It’s not often a team launches quadruple All Pro safety just completed another All Pro season like the Denver Broncos did with Justin Simmons.
It’s also not often that a team decides to move on from a 24-year-old safety who just finished a season with 11 passes defensed. go out the door like the New York Giants did with Xavier McKinney.
And the Seahawks released Quandre Diggs and the Bills released Jordan Poyer and the Jaguars released Rayshawn Jenkins and so on.
While these are individual team decisions, the league as a whole has been vocal about what it thinks of safeties: They’re generally not worth it.
Just as the running back market has collapsed in recent years, the safety position has done something similar. There are some safeties worth paying for, like a Derwin James or an Antoine Winfield Jr. or a Kyle Hamilton in a few years.
But more than $103 million across the league has been saved in cash salary for 2024 at the safety position, according to Over The Cap. That’s by far the highest of any position group, surpassing the lost cornerback’s salary by $40 million.
“There are so many opportunities to match physical talent with high-level intellect and intangibles, so you don’t need to overspend to get the production,” an NFL personnel executive told CBS Sports. “You can draft these guys on day three or dedicate low free agency resources to them and resume production if they’re smart.”
Another personnel official said, “It’s essentially a similar but not equivalent argument for running backs. Many teams play with third to fifth round picks at this position and do very well. There are other areas of your team to spend on. It has a much bigger impact on the game.”
Not surprisingly, coaches see things differently.
“There’s a disconnect between how the coaches view the position and how the staff views the position,” one defensive backs coach told CBS Sports. “It’s a very program-dependent role, so some guys may be a great fit for certain coaches while others aren’t as well suited, through no fault of their own or even their measurables. That said, try to Evaluating production from one program to another can then become just as difficult.
If a safety can cover a tight end, then tackle in the run game, then force fumbles, then sack the quarterback while allowing no touchdowns in coverage, that player will get paid. It turns out there are very few of these humans on the planet, and any security deficiencies will likely be exposed by a creative offensive coordinator.
This is the current trend in the NFL. Quarterbacks don’t throw the ball deep like they used to. Over the past four years, the league has seen fewer than eight passes per game of 20-plus yards down the field after a decade of above eight per game.
Last year, there were 15.4 passes per game behind the line of scrimmage, the most since the NFL began tracking it in 2006. And over the past two decades, the last five years have produced the Lowest interception rates in the league.
There has been an increase in security checks on two levels over the past half-decade. According to league data, 38 percent of coverages last season featured two high safety looks. This figure has increased from the 30% rate recorded in 2019 in each successive year.
These looks tend to result in shorter passes. Against two pitches last year, quarterbacks threw 68 percent of their passes less than 10 yards downfield, while that figure was 63 percent against a zero safety or one pitch.
Thus, on the ground, there is statistically less need for security compared to previous years.
It will be fascinating to see how the safety market plays out next week as free agency begins. Will teams pounce on one of the top players like McKinney and Simmons? Or will teams sit back and wait for someone else to determine the market?
We should have answers when the legal tampering window begins on Monday.
