Paolo Costa is a BJJ black belt, but he doesn’t use his grappling for offense. Costa has attempted just two total takedowns in seven UFC fights, finishing one for a meager takedown rate of 0.21 per 15 minutes. Instead, Costa is first and foremost a striker. 11 of his 13 career wins are by KO/TKO, and he throws a lot of striking volume. Costa lands almost seven significant strikes per minute, a huge rate.
Costa’s aggressive striking style combined with Rockhold’s waning ability to take strikes makes Costa a good candidate to win by KO/TKO.
Pick: Paulo Costa wins by KO/TKO/DQ (-165)
2 Choose Parlay: Kamaru Usman and Paulo Costa Moneyline (-143)
Merab Dvalishvili vs Jose Aldo
Merab Dvalishvili hasn’t traditionally been a big finisher. Seven of Dvalishvili’s nine UFC fights have gone to decision, and six of his seven UFC wins have come by decision. Part of the reason Dvalishvili is inclined to go the distance is due to his grinding style. Dvalishvili is very controlled, smothering opponents with takedowns and control time. Dvalishvili is averaging an incredible 7.3 kills per 15 minutes and has racked up 63 total kills, fourth among all active UFC fighters.
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Jose Aldo has also been prone to go the distance as it ages. Five of Aldo’s last six fights have gone to decision, and Aldo hasn’t finished anyone in over three years.
This match has the makings of a long fight between two very tough fighters who haven’t been big finishers lately.
Take: More than 2.5 turns (-210)
DraftKings Fantasy UFC
Merab Dvalishvili is one of the best fantasy scorers among all UFC fighters due to his fast style. Dvalishvili generates high takedown volume and control time with his sweltering game, which he combines with good hitting volume to rack up huge fantasy scores. Dvalishvili is averaging 117 DraftKings Fantasy Points (DKFP) per fight, one of the highest ratings on the slate.
