Schiff launched the first salvo last month by openly admitting his long-standing interest in the seat, telling a Los Angeles television station that after his failed bid for House leadership he would “consider run for the Senate if Senator Feinstein decides not to run for re-election.” Schiff also met with Feinstein to inform him of his intentions, according to two people familiar with the exchange.
Feinstein’s plans remain a wildcard. The 89-year-old senator’s position has eroded as California Democrats are wary of her centrism and the San Francisco Chronicle details her perceived cognitive decline. in an explosive play this spring this bolstered POLITICO’s previous reports of Feinstein’s ability to serve.
But while it’s widely believed the California senator won’t seek another term in 2024, she hasn’t said anything explicit about her intentions – a spokesperson for Feinstein contacted about the story said that it had “no updates” – and people who know her say she bridles to be backed into a corner. Californians eyeing Feinstein’s seat took care to show respect for the longest-serving woman in U.S. Senate history and have, for the most part, avoided overt positioning.
But the relaxation is unlikely to last long.
“Just because of the timing and its age, the playbook peaks here,” said a prominent California Democratic grouper who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive campaign issue. “Interested people have spoken to people about their interest.”
Schiff is one of several California Democrats in the House who could run for the seat. Porter, who just beat a Republican challenger in one of the most competitive races in the state, is “absolutely considering a 2024 Senate campaign,” according to admirers across the state, according to a person close to Porter.
And Khanna is asked to come forward by progressives aligned with Sen. Bernie Sanderswhose Khanna co-chaired the presidential campaign. Lee plans to spend the holidays discussing his plans with his family, according to a source familiar with his intentions.
All of these potential candidates would bring assets to the race. And under California’s two-primary system, a race for the U.S. Senate is likely to yield two Democrats facing off in the general election, as happened when Harris defeated the then-Rep. Loretta Sanchez in 2016.
Both Schiff and Porter are terrific fundraisers, though House de Porter’s competitive contest has exhausted much of its resources. Schiff has gained national stature as a fierce antagonist of former President Donald Trump and for his role in the impeachment proceedings. Porter quickly became a star for her acerbic, whiteboard-assisted grilling of executives.
Lee has long been considered one of the best candidates to win a job if Feinstein steps down. California Governor Gavin Newsom vetted Lee when looking for a replacement for former California senator Kamala Harris, who is black and Asian American, and later pledged to choose a black woman if he managed to make another Senate appointment. The longtime Oakland congresswoman is widely respected in the Bay Area and could muster deep black support.
And Khanna is beloved by progressives and could divert rivers of cash from his affluent Silicon Valley neighborhood.
The next few months could determine the terrain. Candidates will strive to secure fundraising endorsements and commitments — and freeze their haters in the process.
“Anyone sophisticated enough to think about running for one of California’s two U.S. Senate seats is fully aware of the dynamics, and the dynamics include the ability to get out early, claim their position, and discourage challengers.” , said Darry Sragow, a former Democratic political consultant and publisher of the California election analyst Target Book.
But anyone is unlikely to have the land all to themselves. The majority Democratic electorate in California makes a seat in the United States Senate a position for life. Even if the race doesn’t affect the balance of power in the Senate, it’s sure to be a multimillion-dollar scrimmage.
“It’s not something you do at the last minute. It takes tremendous preparation, tremendous organization and messaging, money and all of those things,” Boxer said. “Anyone who is interested in this, with all due respect to Senator Feinstein, should start getting the support they need.”
