The Buffalo Bills take on AFC East rival New England Patriots in a key Week 13 game on Thursday night, and they’ll have to do it without defensive star Von Miller. The three-time first-team All-Pro, who signed as a free agent this offseason, will miss Thursday’s game with what he called “lateral meniscus damage” in his right knee. He said he hopes to return before Buffalo’s game next week against the Jets. Miller leads the team and ranks 12th in the league in sacks (eight). On Thursday Night Football, the Bills (8-3) will face a 6-5 Patriots who have won three of their last four games.
Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET. Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite in Caesars Sportsbook’s latest Patriots vs. Bills odds while the over/under for total runs scored is 43.5. Before making any choices between Bills and Patriots, be sure to check out NFL predictions and betting tips from Stephen Oh, resident Patriots expert and SportsLine data scientist.
Famed Accuscore co-founder Oh simulates every game 10,000 times using the SportsLine projection model. Last season, he went 97-81-1 on his NFL picks. And he’s on an incredible run in games involving the Patriots. Oh is 16-7 with his last 23 ATS picks involving New England.
Now Oh has focused on Bills vs. Patriots and has just locked in his TNF picks and predictions. You can head over to SportsLine now to see Oh’s picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines and trends for Patriots vs Bills:
- Difference Patriots vs. Bills: Buffalo -3.5
- Patriots vs. Bills over/under: 43.5 points
- Patriots vs. Bills money line: Buffalo -190, New England +160
- BUF: Bills rank second in league in scoring offense (28.1 points per game)
- NE: Matthew Judon leads the NFL in sacks (13)
- Patriots vs. Bills picks: See the picks here
Featured game | New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Why bills can cover
Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen can take advantage of the New England defense with his legs. The dual-threat quarterback is averaging 6.9 yards per carry this season. Last week he rushed for 78 yards and a touchdown in the win over the Lions. He’s rushed for at least 78 yards in three of his last four games. That bodes well against a Patriots defense that was nicked by running quarterbacks, allowing 6.3 yards per carry to flaggers.
Plus, the Bills have a dangerous big-play receiver in Gabe Davis. The third-year wide receiver is having his best season, averaging 19.7 yards per reception, which leads the NFL. See which team to choose here.
Why the Patriots can cover
New England is facing a quarterback who has struggled in the passing game recently. Bills signalman Josh Allen, who suffered an elbow injury in Week 9 against the Jets, has had a passer rating below 81.0 in four of his last five games. Last week against Detroit, he averaged just 6.0 yards per attempt and had an 80.8 passer rating.
That bodes well for a Patriots pass defense that has been excellent this season. The defense leads the league in completion percentage allowed (58.4) and ranks third in passer rating allowed (78.8). New England also ranks in the top 10 in yards allowed (6.72) and interceptions (12). See which team to choose here.
How to make choices between Bills and Patriots
Now Oh has broken down Patriots vs. Bills from every angle. He looks at the points total and he discovered a crucial x-factor that makes one side of the spread a must. He’s just sharing what it is, and which side to support, at SportsLine.
So who wins the Bills against the Patriots on Thursday Night Football? And what critical factor makes one side of the spread unavoidable? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Patriots spread you should jump to, all from the NFL expert who is 16-7 on ATS picks involving New England, and find out.
