Ukraine has for months requested long-range missiles and drones from its Western allies, but the United States and Europe have so far refused to meet those requests for fear that they will be used for strike inside Russia. Without additional resources to bolster its long-range capabilities, Ukraine may have to continue to rely on the modified drones – and Moscow is now likely trying to keep up with them.
“The key success factor was surprise. Russia just didn’t expect something like this,” said one of the people, who works with the Ukrainian government. “Now they will be ready.” The Ukrainian, and second person close to the case, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive operation.
The strikes killed three Russian soldiers and damaged two planes, the Russian government admitted this week, without however describing the causes of the damage. The technology on board the plane was Ukrainian-made and not supplied by the United States or any other Western country, the people said.
The British Ministry of Defense rated this week that the strikes damaged two Tu-95 heavy bombers at Engels Air Base, noting that “if Russia assesses the incidents as deliberate attacks, it will likely view them as one of the most significant failures in terms of strategy of force protection since its invasion of Ukraine”.
The National Security Council declined to comment, as did Ukraine’s Defense Ministry.
Ukraine has not yet taken responsibility for the strike. But Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak appeared to taunt Moscow in a post on Twitter after the attacks. “If something is launched in the airspace of other countries, sooner or later unknown flying objects will return to the starting point,” he tweeted. “The earth is round.”
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with Ukrainian Defense Minister Olekseii Reznikov in the hours following Monday’s strikes, according to a DoD reading of the call. Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh did not confirm the content of the conversation, but said the Ukrainians “make the decisions on the ground in terms of targeting in terms of when they conduct an operation. What we provide is security assistance, so no, we weren’t necessarily notified or aware of a strike.
This week’s attacks are not the first time that locally produced Ukrainian technology has hit major Russian targets. In April, Ukraine launched its Neptune missiles at the Russian cruiser Moskva while it was operating in the Black Sea. These strikes forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to operate farther from shore while keeping other ships in port for fear of losing more assets.
State arms maker Ukroboronprom has said for months it has been working on a drone program with a range of more than 600 miles, without disclosing details of the project. In October, the company posted on Facebook that it was “putting the finishing touches on this one.”
Kyiv managed to cause serious damage even without drones and long-range ammunition. In August, several explosions at Russia’s largest air base in Crimea caused extensive damage, with satellite photos showing a tarmac littered with the scorched hulls of at least eight fighter jets destroyed or heavily damaged in the attack.
Two months later, several small unmanned boats attacked Russian navy ships moored in the city’s port, causing minimal damage but sparking fresh fears in the Kremlin that their fleet was in constant danger.
And in November, a number of smaller Ukrainian drones targeted the fleet headquarters in Sevastopol in occupied Crimea, damaging the building.
Lara Seligman and Alexander Ward contributed to this report.
