NOTOT SINCE at the time of Eamon de Valera, Ireland had a leader as globally recognizable as Leo Varadkar. The two men owe their importance to Irish relations offended with Great Britain. De Valera emerged as the main surviving leader of the Easter uprising against British rule in 1916. Varadkar rallied EU support in an impasse with Boris Johnson on Brexit terms last year.
Yet while de Valera has spent half a century in and out of his high office, building modern Ireland in the process, Mr. Varadkar faces the bag. Polls suggest center-fine party Fine Gael will drop to third place in an election on February 8, falling behind not only traditional center rival Fianna Fail, but also Sinn Fein, the shock leader. If so, it would be the first time since the 1930s that Fianna Fail and Fine Gael were not among the first two.
Mr. Varadkar’s career may have culminated at the age of 41, less than three years after becoming not only Ireland’s youngest taoiseach (Prime Minister), but also his first openly gay man and the first to have a non-European heritage (his father, a doctor, is from Mumbai).
Fine Gael had based his re-election campaign on Varadkar’s success in negotiating an agreement with Britain on Brexit and on GDP growth of almost 5% last year, compared to 1.8% for the rest of the EU. But, says Professor Jane Suiter of Dublin City University, a series of unfortunate events disrupted Mr. Varadkar’s plans. Voters are concerned about a near collapsing health service and a cost of living and housing crisis. Ireland has some of the highest rents in the world and the rise of homelessness.
Theresa Reidy of University College Cork says that conservative voters who want to punish the government may consider Micheal Martin of Fianna Fail as another leader who would likely do similar work to Mr. Varadkar. Since 2016, Fianna Fail has supported the minority government of Fine Gael in a trust and supply agreement of which it is now tired.
Angry young voters turn to a range of green and center-left parties, but mostly to Sinn Fein. Formerly the political wing of the Provisional Irish Republican Army (IRA), the party is led by Mary Lou McDonald, a charming Dubliner with no history of involvement in the IRA. The other two major parties have both pledged to flee Sinn Fein for its past support for the violence, but forming a government without it will be difficult, as Fianna Fail has vowed not to continue its deal with Fine Gael. Most of Sinn Fein’s policies are well on the left. It promises a rent freeze, early retirement and generous public spending on almost everything. He also undertook to organize a referendum on the union of Ireland.
“Sinn Fein has never been in government in Dublin before, so they are not held responsible for current problems like Fianna Fail and Fine Gael,” said Reidy. “They are responsible for certain other things, that is for sure, that is why the elderly, who remember the Troubles, do not rush on them in the same numbers. But the young people do not remember them. And [they] are those who cannot afford to buy or rent a house and who get € 3,000 in car insurance. “■
This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition under the title “The disturbing rise of Sinn Fein”