Tropical Storm Ian is gaining strength in the Caribbean Sea, and much of the Florida Peninsula and Panhandle are included in the forecast cone for what could become a major hurricane in the coming days.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis urged Floridians to take precautions and declared a state of emergency for all 67 counties on Saturday ahead of the impacts of Tropical Storm Ian, which is expected to undergo a period of rapid intensification throughout the throughout the day.
Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical cyclone’s maximum sustained winds (tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes) increase by at least 35 mph in 24 hoursaccording to the National Hurricane Center.
Here’s everything the FOX Forecast Center knows about this significant threat to the southeastern United States next week.
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Where is Tropical Storm Ian?
From Sunday morning, Tropical Storm Ian was in the Caribbean Sea and centered about 300 miles south-southeast of the Cayman Islands and about 570 miles from the western tip of Cuba.
Ian had maximum sustained winds of around 50 mph and was moving west-northwest at 14 mph.
The Hurricane Hunters has several missions planned for Tropical Storm Ian to collect data that will be used to help meteorologists refine their forecasts.
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Where are the watches and warnings in effect?
A hurricane warning has been issued for Grand Cayman and the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa.
A hurricane warning means winds of at least 74 mph are possible in the alerted area. A warning is usually issued 36 hours before the first expected occurrence of tropical storm-force winds (over 39 mph), conditions that make preparations difficult or dangerous.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Mantanzas.
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What is the forecast for Tropical Storm Ian?
A significant intensification of Tropical Storm Ian is expected over the next few days.
The National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast shows Ian will become a hurricane later Sunday or Sunday evening, and it could be at or near major hurricane strength (Category 3 or stronger) Monday or Monday evening before reach western Cuba.
By mid-workweek, the future hurricane is expected to be somewhere between the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the general vicinity of the Florida peninsula, possibly with winds above 120 mph.
That would make Ian a Category 3 or stronger hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
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“We’re confident the track will move over Cuba, but once it slowly begins to drift towards the Sunshine State, that’s where the patterns, the spread increases with continued intensity,” said FOX Weather meteorologist Jason Frazer. “Now we are very confident that this is going to be a hurricane by the time it hits the United States. But, could it impact those of you in Tampa? Could it impact those of you in Tallahassee? Or could we even potentially see the eye crossing the border from Alabama and Florida? That’s what we keep going back and forth with here.
Warm water and relaxed wind shear over the northwest Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico are expected to allow the system to rapidly develop into a major hurricane.
“There’s a lot of fuel in the Gulf of Mexico. The average temperature is around 87 degrees and the maximum water temperature is around 89 degrees,” Frazer said. “It’s just fuel for these hurricanes. Hurricanes like high temperatures of 80 degrees and low wind shear. And there’s no wind shear right now in the Gulf of Mexico.”
WHAT IS WIND SHEAR?
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Water temperatures in this part of the Caribbean Sea are in the upper 80s, a few degrees above average, providing enough fuel for this system to intensify over the next few days.
However, an inhibiting factor could be land interaction with Cuba early next week before it reaches the Gulf of Mexico by mid-week.
What are the expected impacts of Tropical Storm Ian in the Caribbean?
Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected in the region by Sunday evening.
Tropical storm conditions are possible over Little Cayman and Cayman Brac by Sunday evening or early Monday.
Hurricane conditions are possible inside the Cuba hurricane watch zone by Monday evening or early Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible by late Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Cuba tropical storm watch area Monday evening and Tuesday.
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What threat will Tropical Storm Ian pose to Florida and the US Gulf Coast?
Tropical Storm Ian is forecast to track in a general eastern direction from the Gulf of Mexico and could be near the Florida peninsula in the middle or end of the work week.
An overwhelming majority of computer forecast models suggest the storm will likely be a hurricane as it heads into the continental United States.
Each yellow line on the map represents a different computer forecasting model solution.
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However, forecasts for newly developed tropical cyclones are difficult, so don’t be surprised if the forecast for Tropical Storm Ian undergoes several changes – some of which could be significant – over the next few days.
Storm track indications from the various computer forecast models currently range from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to near or off the Atlantic coast of Florida, so everyone in that general area should start their preparations now. in case of a potential hurricane next week.
For now, it looks like at least 1 to 3 inches of rain will fall in the Florida Keys and southern Florida through Tuesday morning, with localized amounts of up to 5 inches possible.
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Beyond Ian’s expected impact on Florida, the hurricane will then track inland somewhere over the southeastern United States, or it could track near or along parts of the east coast at the end of next week and into the weekend.
So the bottom line is that it’s still too early to know exactly where Tropical Storm Ian is headed, but be aware that there is a growing threat of a major hurricane affecting the southeastern United States around the mid next week, followed by potential impacts spreading north into other parts of the eastern United States by the end of the week.
The Florida Emergency Management Agency is advising residents to prepare now for the coming storm. Floridians can check their evacuation zone by tapping their address on an interactive map.
The FOX Forecast Center will be watching this system closely as it strengthens and tracks across the Caribbean in the days ahead.