welcome to The ringNBA Odds Machine for the 2020-21 season. Based on team strength as measured by the point differential – a historically strong predictor of future success – with adjustments for individual wrinkles such as injuries and schedules, the Odds Machine includes four main features: odds d ‘post-season (including each team’s probability of making the playoffs and winning the title), lottery odds (for first and top five), odds of reaching the play-in tournament and the most likely final ranking for each conference. The odds machine will be updated daily until a champion is crowned, so be sure to check back in the next few months as the best teams in the league battle for a title.
The table below shows the average winning total for each team, as well as each team’s probability of making the playoffs and winning the 2020-2021 title. We simulate the rest of the season – and the playoffs – every day, so check back every day for the latest showings.
Playoff odds
| Team | Average wins | Qualifiers | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Average wins | Qualifiers | Title |
| Jazz | 53 | 100% | 31% |
| Suns | 50 | 100% | 12% |
| Lawn mowers | 47 | 100% | 12% |
| Roe deer | 46 | 100% | 12% |
| 76ers | 48 | 100% | 11% |
| Nets | 47 | 100% | 8% |
| Nuggets | 46 | 100% | 6% |
| Lakers | 43 | 98% | 3% |
| Falcons | 38 | 94% | 2% |
| Mavericks | 41 | 91% | 1% |
| Celtics | 37 | 90% | 1% |
| Knicks | 35 | 69% | 1% |
| Trail Blazers | 40 | 85% | <1% |
| Hornets | 36 | 78% | <1% |
| Heat | 36 | 78% | <1% |
| Grizzlies | 38 | 75% | <1% |
| Pacers | 34 | 53% | <1% |
| Bulls | 32 | 26% | <1% |
| Warriors | 35 | 24% | <1% |
| Spurs | 33 | 16% | <1% |
| Raptors | 31 | 12% | <1% |
| Pelicans | 32 | 7% | <1% |
| kings | 31 | 4% | <1% |
| Assistants | 27 | 1% | <1% |
| thunder | 27 | <1% | <1% |
| Riders | 26 | <1% | <1% |
| Pistons | 24 | <1% | <1% |
| Magic | 24 | <1% | <1% |
| Rockets | 21 | <1% | <1% |
| Timberwolves | 20 | <1% | <1% |
Getty Images / Ringtone Illustration
The 2021 NBA Draft is loaded at the top, with Cade Cunningham and a handful of others projecting themselves as cornerstones of the franchise. Taking into account the simulated final standings, lottery odds and selection operations, what are the odds of your favorite team of winning a no. 1, or a selection from the top five? (Only teams with at least a 1% chance of getting a top-five pick are included here.)
Lottery odds
| Team | No. 1 | Top 5 |
|---|---|---|
| Team | No. 1 | Top 5 |
| Rockets | 14% | 52% |
| Timberwolves | 14% | 40% |
| Pistons | 12% | 58% |
| Magic | 12% | 58% |
| Riders | ten% | 45% |
| Assistants | 9% | 39% |
| thunder | 8% | 67% |
| Raptors | 4% | 20% |
| kings | 4% | 17% |
| Pelicans | 3% | 14% |
| Bulls | 3% | 13% |
| Spurs | 2% | 8% |
| Warriors | 1% | 54% |
| Pacers | 1% | 5% |
| Knicks | 1% | 3% |
| Hornets | <1% | 2% |
| Heat | <1% | 2% |
| Grizzlies | <1% | 1% |
| Celtics | <1% | 1% |
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Getty Images / Ringtone Illustration
Prior to the start of these playoffs, each conference will host three play-in matches. The top six teams from each conference will automatically move to the playoff bracket, but our. 7, 8, 9 and 10 will all participate in the play-in round. Which teams are most likely to compete in this new showcase? (Only teams with at least 1% chance are included here.)
Eastern Conference play-in odds
| Team | Chances |
|---|---|
| Team | Chances |
| Pacers | 75% |
| Knicks | 65% |
| Bulls | 64% |
| Heat | 54% |
| Hornets | 49% |
| Raptors | 38% |
| Celtics | 30% |
| Falcons | 20% |
| Assistants | 4% |
| Riders | 2% |
Western Conference Game Odds
| Team | Chances |
|---|---|
| Team | Chances |
| Warriors | 83% |
| Grizzlies | 82% |
| Spurs | 66% |
| Trail Blazers | 57% |
| Mavericks | 46% |
| Pelicans | 32% |
| kings | 19% |
| Lakers | 12% |
| Nuggets | 1% |
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Getty Images / Ringtone Illustration
Interested in the juiciest potential clashes of the first round or your favorite team’s path to the final? These charts show the most likely final rankings in each conference, based on today’s simulations. Start planning your brackets!
Most likely Eastern Conference seedlings
| Seed | Team |
|---|---|
| Seed | Team |
| 1 | 76ers |
| 2 | Nets |
| 3 | Roe deer |
| 4 | Falcons |
| 5 | Celtics |
| 6 | Hornets |
| 7 | Heat |
| 8 | Knicks |
| 9 | Pacers |
| ten | Bulls |
Most likely Western Conference seedlings
| Seed | Team |
|---|---|
| Seed | Team |
| 1 | Jazz |
| 2 | Suns |
| 3 | Lawn mowers |
| 4 | Nuggets |
| 5 | Lakers |
| 6 | Mavericks |
| 7 | Trail Blazers |
| 8 | Grizzlies |
| 9 | Warriors |
| ten | Spurs |
