I had hoped that after a 5-1 performance in Week 3, The Process had gone through a few weeks of mediocrity and was ready to start the sprint. It was not. Instead, things went in the opposite direction. The Six Pack went 2-4 last week, narrowly avoiding a 1-5 result.
So I guess it could have been worse?
Even if the results were not what I expected, I can at least draw some lessons from it. More importantly, Maryland could be really good this year. Not winning the Big Ten well — losing to Michigan seriously hurts those chances — but maybe the fourth or fifth-best team in the conference. Maybe if we learn at least one lesson like this every week, we can go 6-0 once before the end of the season!
Maybe it will even happen this week. There’s only one way to find out. Let’s come to the pickaxes. All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
games of the week
Featured game | Ole Miss Rebels vs. Kentucky Wildcats
No. 7 Kentucky at No. 14 Ole Miss: I don’t trust these two teams very much. Kentucky may be a top 10 team in the AP poll, but I fear for the sport if it’s a top 10 team in the nation right now. The Wildcats struggled to get past Northern Illinois last week, and it wasn’t a fluke. It’s an attack that struggles to move the ball consistently and lacks explosive plays. That’s not Ole Miss’s problem; the rebels rank 10th nationally in explosive rate of play and have been particularly exceptional on the field. The problem is that Ole Miss hasn’t played against anyone yet. His best win is either a 42-0 shutout against a Georgia Tech team that just fired its coach or last week’s eight-point win over Tulsa.
Neither inspires much confidence. At the end of the day, I think Ole Miss’s offense is good, but not as good as it looked, and it will have a much harder time against Kentucky. With the Rebels’ offense likely to slow, combined with low confidence in Kentucky’s offense to do anything special, under betting is an attractive game. Ole Miss 27, Kentucky 17 | Under 54
Featured game | Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State No. 9 at No. 16 Baylor: Baylor is a difficult team to understand offensively. On a per-shot basis, the team’s EPA ranks 13th nationally. It’s awesome! Its success rate of 50.2% ranks 15th. It is also exceptional! But that same offense ranks 105th in explosive play rate. What does it mean? Well, that means the Bears are too reliant on stacking up play after play to sustain long runs. Also, Baylor’s conversion rate of 39.1% is well above the national average of 26.2%, and I don’t recommend relying on third-and-long conversion. It rarely works for long, especially when encountering good defenses.
Oklahoma State’s defense hasn’t been as good as it was last year, but it’s still above average. Part of that is down to its timing, but fundamentally it’s a solid unit. We saw these teams play two close games against each other last season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this year’s matchup was a similar one. In this situation, I will take the points. Oklahoma State 31, Baylor 28 | Oklahoma State +2
Lock of the week
Featured game | Air Force Falcons vs Navy Midshipmen
Navy to Air Force: We are coming to a long tradition… and I fear it will soon end. Hopefully it’s not this weekend. For those new to The Six Pack, Service Academy Unders has long been a staple in our diet. The concept is simple. Service academies run optional offenses. This means they run the ball more often than any other team in the country. The Air Force is No. 1 in the country with an execution rate of 89.1%, while the Navy is third with 82.9%. The army is second. No other team runs the ball more than 70% of the time (UMass is at 69.6%). When the teams run the ball, the clock does not stop. When the clock does not stop, it limits overall possessions. When there are fewer possessions in a game, fewer points are scored.
Also, while the optional offense might give the academies an edge over other teams that aren’t used to it, that’s not the case here. These defenses face optional attacks every day in practice. Put those factors together and here’s what you get: under bets have gone up to 41-9-1 in games between the service academies since 2005. The problem is that the books have spread and started to reduce the totals for these games in recent seasons. That didn’t stop the unders from cashing in, but they will eventually crack the code. Until they do, we’re riding the wave. Air Force 20, Navy 13 | Less than 37.5
Underdog of the week
Featured game | Kansas Jayhawks vs. Iowa State Cyclones
State of Iowa in Kansas: Speaking of surfing, I’ve been in Kansas all season and I’m not stopping now. The Jayhawks won and covered again last week, improving to 4-0 on the season and ATS. They covered an average of 17.5 points per game. Still, while it should be obvious to everyone by now that this team is much better than expected, it’s a home dog this weekend against an outside Iowa State team. of the national top 50 in offensive and defensive success rate.
The Cyclones have been the brave underdogs of the Big 12 for the past few seasons, but despite starting 3-0 and winning against Iowa, they’re not the same team this year. Kansas resumed their role in the Big 12, and I think Kansas is the better team in this game. Not significantly better, but the Jayhawks offense will be the best unit on the field. This makes it difficult to pass up the Jayhawks’ catch points. Kansas 31, Iowa State 30 | Kansas +3
Weekday Friday Night Fade
Featured game | Boise State Broncos vs. San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State to Boise State: Boise State is a train wreck, but the market hasn’t figured it out yet. Last week the Broncos lost to UTEP 27-10. The performance was so lackluster that it led to the firing of the team’s offensive coordinator, Tim Plow. The decision to fire Plow caused the team’s starting QB, Hank Bachmeier, to enter the transfer portal.
It’s not a good sign when your starting QB calms down after the first month of the season! Considering how poor Boise looks and his only wins have come against New Mexico and UT Martin, they’re not a team that should be favored by a touchdown against anyone right now. . Not even at home. No, blue grass no longer offers the same advantage as before; Boise is just 6-4 at home since the 2020 season and 4-6 ATS. San Diego State 23, Boise State 20 | San Diego State +6.5
Upset of the week
Featured game | Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Texas A&M Aggies
No. 17 Texas A&M in Mississippi State: I haven’t been a huge Texas A&M fan this season, and I think my worries about the Aggies have been justified. It’s not just the loss of the state of Appalachia; it’s the offense as a whole. Even in wins, the Aggies have been abysmal with the ball, and they rank 106th nationally in points per drive, 107th in completion rate and 88th in EPA per snap.
Yet here I am, taking them as my upset choice! While Mississippi State’s offensive numbers have been strong, they’re severely lacking in the explosive play department. That could be a problem against this Texas A&M defense. Also, if you look at the Bulldogs’ resume, the best win is against Memphis. Against LSU, the Bulldogs struggled to move the ball, and I can see that repeating itself here. Texas A&M wins this game enough times to make it a worthwhile bet. Texas A&M 27, Mississippi State 21 | Texas A&M (+148)
games of the week |
1-1 |
3-6 |
-3.6 |
Lock of the week |
0-1 |
2-3 |
-1.3 |
Globally |
2-4 |
14-14 |
-0.57 |
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