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The commander of US forces in the Indo-Pacific region has accused China of pursuing a “boiling frog” strategy, increasing tensions in the region with increasingly dangerous military activity.
Admiral John “Lung” Aquilino said that during his three years leading the United States in the Indo-Pacific region, China has accelerated the pace of its military development and matched its capabilities increasing amounts of more destabilizing behavior.
“It’s getting more aggressive, they’re getting bolder and it’s getting more dangerous,” Aquilino told the Financial Times in an interview before handing over command to Admiral Samuel “Pappy” Paparo next week.
Aquilino said China was escalating its aggressive behavior through a “boiling frog” strategy, in which it gradually raised the temperature so that the ultimate danger was underestimated until it was too late.
“China’s bad behavior that deviates from international legal standards must continually be described. And this story must be told by all nations in the region,” Aquilino said. He added that Beijing was committed to a “might equals right” strategy across the region.
The former Top Gun fighter pilot led the U.S. command for the Indo-Pacific region during a period of strained relations between the United States and China. He was in charge when China responded to then-US President Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022 with unprecedented military exercises. He was also at the controls when a suspected Chinese spy balloon flew over the United States last year.
When asked what the most distressing incident was during his command, Aquilino said it was around the time of Pelosi’s visit, in part because China misinterpreted the trip as a radical change in American policy. At the time, there were calls on Chinese social media for the People’s Liberation Army to shoot down Pelosi’s plane.
“The Chinese misinterpretation made me fear that they might take actions that could be detrimental,” Aquilino said.
Chinese warplanes now regularly fly over the median line of the Taiwan Strait, which previously served as a buffer between the sides. More recently, the Chinese coast guard has also become more assertive around the Taiwanese islands of Kinmen and Matsu.
“This is the pressure campaign in action. I’ve seen it grow in scope and scale, and it’s not slowing down,” Aquilino said. “It’s getting more and more aggressive.”
Aquilino said China has not flown any spy balloons over Hawaii, Guam or the continental United States since the February 2023 incident. When asked if any had flown over the United States, he replied, “Let me just say that we did not fly over the United States. »
He said the “best example” of China’s coercive activity was around the Second Thomas Shoal, a reef located inside the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. China claims this feature despite a 2016 international arbitration tribunal ruling that it has no sovereign rights over the submerged reef.
Chinese coast guard ships have in recent months taken aggressive measures — including firing water cannons — to prevent the Philippines from resupplying marines from the Sierra Madre, a rusting ship that Manila beached on the reef in 1999 to reinforce his demands.
“I’m certainly very concerned about Second Thomas Shoal,” Aquilino said. “Philippine coast guard and military personnel were injured. This is a step beyond a pressure campaign.”
Since Joe Biden and Xi Jinping held a summit in San Francisco in November, Chinese warplanes have ended the “risky and coercive” aerial interceptions of US spy planes that were common over the previous two years.
Aquilino welcomed the development, but said it was clear that China was using the interceptions as a “dedicated tool in its toolbox” to be deployed as desired.
He added that the PLA pressuring the Philippines while reducing its assertive activities toward the United States demonstrated a “might equals right” strategy of intimidation. “They think they can get away with it.”
Aquilino said he was concerned about other threats, including North Korea, which launched more missiles in 2023 than its previous cumulative total. He said he was paying particular attention to cooperation between North Korea and Russia and deepening ties between China and Russia, which he said was “incredibly concerning.”
As he prepares to hand over command in Hawaii to Paparo, Aquilino said one of his key messages is the need to focus on speed and urgency in terms of operations and delivery of capabilities, including with allies. He explained that this includes the sophisticated networks that connect sensors and weapons.
“The ability to prevent this conflict will require a sense of urgency and speed in delivering our new modernization capabilities. [and] our posture initiatives,” said Aquilino
