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Ipolitician makes a speech but no one is there to hear it, does he make a sound? Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission since 2019, might have reflected on this while addressing the largely empty hall of the European Parliament in Strasbourg on April 23. Despite bombastic claims that the powerful executive branch of the European Union should be held to account, only a handful of the more than 700 European deputys appeared. Certainly, those lawmakers who deigned to attend were treated only to a platitudinous account of a mundane meeting of European leaders the previous week. But the lack of cheers, the lack of Nothing-for Mrs von der Leyen among her fellow citizens of EU the bubble is enough to raise eyebrows. Because soon, the head of the 30,000-strong Brussels machine will have to convince a majority of them European deputys to support her for a second five-year term. The aura of inevitability of a second von der Leyen term has diminished of late.
The 65-year-old German is not the first Commission president to address a largely empty parliament (European deputyIt is often said that people are busy with other vital matters). However, she is the first to seek a second term since a new constitutional treaty changed the way in which the government EU was organized in 2009. An attempt to make Brussels’ top brass more accountable to the public, by linking their appointment to the results of European Parliament elections, was well-intentioned, but can lead to unpredictable results. As an outgoing candidate, and the only credible one, Ms. von der Leyen has every chance of staying after the elections from June 6 to 9. But his path to reappointment is more difficult than it once seemed. At worst, an accident could leave the EU abandon a competent and experienced leader in a time of war, economic torpor and potential Trumpism.
In theory, two things need to happen for Ms von der Leyen to get her extension until 2029. The first is that the EUThe 27 national leaders are expected to appoint her to the post, likely immediately after the June vote. Then a majority of the 720 new European deputyWe must “elect” the president of the commission, in the strange language of Brussels (even in the false Russian democracy, an election pits several candidates against each other). In practice, a third condition must be met: only a politician belonging to the political group that won the most seats in the House is likely to be nominated by the leaders or approved by Parliament. As a leading figure in the center-right European People’s Party (PPE), well ahead in the polls, Ms von der Leyen should enter the process in an iron position. But then comes politics.
In theory, most national leaders should like him. Ms von der Leyen pleased Southern Europeans by creating a post-pandemic recovery fund backed by joint borrowing; Northern Europeans have had their concerns about climate change addressed; Eastern Europeans appreciate his unwavering support for Ukraine. The only leader openly campaigning against Mrs. von der Leyen is Viktor Orban, Hungary’s fierce prime minister, but he has no veto to exercise; if leaders fail to reach consensus, they can simply outvote him. German Olaf Scholz will probably support his compatriot even if they are not from the same party. Some leaders have criticisms, like the Pole Donald Tusk, who belongs to the same group as Mrs von der Leyen but does not like the recent migration agreement that she defended. Pedro Sánchez in Spain is not a fan of his staunchly pro-Israeli stance. After announcing he was considering becoming prime minister, he could aspire to a top European job, possibly chairing meetings of EU leaders.
Perhaps the biggest obstacle to a second term for von der Leyen is Emmanuel Macron. The French president helped her get the job, but now seems less enthusiastic. Aware that his political career will end after the next presidential election in three years, he wants a more federalized political system. EU like his inheritance, for example financed by more joint borrowing. Could a new euro-wallah at the top go further, faster? Promoting a new face in Europe would help him distract from what appears to be an electoral blow in France in June: Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally voted twice for Mr. Macron’s party during what is the last national vote before the presidential election. vote.
Parliament will prove even trickier. A coalition of at least three groups will be needed to achieve a majority. The centrist alliance that supported Ms von der Leyen in 2019 controlled 444 seats. It was 70 more than she needed, but she made it out with just nine votes remaining. This time, polls predict his groups will head to a margin of just 34 seats. Already some of them assumed PPE its allies, such as the French Republican Party, announced that they would not support it. Expanding his coalition by including, for example, the far-right acolytes of Giorgia Meloni would allow him to cross the finish line. But that could compromise her appeal among liberals whose votes she also needs. The German is a technocrat at heart, with little experience of behind-the-scenes politics; parliament likes to flex its muscles to remind the world that it matters (or that it exists). This gives rise to unpredictable results.
Leyen brings down the law
A failure for a candidate presented by EU If the leaders were to gain a majority in parliament, it would result in a deadlock. If not Mrs von der Leyen, then who? Mario Draghi, the former Italian prime minister and head of the European Central Bank, will soon unveil a report on the future of the European economy which should fit with Mr. Macron’s federalist vision and dazzle European deputyI’m looking for a figurehead. But he is 76 years old and played no role in EU election campaign. Others from the center-right, like the Greek Kyriakos Mitsotakis, would face as many questions as the outgoing president. It is therefore probably Mrs von der Leyen who will win the prize. But the path to a second term risks being tortuous. ■
Read more from Charlemagne, our columnist on European politics:
How a conservative conference turned into a crisis for liberalism (April 17)
What happens if Ukraine loses? (April 11)
Germany’s Liberal Democrats have become desperate troublemakers (April 4)
Also read: How the Charlemagne Column got its name
