THANK YOU: Refresh for chart and more analysis It’s Theatrical Forever For Disney/Marvel Studios Black Panther: Wakanda Forever which precedes yesterday afternoon’s estimates with $10Mbut not so much for the studio’s animated film strange world who did $4.2M. This will result in estimates by industry in 3 days and 5 days of $43M and $55M to $60M for wakanda forever, and a disastrous 3 and 5 days of $15.8M and $20M to $23M for strange world which cost $135 million. Not the worst for Disney animation, especially on Thanksgiving, but it’s close: Their $140 million original animated film treasure planet was in freefall in 2003 with $12 million and $16.5 million over 3 days. A former Disney executive once told me, “They’re very good at making the best worst-case decision” and in the scenario of strange world, who sends it to Disney+ over the holidays. Even if the pic is in theaters, this kind of big-screen release will at least give it some props mojo. Everyone remembers the drama trying to find its footing, especially among adult titles.
Speaking of adult titles, while Sony and Black Label Media’s Dedication compared to the public box office, $1.8 million compared to yesterday in 3,405 theaters, and $10.2M for the 5 days and 3 days of $6.1Mhowever, industry sources tell us that Netflix previewed the release of Glass onion: a mystery at loggerheads kills all adult competition, and it’s only in 638 theaters. We hear that Wednesday was very close to $2 million, with the 3 days and 5 days projected on $8.5M and $12.3M, which is incredible for adult counter-programming right now. We’ll let you know if Netflix reports any numbers. If Rian Johnson directed, Ram Bergman produced a thriller sequel that hits the high end, that’s a whopping $19.2,000 theatrical average and proof that adults still want to go to the movies. As we told you before, especially since many of these films are in the single digits, they are too niche, hence their lower ticket sales. Any dev who’s tearing up what’s currently working on the big screen in old age, go splash cold water on your face and remember last year’s star-studded package by Ridley Scott Gucci House with Lady Gaga, Adam Driver, Jared Leto and Al Pacino. This film, when there were more worries about Covid, posted $14.4 million in 3 days and $22 million in 5 days. Just a refresher on the type of movies that bring adults out.
Knives Out 2 is burying adult dishes like ($1.1M Wednesday, $5 million second weekend and $7 million 5 days), bones and all ($921,000 Marry, $2.4M 3 days and $3.9M 5 days) and the expansion of Amblin’s by Universal The Fabelmans who did $400,000 in 638 rooms for a forecast $2.2M 3 days and $3 million 5 days. At the high end, the Steven Spielberg-directed film will close with a theatrical average of $4.7,000.
And get this iSpot shows Netflix spent less than the majors to open Glass Onion at $4.3 million compared to $16 million for Disney strange world, $14.8 million from Sony on Dedication, $10.8 million from Searchlight on The menu and Uni’s $8.5 million on The Fabelmans,
RelishMix reports that Knives Out 2 had a massive social media reach of 307.7 million, an almost 3x increase from the first which opened at $26.7 million and $41.1 million in 2018. Among those socially activated on the cast there is Kate Hudson at 17.7 million, Dave Bautista at 15.4 million, Edward Norton at 4.1 million, Janelle Monáe at 7.4 million while Daniel Craig is still off the grid.
Said RelishMix about the buzz, “Convo on Glass Onion is positive with mixed curiosity as to how it will stack up to the success of the first release. Fans are speculating on the materials, whodunit in the cast with chatter about the ‘smoothest transition for a 007 ever’ – plus support for Dave Bautista’s tattoos and adoration of Ed Norton, Kate Hudson and Janelle Monae. Fans are discussing sliding streaming windows and openly debating whether to wait or go – while wondering how surprising the story reveals will be.
While ticket sales will drop today due to the holidays by -16%, they will be up by tomorrow on Black Friday, a big day for cinema, by +93%.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Early numbers and take the 3 days and 5 days with a grain of salt as projections are always off at this point in a Thanksgiving stretch. Disney/Marvel Studios Black Panther: wakanda forever is leading today with $9.5 million, even with yesterday and a $50 million Outlook from Wednesday to Sunday. However, strange world, as we expected, it falls below its $30 million projection with $23M-$27M. Including previews, today looks like about $4.5M at $5 million for this animated film. Encanto last year had a $7.6 million opening day. Apparently, strange world filled the gap on the first mornings with Encanta, and I hope this momentum will continue.
Sony and Black Label Media Dedication in 3,405 theaters sees $1.7M today with $9M to $10M for the 5 days, placing third. Projector of The menu has an estimate $1 million for Wednesday for $6M to $8M over 5 days.
Right now I’m hearing erratic reports about Glass onion: a mystery at loggerheads. Some have it ahead of all pre-sale adult counter programming, while others don’t.
WEDNESDAY AM: It’s not like people weren’t going to the movies yesterday as we head into Thanksgiving: Disney/Marvel Studios’ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever made $9.5M in 4,258 theaters on Tuesday, propelling the Ryan Coogler-led sequel past three centuries with $303.7Mmaking it the 7th film to cross this threshold this year after Top Gun: Maverick, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Jurassic World: Dominion, Minions: The Rise of Gru, The Batman and Thor: Love and Thunder.
However, there really was no excitement last night to see previews of Disney Animation. strange world, which, as we told you, doesn’t look so good for the holiday season. Excluding previews which started at 6 p.m., strange world only did $800,000, which is arguably the lowest for a Disney Thanksgiving theatrical release in the era of theaters holding previews. That’s almost half of what Encanto did in its Tuesday preview a year ago with $1.5 million, and that’s when there were more pandemic fears among moviegoers. A startup of more than 30 million dollars over five days for strange world at 4,174 theaters is what we thought, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if it’s lower because the weekend belongs for the third time to wakanda forever, who is now likely to make over $50 million from Wednesday to Sunday. Audience rating on strange world is currently low on Rotten Tomatoes at 62%, but only from 50 reviews.
wakanda foreverTuesday, +36% from Monday, is its third highest weekday (apart from Friday) after its first Monday and Tuesday which brought in $11.1 million and $12.6 million, respectively.
Projector of The menu was second yesterday with $1.3M at 3,228 sites, up 26% from Monday for a five-day cumulative total of $11.3 million at 3,211. While the A24s Midsommar –good gender composition here for Menu- took a different trajectory, opening on a Wednesday in July, the Anya Taylor Joy film directed by Mark Mylod accounts for 4% of the Ari Aster film in its first five days.
Fathom Events and Angel Studios The Chosen: Season 3 job $1.02M-19% compared to Monday for a cumulative total of $11 million.
New line/DC black adam finished fourth on Tuesday with $690,000 in 3,372 locations, +17% for a cumulative total of $158.3M. Dwayne Johnson’s film is available digitally for $24.99 or as a 48-hour rental via PVOD for $19.99. On January 3, the film will be released on DVD, Blu-Ray and 4K.
In 5th place, the romantic comedy George Clooney and Julia Roberts from Universal, ticket to paradise, who did $490,000 in 3,268 theaters, +22% compared to Monday for a cumulative total of $62.4M. The photo is already available to watch on PVOD.
The war movie distributed by Sony on Black Label Media Dedication made $615,000 in 2,982 rooms which started the sessions at 6 p.m. This figure is higher than the Thursday preview figure for Focus Features’ BlackKKKlansman which made $600,000 before seeing a Friday of $3.6M and an opening of $10.8M, however, it was a very different time of year, i.e. the end from the pre-pandemic summer of 2018. The Jonathan Majors-Glen Powell film is expected to gross $7M-$8M over five days.
United Artists Releasing’s broad expansion previews of bones and all did $345,000 as it heads to 2,700 theaters today. For five days, apart from the previews, the genre picture directed by Luca Guadagnino made $146.7K of five theaters in New York and LA. A single-digit five-day hold is expected.