The F-22 Raptor fighter that flew from Virginia to South Carolina on Saturday and shot down an alleged Chinese spy balloon with a missile strike has dramatically upended the latest crisis in US-China relations.
But hopes of an eventual stabilization of the rocky relationship had already been dashed after the balloon – which Beijing said was a wayward “civilian unmanned airship” collecting weather data – flew over North America during the week US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was preparing to travel to China to meet with President Xi Jinping.
Blinken called off his visit on Friday, saying the balloon, which pierced America in its flight across the country, violated American sovereignty. In a rare apology, Beijing expressed “regret” and said the weather balloon had veered off course due to high winds. The United States dismissed the explanation, saying it was clearly a spy balloon.
As US Navy ships sailed to the coast off South Carolina to retrieve the debris for analysis, Beijing said the use of force was a “gross overreaction and serious violation.” international conventions”.
Bonnie Glaser, China expert at the German Marshall Fund, said the Biden administration concluded that China had committed a “hostile act” and that the impact on the relationship “should not be underestimated”.
“The window of opportunity to put China-US relations back ‘on the path of stable development,’ which Biden and Xi agreed to do in Bali, may be missed,” she said, referring to the leaders’ meeting held at the G20 in November.
A person familiar with the US administration’s thinking said China had “completely undermined” efforts to establish “a floor” in the relationship.
“When China so blatantly undermines it in such a visceral way for the American people . . . it really undermines what Blinken intended to do,” the person said. Committed to trying to smooth relations and advance common global interests, it would take “two to tango” for that, the person said. “Our goal remains the same . . . but we have to see the sincerity.
Evan Medeiros, a former top White House adviser on Asia, said the two countries were now in “jumping territory”, meaning it was unclear how things would play out, but it would depend a lot on Beijing’s next steps.
“They were contrite because they are so obviously at fault, but if they now play the outrage card, we will be entering very controversial territory,” Medeiros said.
One question that could suggest how China will react is whether Xi approved the mission or was unaware of it. In 2011, the United States claimed that then Chinese President Hu Jintao was unaware that the PLA had tested a stealth fighter hours before meeting with US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates.
The person familiar with the administration’s thinking said the United States did not know if Xi knew about the mission.
Some experts believe the regret that came from China on Friday suggested Xi was caught off guard. According to one theory, the Chinese president is unlikely to approve such a mission at present, as he is on a charm offensive to bring business back to China and needs to build better relations with Washington.
Dennis Wilder, a former top CIA China analyst, said the incident could lead to greater tension, especially if Washington confronts Beijing with ironclad evidence. “There is a danger of more aggressive Chinese surveillance of US reconnaissance flights that daily fly over the East and South China Seas, increasing the chances of accidental collisions.”
Blinken said flying the ball over the United States was “detrimental to the substantive discussions we were prepared to have” during his visit.
But Chinese officials were already skeptical of the United States’ willingness to take action, especially after Washington recently agreed to more tech controls targeting China and struck a basic sharing deal with Manila.
The balloon episode also comes as Chinese officials prepare for a possible visit to Taiwan by United States House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a Republican lawmaker. The PLA launched its biggest-ever exercises around the island in August after President Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei.
“If McCarthy goes to Taiwan, everything will start from scratch,” said a former Chinese diplomat.
In Washington, Biden came under pressure from Republicans to knock the ball down before it even reached the Atlantic. The United States did not say whether the balloon transmitted information to China in real time during the flight or whether the PLA should have retrieved the balloon to access the intelligence it collected.
Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, said the situation had been inflamed by members of Congress. “The ball issue was brought forward by hawkish congressmen to prevent Biden from gradually improving his relationship with China,” Wu said.
Wu argued that the United States would have taken action “much sooner” if it was truly a spy device. US officials said the balloon was not shot down over land to avoid potential ground casualties and said they gleaned intelligence as it flew over the United States.
Medeiros said that while China had been relatively measured in its response, much would hinge on whether Xi was being pressured as Chinese citizens watched video of the incident.
“Maybe Xi Jinping will change his tune and feel the pressure to respond confidently. . . Then we go to the races,” he added.
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