BOSTON, September 28, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — Roboshuttles like those from EasyMile and Navya are a new and exciting mobility solution that has garnered increasing interest over the past decade. They are all electric, autonomous and a promised solution to last mile journeys in cities. However, over the past few years, IDTechEx has observed a drop in roboshuttle sales and a reduction in the number of active roboshuttle businesses. This is one of the main conclusions of the new IDTechEx report “Heavy autonomous vehicles 2023-2043: trucks, buses and shuttle robots”.
Leaders in the Navya field have reported a drop in sales since peaking in 2018 when it sold more than 60 units. Last year, he only sold 19. Others weren’t so lucky and had to close their doors and go out of business.
COVID has certainly had an impact on the industry. Social distancing measures and other precautions made testing of any autonomous transport very difficult in 2020. Further trial and testing activities resumed in late 2021 and into 2022. This allowed robotaxis to begin deployments commercial with fleets of dozens and hundreds of fee-paying vehicles. in operation. The same upturn has not been seen in the roboshuttle industry, with new trials remaining small and supervised.
IDTechEx Heavy Autonomous Vehicles Report showed that there are still major hurdles facing the roboshuttle industry that will need to be overcome before we can see commercial deployments of these vehicles. IDTechEx considers the three biggest hurdles for roboshuttles to be certification, general autonomous challenges, and finding a place in the world for their use cases.
Approval
Homologated vehicles are vehicles that you or I could buy today. They have passed numerous technical control tests, design specifications and minimum equipment requirements to verify and validate that they will be safe. When robotaxi companies, self-driving truck companies and self-driving bus companies retrofit vehicles, they are working with certified vehicles. This means authorities have no concerns about the vehicle’s roadworthiness and only have to worry about the new autonomous systems.
Roboshuttles are not homologated vehicles, which introduces a whole new set of complications. They’re built from the ground up to be self-driving, which means they lack conventional driving controls, such as the steering wheel, pedals, and the like. They also lack some key features that make vehicles roadworthy, such as exterior mirrors. This means they need additional exemptions to be allowed to test on the road. Exemptions are used in most autonomous testing to allow current autonomous systems to prove their safety in road testing. Laws are also changing and evolving to allow these vehicles to operate commercially now that they are proving safe. The difference for roboshuttles is that they also need a separate set of rule changes that will allow them to drive vehicles on public roads without conventional controls or other necessities for human drivers.
Autonomous delivery vehicle developer Nuro is making progress in this area. Its small, pod-like vehicle is undergoing commercial trials, making chargeable deliveries to the homes of residents of California, Arizonaand Texas. Its vehicles are designed to transport only goods and therefore would not benefit from certain conventional characteristics in any way. The NHTSA recently ruled that occupant-free vehicles do not require features designed to protect occupants, such as seat belts and airbags. While this shows that changes can occur, robo-shuttles will carry occupants and therefore changes will likely occur more slowly.
Building robotic shuttles from scratch helps optimize space for human transportation. These vehicles are usually capable of carrying 10 to 20 passengers in a bit larger space than a family sedan. But without these conventional features, it creates another set of regulatory challenges. IDTechEx believes these challenges are part of the reason roboshuttles have not been able to evolve at the same pace as robotaxis.
Autonomy
Proving that an autonomous system is safe is very difficult. The big players and leaders in roboshuttle racing, Waymo and Cruise, have racked up millions of miles of road testing in California alone, with fleets of hundreds of vehicles. Since roboshuttles don’t have the same fleet size or ability to test in large areas (most trials only have 1-5km routes), it’s much more difficult for them to prove their safety. Additionally, without conventional controls allowing a safety driver to sit behind, regaining control of the autonomous system is also more complicated. Test riders will typically use a remote control box, with a joystick to control movement and buttons to neutralize or stop the vehicle. This limits the speed at which vehicles can be tested, with 25 km/h being a typical limit imposed according to research from IDTechEx.
Slow vehicles, short test routes and limited number of fleets mean that development and testing of the autonomous system will be slower for roboshuttles than for robotaxis.
Find a place in the world
Perhaps one of the biggest questions about robotic shuttles is what their purpose will be. The use case for robotaxis is clear, Uber has proven incredibly popular, and a driverless version promises to be cheaper and safer. For autonomous trucking, it’s simple, there are currently not enough truckers, and autonomous trucking on the highways between distribution centers is entirely feasible. But what will be the purpose of roboshuttles.
Companies in the sector paint a picture of these vehicles speeding through cities, responding to people’s individualized routes. But they will compete with a well-established public transport system of buses, trains, metros and trams in any city where they are deployed. Not to mention cycling and walking, which already make up a large part of last-mile journeys.
Many cities are aiming to decongest the roads by encouraging more walking, cycling and other micro-mobility solutions. So what will be the impact of autonomous roboshuttles on the adoption of these more active modes of transport, will they encourage people to abandon personal cars or will they discourage walking?
With only small test demonstrations so far, IDTechEx hasn’t seen how these new vehicles will be adopted into the public transport system. They could be a must-have solution for last-mile journeys, or they could be another vehicle clogging up already busy roads.
A little hope
There is always interest in roboshuttles, with some players showing big investment and commitment. Cruise is one of the leaders in the autonomy industry and recently launched a commercial robotaxi service in San Francisco. It uses a fleet of Chevrolet Bolts from parent company GM, but its long-term ambition is to operate using a fleet of bespoke roboshuttle-like autonomous vehicles called Origin. GM and Cruise are already planning the production of these vehicles, and with their financial might, it would be unwise to bet against them. The Cruise Origin will share the homologation hurdle, as it is designed without conventional controls and exterior mirrors etc. Cruise has applied to NHTSA for approval to deploy the unconventional vehicle, but there doesn’t appear to be any progress here yet. When it comes to other obstacles, Cruise has some advantages. Cruise is already demonstrating its self-sustainability through its deployments and testing in California. Cruise has also provided an easier to understand use case. The vehicles will operate more like robotaxis, carrying up to six people and capable of higher speeds than the likes of EasyMile and Navya. The downside is that it will cost more than the public transport-focused competition.
Another big player to watch is ZF, which recently acquired shuttle maker 2getthere. ZF has a catalog of sensors it can bring to the vehicle, including radar and LiDAR, and is working on an autonomous robotic version of 2getthere’s GRT. The vehicle has already been tested. ZF will still have to certify the vehicle and show that its autonomous systems are up to snuff, but it has some good ideas for deployments. He has already talked about turning disused railway tracks into dedicated roadways for these vehicles. It would be cheaper than bringing a railroad back into service, easier for the autonomous system by better controlling its operating environment, and could even circumvent some certification issues by operating off public roads.
Roboshuttles are an exciting new form of transportation that is quickly becoming less new and less exciting. While other forms of autonomous transportation are starting to pick up speed, it looks like roboshuttles are still struggling to get out of line. They face significant challenges in licensing, proving standalone security, and finding a sweet spot in use cases. Despite this, IDTechEx has seen some activities that still give hope for the future of this industry. More information on how this industry will develop and the main players in the field can be found in the full IDTechEx Heavy-Duty Autonomous Vehicle report. See www.IDTechEx.com/HeavyDutyAV for full report details, including sample pages.
IDTechEx Mobility Research
This research is part of IDTechEx’s broader mobility research portfolio, which tracks adoption of autonomy, electric vehicles, battery trends and demand on land, sea and air, helping you navigate in everything that awaits you. Learn more about www.IDTechEx.com/Mobility.
About IDTechEx
IDTechEx guides your strategic business decisions through its research, subscription and advisory products, helping you take advantage of emerging technologies. for more information contact [email protected] or visit www.IDTechEx.com.
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