TTHE STORY of the German Greens is a series of eruptions once a decade. Forty years ago, an eccentric gang of environmentalists, pacifists and anti-nuclear activists gathered in Karlsruhe to create a political party. In the early 1990s, after the party stumbled over not supporting German reunification, it merged with civil society groups in the old east, giving an awkward name that survives today: Alliance 90 / Les Greens. In 1998, the party joined the German federal government for seven years as a junior partner of the social democrats of Gerhard Schröder (SPD). In 2011, in the polls after the Fukushima nuclear disaster, they took control of their first German state: Baden-Württemberg, in the rich south-west, where Winfried Kretschmann, a communist who became a centrist, remains today the first green minister. Now a fifth eruption is looming.
As the Greens prepare to celebrate their 40th anniversary on January 13, they are firmly established as the second most popular party in Germany (behind Angela Merkel, the conservative Christian Democratic Union of Angela Merkel, the CDU), and have a thirst for power which would have scandalized their hippie ancestors. The next elections in Germany must take place in the autumn of 2021, if the “grand coalition” CDU (and his Bavarian sister party, the CSU) and the SPD survives that long. Whenever this happens, it will almost certainly return the Greens to government, probably alongside the CDU/CSU. It is even conceivable that Germany would supply the world with its first green leader (with the exception of a short Latvian first presidency in 2004).
A confluence of factors explains the success of the Greens. German federal structure offers small parties the opportunity to gain experience and respect State (States). Political fragmentation and green flexibility – a coalition with conservatives here, ex-communists there – see them stationed in 11 of the 16 states, as many as SPD. This formed a cadre of green professionals in the art of government, anchored the party across Germany and stoked the appetite for power. He also gave the party an effective veto in the Bundesrat (German upper house, which includes representatives of state governments), where he tightened energy and climate laws.
The party itself has also taken shape. For the past two years, the Greens have been led by Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock, a cheerful, telegenic couple who embody the triumph of the party’s “Realo” (pragmatic) wing over its hard core “Fundis”. Mr. Habeck, 50, a former gibberish minister in the state of Schleswig-Holstein in the north of the country, with a relaxed attitude, quickly became one of the most popular politicians in Germany; Ms. Baerbock, 39, is a sharp mind MP who knows his party backwards. Where previous co-leaders (one from each wing) led fiefs of separate parties to keep the peace, the current couple share staff, philosophy and even an office. The Greens are mostly united and the thirst for power of the leaders widely shared: a recent party congress re-elected them with majorities the size of North Korea. This leaves them well-placed to take advantage of the new obsession of German voters with climate change.
Add meat to the greens
Above all, the policies of the Greens have widened. “We are working hard not to be seen as a single party,” said Habeck. Take public investment, where the green plan contrasts refreshingly with the pro-austerity dogma of CDU and others. The party wants to compensate for years of underinvestment by borrowing 35 billion euros ($ 39 billion) per year to modernize transport, digital, energy and other infrastructure, to loosen the constitutional “debt brake”, which limit deficits, to be exploited more generously EU rules. (It would be difficult but possible, insists Mr. Habeck.) A second component is a social policy targeting the dissatisfied SPD the electors. Greens want higher minimum wages, rent ceilings and make the German social system more generous by relaxing previous reforms.
Foreign policy is more delicate. Most Greens abandoned their instinctive pacifism long ago. They take a firm stance on China (the party opposes Huawei’s invitation to build the 5g networks) and Russia (against the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline supported by the Kremlin). Yet such impulses are not a broader strategy. And since 1999, when the party split over whether to support an intervention in Kosovo, it has only become more skeptical about military adventures abroad. Party Resists What Habeck Calls “Symbolic” NATO target to devote 2% of GDP defense, vaguely urging instead to focus on capabilities and cooperation with European allies. However, France, Germany’s most important partner, wants it to step up its military aid in places like the Sahel. “European soldiers, including the Germans, must be ready to deploy under certain circumstances,” said Habeck, while acknowledging that the issue is “extremely difficult” for his party.
Difficult compromises are forged on the climate, a problem of party signature too. Although they have fought to get rid of their image of humorless eco-moralists rejecting bans against motorists and carnivores, the Greens are again talking about bans, which Mr Habeck described as “condition of freedom” ” The Greens want to phase out coal and the combustion engine (in new cars) by 2030. They also want cheaper trains, more expensive flights, EU tariffs on non-climate friendly imports; and a higher price on carbon emissions, plus compensation for those affected. Yet, overall, the party seeks to harness the power of markets and innovation, not to scare voters with radical proposals involving deprivation. The party assiduously courting business; Mr. Kretschmann, his most successful politician, closely embraces the automakers that employ hundreds of thousands of people in his state. However, there are limits. The Greens will not give up their founding opposition to zero carbon nuclear energy.
The common thread is a bit of everything: growth that respects the climate and does not harm businesses or the poor; investment plus tax liability; a foreign policy combining ethics and realism, all wrapped up in a EU flag. On the basis of this, the party comes closest to a political philosophy, as Mr. Habeck pointed out. “Society has changed and the idea of one-of-a-kind parties is not working,” he said. “If you think the Greens have the answer, you can vote for us, whether you’re an old lady or a punk in Berlin.”
To some extent, the data support the party’s claim to transcend left-right divisions. In the European elections in May, where the Greens came in second with 20.5%, they collected almost as many votes CDU from the SPD. (They won among all voters under the age of 60.) And while the Germans adopted greener lifestyles, the party paid homage, embracing local customs and traditions. “I like beer tents, I like my Dirndl“, Glousse Katharina Schulze, who led the Greens to their best result in Bavaria in 2018 after campaigning accordingly.
A recent poll found that voters favor CDU/CSU– Green Coalition after the next elections. Once unthinkable, such green “black” (conservative) rapprochements spread: Mr. Kretschmann has led one since 2016 and Hesse, another wealthy state, has one led by the Conservatives. (In Austria, the Greens agreed this week to join the People’s Party of Sebastian Kurz in a coalition.) There was a dry race after the 2017 elections in Germany, when the CDU/CSU, The Greens and the Liberal Liberal Democrats have tried (and failed) to form a “Jamaica” coalition. But next time, reaching agreement on eurozone policy, social policy, asylum and the climate could be tricky, and CDU/CSU would seek green concessions on security policy that the party base might find it hard to swallow.
However, Greens will likely ensure Germany’s next election is the first in post-war history CDU and SPD do not occupy the first two places. Could they lead a green-black government? It is not impossible: they briefly dominated the polls last spring. A coalition led by the Greens with the SPD and Die Linke on the left is another option, although the numbers aren’t there yet. But the luck of a green chancellor means that Mrs Baerbock and Mr Habeck have to face the delicate question which it would be. Many insiders discreetly admit preferring Ms. Baerbock, but the charisma and profile of Mr. Habeck make her the favorite.
Such thoughts belie some Greens who fear that the party’s current voting rate will prove to be as fleeting as the previous ones, especially if an economic downturn shifts the climate among voters’ concerns and the party withers under the control of an impending election. It could happen, but neither of the two ruling parties seems willing to initiate a recovery, and the Greens’ newly diversified portfolio of policies is a cover against the whim of voters. For now, the party appears to be on a regular path to government. ■
This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition under the title “From protest to power”
