Iit was supposed to be a moment of victory and celebration, a repeat of the annexation of Crimea but on a much larger scale. The “referendums” organized in the Russian-speaking regions of southern and eastern Ukraine were to mark the success of Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation”. In the newly conquered territories, locals were supposed to shed tears of gratitude for their liberation from Ukrainian “fascists” and throw flowers. At home in Russia, Mr Putin’s subjects were meant to cheer the Tsar on, thanking him for gathering in Russia’s historic lands and making them proud, as many did in 2014 when he brought Crimea back into the fold.
By now, Ukraine’s military was supposed to have disintegrated, its government to have collapsed, and its president to be in exile. Europe, dependent on Russian energy, was supposed to have bowed to the inevitable, as it had done on several occasions during its 22 years of presidency. All in time for Mr. Putin’s 70th birthday on October 7.
Instead, Mr. Putin’s army is massacred, the Ukrainians curse him and the Russians flee for fear of being sent to the front. Mr Putin’s threat to freeze Europe has been heightened by two mysterious explosions which destroyed the Nord Stream gas pipelines, built under the Baltic Sea at a cost of some $18 billion, possibly permanently. But the West is more determined than ever to help Ukraine. America sends more rocket systems that devastate Russian armies.
From September 23 to 27, Russia held fake “referendums” in the occupied Ukrainian provinces of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Luhansk, asking residents if they wanted their lands annexed by the invading power. It was a hastily staged farce: “votes” were collected on park benches, in shops and even in police stations. In Zaporizhia, armed guards were on hand to make sure voters ticked the box for annexation.
Then, it seems, the authorities decided to make it easier for themselves by encouraging potential opponents to flee. On September 26, the occupiers opened their checkpoints and allowed the Ukrainians to leave. The Economist counted hundreds of vehicles passing through Russian-held territory. Two days later, Russian-installed occupation governments announced “results” ranging from an 87% “yes” vote in Zaporizhia to 99% in Donetsk.
On one level, referendums don’t make sense. But they are a sign of the panic that has gripped the Kremlin since its dramatic losses in early September, when Ukrainian forces liberated more of their own territory in days than Russia had taken in the previous five months. . As Russian pundits lamented the losses and nationalist extremists demanded revenge, Mr Putin decided to escalate. He called for the annexation of the territory, announced the “partial mobilization” of the reserves and made even more nuclear threats.
The mobilization had two objectives: to strengthen the mutilated Russian army, which is struggling to hold a front of 1,000 km, and to strengthen patriotic feeling by placing Russia on a war footing. The annexation was a warning to Ukraine to halt its advance and to its Western allies to stop helping it. So far, none of that has worked.
The draft has severely undermined (largely passive) Russian support for Mr. Putin’s “special military operation” by making it clear that this is a big, tough war that will cost far more Russian lives. He also revealed some of his lies and failures. On September 21, Mr Putin promised that only people with previous military experience would be called up. Yet, within hours, draft notices were being handed out to anyone the state henchmen could grab…THIS specialists, teachers, doctors, chronic patients. The authorities have sent draft quotas to private companies and local authorities in remote villages. Some new conscripts were ordered to purchase their own first aid kits.
As a result, it is no longer just Ukrainians who are trying to escape Mr. Putin’s invasion, but also ordinary Russians. At least 260,000 people have fled Russia since September 21. Queues at the borders with Kazakhstan and Georgia stretch for several kilometres. “Traitors,” said Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of the Duma (the lower house of parliament). “Maybe it’s best they leave.” At the same time, the authorities have taken measures to stem the exodus and trap draft evaders by setting up mobile recruitment offices on the borders with Georgia and Finland. North Ossetia, the Russian region bordering Georgia, has banned entry from other parts of the country.
Those who cannot leave are sabotaging Mr. Putin’s plans. Twenty recruiting offices were set on fire. In Dagestan, a restive Muslim republic in the Caucasus, people have clashed with police. Nine thousand kilometers to the northeast, in Yakutia, an ethnically Turkish region rich in resources and hard hit by conscription, people demonstrated under slogans such as “No to mobilization” and “No to genocide”. In Moscow itself, the government and its propagandists are desperately trying to contain the panic. Sergei Sobianin, the mayor, said the capital’s military enlistment organization will conduct a review and recall what he said were wrongly issued advisories.
Russian state propagandists are rapidly changing their tune. Gone are their bravado and joy. They are now complaining about incompetent military officials who are damaging Mr. Putin’s reputation. One of the main warmongers, Margarita Simonyan of the state broadcaster Russia Today, recently spoke of the risk of mutiny. Vladimir Solovyov, another war fanatic, publicly complained about the Russian military’s lack of preparedness.
Instead of strengthening his hand, Mr. Putin revealed his weakness. It has few good options. But by annexing territories that Russia does not even fully control, he risks undermining Russia’s territorial integrity. Russia could become a country with fluid and internationally unrecognized borders. If he declares the annexation of the whole Donbass region, he will actually say that parts of Russia are occupied by Ukrainian troops – and he will look weak if he cannot drive them out, which he probably can’t. If he were to annex only the Ukrainian territory he held before the February 24 invasion, it would be to admit that his immense and bloody war has come to nothing. Mr Putin had hoped to make Russia bigger. Instead, he made it much darker. It won’t really be a 70th birthday. ■
Read more about our recent coverage of the Ukraine crisis.