There are just two rounds of matches left in the Champions League group stages (you can catch all the action on Paramount+) and already the knockout rounds are starting to take shape. Five teams (Manchester City, real MadridBayern Munich, Naples and, remarkably, Club Brugge) are complete. Three know they won’t play in the last 16. Here’s the shape of the tournament as we enter its most decisive phase:
The top level: Title or bust
These teams should be disappointed with anything less than a place in the semi-finals and frankly even that might not be enough, such is their talent profile.
1. Manchester City (–)
2. Real Madrid (–)
It could be argued that this particular iteration of Madrid is better than the one that won it all last year. Aurelien Tchouameni led an influx of youngsters into midfield and Vinicius Junior continues to thrive. Best of all, however, was a belligerent and daring defense that featured Antonio Rudiger’s fearless and slightly mad chase for the header that earned his side a draw with Shakhtar Donetsk.
3. Bayern Munich (–)
Serious suitors: if things go well, why not us?
It’s certainly not beyond the realm of the imagination that any of these teams could win the European Cup in Istanbul in May, although it may take a few lucky breaks for the tournament to go ahead as planned. .
4. liverpool (–)
Going down a level may seem perverse for a team that has just scored seven goals, but even in this victory Rangers you could see cracks emerging that simply weren’t present in Liverpool’s best iterations. Jurgen Klopp’s switch to a 4-4-2 / 4-2-4 has left his side extremely vulnerable in the middle when opponents counter, as Gabriel Martinelli and Scott Arfield have shown in recent days.
5. Napoli (+1)
Four games is still a small sample size to gauge them against their European peers, but Napoli’s Serie A form offers plenty of indications that these Champions League results are very, very real. Here is a team that averages 2.55 expected goals per game in Serie A and Europe. For comparison, Manchester City is at 2.42. These two teams could be the most devastating attacks on the continent.
Black Horses: Unlikely Suitors, but Suitors All the Same
These teams are unlikely champions, but so were Real Madrid at this time in 2021. It may take a change of circumstances, or a new tactical plan, or simply Karim Benzema having the season of your life, but it is possible. It’s certainly not likely, but stranger things have happened.
6. chelsea (+1)
That they played their 2-0 victory so much AC Milan against 10 men, it’s harder to read Graham Potter’s side clearly, but in the early days the signs are encouraging. It looks like Chelsea are a little looser and more expressive than under Thomas Tuchel without sacrificing as much defensive rigidity as their former manager gave them. During those many games in the German’s tenure, we were saying similar things about encouraging progress, but on the right path forward. We know how it ended… and Potter has more time on his side.
seven. Paris Saint-Germain (-2)
How can you seriously accept the idea of PSG winning the Champions League when they are torn apart by the kind of infighting, ego mismanagement and philosophical vacuum supposedly reserved for the British government? With Kylian Mbappe ask, who knows how long their best player will stay at the club and what state of mind he will be in if he is forced to stay? Even though fit, this side still didn’t look better than a good, but not great, Benfica side.
On the way to the knockout stage
These teams are either already in the bottom 16 or it would take a significant swing in the race to cost them a spot in the top two of the groups.
8. InterMilan (+4)
9. Borussia Dortmund (+1)
10.Benfica (+4)
11. Club Brugge (+1)
In our bold predictions before the fourth round we asked if Club Brugge are simply taking advantage of a remarkable streak from their goalkeeper Simon Mignolet and some ice cold shots from the opposition? They almost certainly are and Mignolet’s face-to-face denial of Alvaro Morata only strengthens the evidence base that suggests it won’t last. But who are we to rain on their parade right now – the Belgians are bound for the knockout stages and that’s a standout achievement even if it’s all there is to their European campaign this season.
12.Tottenham (+1)
In the mix
As the end of the group stage nears, these teams are not out of it yet, but there is still a lot of work to do.
13. Port (+5)
14. Salzburg (+1)
15. RB Leipzig (+5)
There are still plenty of question marks over their form in the Bundesliga, but recent matches have at least seen an improvement in the performances of both Christophe Nkunku and Timo Werner. Both are players who seem to need a target man by their side; it could risk making Marco Rose’s side a little too open if they are in the last 16, but for now these two are thriving on the European stage.
16.Marseille (+8)
17. Sportsman (-1)
One of the most intriguing storylines of the final two group games may well be which of Marseille and Sporting can join Tottenham in the round of 16 or whether the two could even topple Antonio Conte’s side. The latter know they can do it but their discipline has crumbled against their French opponents over the past fortnight, costing them what could have been top spot in Group D.
Marseille, meanwhile, have the feeling of a team that is really on the rise (despite the home defeat against Ajaccio in League 1). Alexis Sanchez goes back the years and could be the perfect mix of fights spirit and talent to propel OM into the round of 16.
18. AC Milan (-9)
19. Shakhtar Donetsk (-2)
20. Atlético Madrid (-1)
Atletico Madrid will have to take the bull by the horns if they want to qualify for the knockout stages and that’s terrible news for any neutral observer. There are few more nerve-wracking sights in top-flight European football than watching Diego Simeone’s men attempt to break through a stacked defence; if Antoine Griezmann can’t work miracles, the Europa League may be the best Atleti can hope for.
21. Dinamo Zagreb (+4)
Fight for the Europa League
The best-case scenario for these teams might just be that they get third place and descend to the second tier of European competition.
22. Eintracht Frankfurt (+1)
23. Barcelona (-14)
If Viktoria Plzen does Barcelona the biggest of favours, we could still envision a scenario where by Xavi continue to win everything, but it’s extremely unlikely that we will see this club in the second half of the Champions League. Failure to qualify paints this summer’s remortgage and subsequent spending spree in an uncomfortable light. Joan Laporta and company knew they could be given a tricky group – just as they were last year – and that their passage to the latter stages could be decided in a straight fight with the third seeds. The draw has not been kind to them and now tens of millions of much needed revenue may well be gone.
24. Seville (+3)
25. Juventus (-3)
Did anyone else feel that the Juventus hierarchy announcing that Massimiliano Allegri was staying on was a punishment for their disappointing players? They can’t fire their whole team, they apparently can’t afford to fire their manager, but the one thing they really can’t afford is not qualifying for the Champions League. And right now, it looks like it might be a while before we see The Old Lady again.
26. Ajax (-2)
27. Bayer Leverkusen (-1)
28. Maccabi Haifa (+3)
A word of apology for Maccabi Haifa, who have so often been left languishing at the bottom of our power rankings almost by default. There was of course no realistic way to get to the knockout stages, but throughout their first four games, especially those in Israel, they proved to be a disciplined team that could at least make it difficult for their opponent to get away with it a lot. shots (Inter and Juventus are among those allowing more). Their memorable victory on Tuesday is nothing short of what they’ve earned in four games. They could still make the Europa League.
29. Copenhagen (+1)
Out of the picture
These teams were eliminated from the Champions League.
30. Celtic (-2)
31. Rangers (-2)
32. Viktoria Pilsen (–)
