meaning he has two raises left. Due to this year’s limited workload, he will only receive a modest $4.25 million salary increase, making it a no-brainer for the Dodgers to keep him in the fold.
That said, the extent of Buehler’s recovery period will surely impact the Dodgers’ offseason direction and inform how aggressively they seek rotational help. The Dodgers are currently set to see Kershaw, Anderson and Heaney all potentially walk as free agents, so they’ll definitely be in the game to start throwing the assist this offseason.
