kyiv, Ukraine (AP) — A major new U.S. military aid program will help Ukraine avoid defeat at home. war with Russia. Winning will still be a long process.
Weapons and ammunition in the $61 billion military aid package should allow Ukraine to slow down the bloody advance of the Russian army and block its strikes against troops and civilians. And it will buy Ukraine time – to plan long-term how to take back the fifth of the country currently under Russian control.
“Ultimately this offers Ukraine the prospect of remaining in the war this year,” said Michael Clarke, visiting professor of war studies at King’s College London. “Sometimes in war you just have to stay at it. You just have to avoid getting knocked down.
THE The US House of Representatives approved the package Saturday after months of delays from some Republicans wary of U.S. involvement abroad. It was passed by the Senate on Tuesday and President Joe Biden said he would sign it on Wednesday.
The body of a woman killed by Russian bombing in Chernihiv, Ukraine, Wednesday, April 17, 2024. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco)
The difference could be felt within days on the front lines in eastern and southern Ukraine, where the much larger Russian army has slowly taken control of territory against Ukraine. Massively under-equipped Ukrainian forces.
Approval of the aid means Ukraine may be able to release artillery ammunition from dwindling stockpiles it has been rationing. Other equipment will soon come from American stocks in Poland and Germany, and later from the United States.
The first deliveries are expected to arrive early next week, Ukrainian MP Davyd Arakhamia said. President Volodymyr Zelensky Servant of the People Party.
But opposition lawmaker Vadym Ivchenko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament’s national security, defense and intelligence committee, said logistical challenges and bureaucracy could delay shipments to Ukraine by two to three months. , and that it would take even longer before they reached the front line.
Although details of the shipments are confidential, Ukraine’s most urgent needs are artillery shells to prevent Russian troops from advancing, and anti-aircraft missiles to protect people and infrastructure from missiles, drones and bombs.
What comes first is not always what front-line commanders need most, said Arakhamia, the Ukrainian lawmaker. He said even a military giant like the United States doesn’t have stockpiles of everything.
“The logic behind that first package was: you (the United States) find our top priorities and then you see what you have in the warehouses,” Arakhamia said. “And sometimes they don’t match.”
A woman mobilizes to raise awareness about the plight of Ukrainian prisoners of war in Kyiv, Ukraine, Sunday, April 21, 2024. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco)
Hopes for future progress for Ukraine still depend on faster delivery of Western aid, lawmakers acknowledge.
Many experts believe that Ukraine and Russia are exhausted by two years of war and will not be able to launch a major offensive – capable of achieving big strategic gains – until next year.
Always, Russia advances at several points along the 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front, using tanks, wave after wave of infantry troops and satellite-guided glide bombs to strike Ukrainian forces. Russia also strikes power plants and strikes Ukraine’s second largest city, Kharkovwhich is only about 30 kilometers from the Russian border.
Ivchenko said the goal of Ukrainian forces now is to “hold the line” until the bulk of the new supplies arrive by mid-summer. They will then be able to concentrate on reconquering recently lost territories in the Donetsk region.
“And probably … at the end of the summer we will see movements, offensive movements on the part of the Ukrainian armed forces,” he said.
Some military experts doubt that Ukraine has the resources to launch even small offensives very soon.
U.S. funding “can probably only help stabilize the Ukrainian position for this year and begin preparations for operations in 2025,” said Matthew Savill, director of military science at the Royal United Services Institute, a think tank.
In the best-case scenario for Ukraine, U.S. aid would give commanders time to reorganize and train its military, applying lessons learned from its failed summer 2023 offensive. could also galvanize Ukraine’s allies in Europe to increase aid.
“So it wasn’t just about Ukraine and the United States, but our entire coalition of 51 countries,” said U.S. Rep. Bill Keating, a Democrat who visited Kiev on Monday as part of a delegation of four members of Congress.
Zelensky insists that Ukraine’s war goal is to retake all of its territory from Russia, including Crimea, seized illegally in 2014. Even if the war ultimately ends in negotiations, as many believe many experts, Ukraine wants to do this by adopting as strong a position as possible.
A volunteer makes camouflage netting at a facility producing equipment for Ukrainian soldiers in kyiv, Ukraine, Monday, April 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco)
Whatever happens on the battlefield, Ukraine continues to face variables beyond its control.
Former US President Donald Trump, who is seeking to retake the White House in November’s election, said he would end the war within days of taking office. And the 27-nation European Union includes leaders like Hungarian President Viktor Orbán and Slovak Prime Minister Richard Fico, who have opposed arming Ukraine.
Ukraine’s allies have restrained from supplying weapons for fear of an escalation or the exhaustion of their own stocks. Ukraine says that to win the war it needs longer-range missiles that it could use for potentially game-changing operations, such as cutting off occupied Crimea, where Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is based.
It wants Army tactical missile systems, known as ATACM, from the United States and Taurus cruise missiles from Germany. Both governments have resisted calls for their deployment because they are capable of striking targets deep within Russian territory.
The new bill authorizes the president to send ATACMS to Ukraine “as soon as practicable.” It is unclear what this will mean in practice.
Sometimes promised weapons arrive late, or not at all. Zelensky recently stressed that Ukraine is still waiting for the F-16 fighter jets promised a year ago.
Ribbons in the colors of the European Union and Ukraine are tied to a tree next to the memorial wall for Ukrainian soldiers killed during the war in kyiv, Ukraine, Monday, April 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco)
Meanwhile, Russia is using its advantage in troops and weapons to push back Ukrainian forces, perhaps seeking to make maximum gains before new Ukrainian supplies arrive.
For weeks it hit the small eastern town of Chassiv Yarat the cost of 900 soldiers killed and injured per day, according to the British Ministry of Defense.
Capturing this strategically important city would allow them to move towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, key Ukrainian-controlled towns in the eastern Donetsk region. It would be a significant victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who Western officials say is determined to topple Ukraine’s pro-Western government.
Russian pressure was aimed not only at gaining territory, but also at weakening Zelensky and propping up critics who call his war plan a failure, said Clarke of King’s College London.
The U.S. aid plan reduces the likelihood of a political crisis in Ukraine, and U.S. President Mike Johnson deserves credit for pushing the plan through Congress, he said.
“He held history in his hands,” Clarke said.
___
Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine
