sara.ziegler (Sara Ziegler, Sports Writer): There is just over a month left in the NBA season, and there is movement in the FiveThirtyEight screenings. Let’s start today’s chat by looking at the top of the heap – which teams seem strong and which teams should be worried.
The Los Angeles Clippers are on a tear and are the first in our Elo rankings. Are they the team to beat now?
neil (Neil Paine, senior sports writer): They could be the hottest team in the league right now, winning five straight.
chris.herring (Chris Herring, Senior Sports Writer): I think it could be more bloodshed from the West than from the East, so I always like Milwaukee’s chances better than anyone else .
The Clippers’ game with the Lakers on Sunday will be fun to watch, no doubt.
neil: I continue to marvel to see our model never having Milwaukee # 1 for very long, despite the season he has.
What must happen for RAPTOR to fear deer ???
chris.herring: For RAPTOR to have less confidence in the Sixers, probably.
neil: That’s a good point. These two things seem to be evolving at the same rate.
chris.herring: I feel like our model and I have a major fight every year. It would be my fight this year. He won the fight last year when he was in the hands of the Warriors and wholeheartedly believed in the Raptors.
chow (Tony Chow, video producer): How do you like your chances this year, Chris?
chris.herring: I think the Bucks are historically dominant and the best team in the league. But even if I haven’t done it, I think a lot more that they come from the East than those who come from the West. I think we’ll end up having to judge Malcolm Brogdon’s deal once we see how the Bucks fare in the playoffs without him. Because if we get away from what they looked like this year, they were a total demolition team against just about everyone.
sara.ziegler: Nothing seems to really slow them down, that’s for sure – and I never tire of watching Giannis Antetokounmpo.
chris.herring: I can’t wait to see what they look like in the playoffs.
A Bucks-Clippers final would be crazy. It would be the same for a final of the Bucks-Lakers.
neil: Meanwhile, Philly’s injuries and his recent cold streak have dropped somewhat, but 11% to win it all is still a bit high for a team that cannot really understand things even when they are at full power.
I am struck by the home-road sharing of the Sixers: 28-2 at home and 9-23 on the road! For a team that may not even have a home field in the first round, this could be a poor distribution.
tchow: I’m still curious and slightly confused as to why RAPTOR loves the Sixers so much. Is it a question of individual talent?
chris.herring: Exactly. I haven’t seen much else this year that would explain why the model trusts them so much. They have a ton of talent, but they’re not always able to fully blend that talent. Poor home / road sharing. Queues can sometimes be a mess. Horford did not work as they hoped.
tchow: One good thing for the Sixers is that they seem to have the simplest schedule in the league.
sara.ziegler: Their players are all very good – the top seven in the rotation all have above average RAPTOR metrics:
How well does RAPTOR know how these players associate?
chris.herring: Probably more than me, if they end up making noise in the playoffs.
sara.ziegler: LOL
chris.herring: A month or two ago, I still didn’t care about the Sixers. But what Neil said, even if you’re not completely worried about them now, you should at least be a little worried about how terrible they’ve been on the road because they certainly won’t have any advantage home.
neil: And just to go back and close the loop on this home-road sharing (while I am furiously typing code into my computer), this sharing is the most important in history:
Sixers have the largest home / road split in history
Biggest difference in percentage of wins between home and road games in one season for NBA, ABA and BAA teams, 1946-2020
Winning percentage | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Season | Team | Home | Road | Diff. |
2019-20 * | PHI | .933 | .281 | +0.652 |
1951-52 | INO | .769 | .138 | +0.631 |
1988-89 | LAIR | .833 | .209 | +0.624 |
1950-51 | FTW | .757 | .147 | +0.610 |
2002-03 | CHI | .659 | .073 | +0.585 |
1969-70 | DNR | .860 | .283 | +0.577 |
1983-84 | ATL | .767 | .205 | +0.563 |
1990-91 | BAG | .585 | .024 | +0.561 |
1976-77 | LAIR | .864 | .318 | +0.545 |
1951-52 | PHW | .781 | .243 | +0.538 |
1950-51 | SORTING | .629 | .091 | +0.538 |
1978-79 | POR | .810 | .279 | +0.530 |
1950-51 | PHW | .853 | .324 | +0.529 |
1988-89 | BOS | .762 | .233 | +0.529 |
1968-69 | DNR | .814 | .286 | +0.528 |
tchow: Who the hell is INO?
neil: LOL, that is to say the Olympians of Indianapolis, who last played in 1953. Which tells you how far this record goes!
chris.herring: The Sixers will regain their health at some point, but having to start this gelling process late seems far from ideal. And we don’t even know how serious the problem with Simmons’ back is yet.
tchow: Insert mandatory “Trust the Process” here.
sara.ziegler: And the other contenders in the East? The Celtics ‘odds have increased slightly in our forecast, while the Raptors’ odds have declined. What do we do with these teams?
chris.herring: Jayson Tatum’s game alone for the Celtics makes me want to become a believer.
neil: The Raptors hit a minor bump in the road, losing three of their last four games and not looking particularly competitive against a Milwaukee team that the playoff road will most likely cross. We talked about their funny story, but that raises old concerns about whether they can go far in the playoffs.
tchow: I think the Raptors vs. Bucks game last week was a good overview of where these two teams are now in the East.
neil: Exactly.
tchow: In fact, I received an email from a reader asking why the Raptors were preferred for this game. I said something about the injury to Brook Lopez and the Bucks who came into play on the road. second night in a row and yadda yadda yadda. None of this seemed to matter.
neil: What can we say, the model is pro-dinosaur to a defect.
tchow:
neil: LOL, Tony.
chris.herring: I go back and forth between I like the Celtics or the Raptors in a series against the Bucks. Or if either team has a 10-15% chance of defeating Milwaukee.
neil: Subjectively, it looks like the Celtics will be better suited to the playoffs. They have more star power at Tatum and Kemba Walker and are better in all areas – top 5 in offense and defense this year.
But about you, Chris, I don’t really think it would matter much against Milwaukee.
chris.herring: Sidenote (and I didn’t see it live, because I was more locked up on Super Tuesday than I should have been): How on earth did the Celtics leave FIFTY AND ONE AMERICAN POINTS to the Nets at fourth quarter Tuesday ?!
neil: American points, LOL.
Chris, your colleague Wolverine Caris LeVert also scored 51 points. (In the game, not just in the fourth quarter.)
chris.herring: Certainly, I have already seen it! (I covered a few awful Knicks teams from my day, and they lost 51 in a quarter to a Lakers team that didn’t have Kobe, Pau, Nash or Dwight playing that night.) But still. It was something. Neither here nor there. But wow.
neil: I love the way the Nets are rocketing now that Kyrie Irving is out for the year.
Continuing the narrative that he is a team killer.
(Which I don’t really believe, fwiw.)
sara.ziegler: LOL – just drop that, Neil.
neil: Hey, someone had to do it!
I can’t wait to see him and KD next year.
sara.ziegler: ?
chris.herring: Back to the contenders, I’m encouraged by Tatum’s dominance lately. And I saw an interesting number the other day about how Pascal Siakam of the Raptors has struggled a bit against elite defensemen compared to just average or below average this season.
neil: It’s really interesting. That seems to be another way of talking about concerns that they don’t have the extra equipment to make it through the playoffs without Kawhi.
chris.herring: May be. But after last year, I make no proclamation to count them!
I never know when someone could race Fred VanVleet in front of us.
sara.ziegler: So if we feel confident enough in the Bucks from the East … who do we love in the West?
chris.herring: I have no idea of the West. But one thing our model has been optimistic about, and which is starting to look less crazy, is the Rockets – even after the loss against the Knicks.
tchow: Russell Westbrook had a pretty good month of February.
chris.herring: Their new style of play, and what it unlocked for Russell Westbrook, seems to be much more than just cute functionality. That’s who they are, and they’ve sometimes found a way to play with a pretty incredible defense.
The idea that Robert Covington has been among the leaders of the block league since joining the Rockets is absurd but true.
sara.ziegler: We had a story on Wednesday about the little ball brand that the Rockets play. They may be shorter than everyone else in the league, but they are not actually smaller – they are seldom overtaken on the field.
I found it really interesting!
tchow: According to ESPN Statistics and Information Group, Westbrook and James Harden both averaged 30 points and five assists in February, making them the first pair of teammates to do so in a calendar month. I haven’t had time to do the math, but I wonder if that wouldn’t be true yet if they hadn’t both played decent games on February 29 against the Celtics.
neil: God bless leap days!
tchow: I think Chris talked about it in our last chat, but the little ball Rockets against, say, the Lakers in a playoff would be really something.
sara.ziegler: Of course, Tony. We always give the Lakers a slightly better chance of winning the final than the Rockets – 18 to 16%. Which team do you prefer?
chris.herring: I think it’s still a bit difficult to imagine the Rockets beating a team like the Lakers during the playoffs.
But while I would have considered this a near impossibility before, I am at least interested to see if the Rockets can continue thus during the remainder of the regular season and until the playoffs. There is apparently something lasting there. Finding a way to get the most efficient version of Westbrook – to get him to stop playing three times and push him into the basket – was always going to be the biggest question for Houston. They seem to have done it, and it made a big difference.
neil: I can’t wait to see Houston try to slow down a team that has more than 50 dunks more than any other team, according to Second Spectrum.
tchow: Have the Lakers already removed “Lob City” from the Clippers?
neil: I mean, the Clippers are also fourth this year – So many dips in L.A. this season!
L.A. is Dunk City this year
Total dunks for 2019-2020 NBA teams *
Team | Dunks | Team | Dunks | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | the Los Angeles Lakers | 480 | 16 | Toronto Raptors | 282 | |
2 | Atlanta Hawks | 426 | 17 | Denver Nuggets | 282 | |
3 | Chicago bulls | 359 | 18 | Detroit Pistons | 280 | |
4 | Los Angeles Clippers | 344 | 19 | Dallas Mavericks | 267 | |
5 | warmth of miami | 344 | 20 | The Cleveland Cavaliers | 266 | |
6 | brooklyn fillets | 336 | 21 | Houston Rockets | 262 | |
seven | New york knicks | 333 | 22 | Phoenix suns | 259 | |
8 | Golden state warriors | 328 | 23 | Orlando Magic | 258 | |
9 | New Orleans pelicans | 306 | 24 | Sacramento Kings | 252 | |
ten | Utah Jazz | 305 | 25 | Boston Celtics | 243 | |
11 | Milwaukee Bucks | 294 | 26 | Washington assistants | 238 | |
12 | Charlotte hornets | 291 | 27 | Portland Trail Blazers | 237 | |
13 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 290 | 28 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 211 | |
14 | Memphis Grizzlies | 287 | 29 | Indiana Pacers | 177 | |
15 | Philadelphia 76ers | 284 | 30 | San antonio spurs | 162 |
sara.ziegler: I really like the fact that the Rockets recognized the kind of team they were and just decided to bow out.
(Considering the amount of Harden that is already leaning.)
neil: Haha
sara.ziegler: I’ll be here all week, friends.
And the teams that should worry in the West? Jazz and nuggets have recently dropped in our ratings. Does either team always have a shot?
neil: These are ALWAYS the western teams that we seem to doubt.
tchow: Does either team have a chance to do what?
sara.ziegler: WIN EVERYTHING
tchow: LOL. Uh …
chris.herring: They both seem really off.
Utah has the same problem with Mike Conley that the Sixers have had with Al Horford to some extent – probably an even more difficult time, honestly, due to Conley’s previous injuries. So they get busy with queues.
My real concern with Utah and Denver has been on the defensive lately. The two have been in the bottom six in the league in terms of defensive effectiveness in the past 10 games. This is of particular concern for Jazz, as it was usually their calling card. (Of course, they were less brilliant this year.)
tchow: Rudy Gobert can’t do much on his own.
chris.herring: Gobert has been lackluster lately too. The effort just doesn’t seem to be there.
neil: It’s funny that we give one of the most superstar teams the benefit of the doubt when they’re going through a rough patch in the regular season. But we are less generous with a team like Utah or Denver, I think. (And maybe that’s correct!)
sara.ziegler: So, of the four teams competing, we talked about the collapse – Utah, Denver, Philly and Toronto – which one should panic the most?
chris.herring: I would say Philadelphia. Then Utah.
tchow: I think it must be one of the western teams, probably Utah?
neil: I’m with Chris to worry about Philly.
chris.herring: Philly and Utah both have things to discover. Philly arrived with very high expectations and now also has health concerns to fear.
neil: Between Ben Simmons’ injury, Joel Embiid’s constant frailty and the aforementioned questions about form and ability to win on the road, I panic if I’m a Sixers fan right now.
chris.herring: I think there’s a lot more chance that something major will change in Philadelphia during the off-season if they withdraw from the first round (maybe even the second round, to be honest). Although Utah must be feeling a little sick to the stomach in light of the Conley deal, which I thought was solid at the time.
sara.ziegler: So the best chance for the final game, right now in our model anyway, is Clippers-Bucks, which would be so much fun.
But am I wrong to want it to be Bucks-Rockets? I just want to watch Giannis and Harden in a qualification.
neil: When Harden doesn’t walk, he talks.
sara.ziegler: ???
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