After the Boston Celtics were dismantled by the Miami Heat in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals, it seemed a foregone conclusion that the Heat would advance to the NBA Finals.
The question was not whether the Heat would advance. Rather, the questions surrounding the series were: Would the Celtics fire first-year head coach Joe Mazzulla? And would Boston finally sever its core of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart after six consecutive non-title playoffs?
Not so fast – Boston isn’t done yet.
After the Heat were dismantled by the Celtics in Game 5, Boston is suddenly looking to even the series with a win at Miami in Game 6. Considering the Celtics have already largely dominated the Heat at Kaseya Center in Game 4, 116- 99, it’s not so far-fetched to think Boston could return to the TD Garden for Game 7 on Monday night.
“One of our assistants put it into perspective,” Mazzulla said. “The seasons last about nine months and we’ve just had a bad week. Sometimes you have a bad week at work. We obviously didn’t pick the best time to have a bad week, but we did, and we’re sticking together and fighting like crazy to keep her alive, and the guys are really coming together.
Brown offered a stern warning after the Celtics’ 110-97 spanking of the Heat in Game 5 – don’t let them win another one.
“They let us have two, so don’t buy us another one,” Brown said via DTT.
For the second game in a row, the Celtics came out with more energy. And when Boston comes up as the aggressor, it seems the Heat have no answer for the Celtics’ young talent.
Four Celtics players scored at least 21 points, paced by role player Derrick White’s 24 points. Meanwhile, Boston’s “Big Three” Tatum, Brown and Smart combined to shoot 24 of 46 (52.1%) while scoring 65 points.
The most important statistic? The Heat’s 16 turnovers, which directly led to 27 points for the Celtics on turnovers. It was the second straight game that Boston had scored 27 points on turnovers, with Miami also committing 16 turnovers in their Game 4 loss.
The Heat averaged just 10.5 turnovers in their losses in Games 2 and 3.
“Our offense was a bit disjointed,” Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra said after the game. “We weren’t able to initiate our attack, to get the ball where it needed to go in the places where you can operate.”
The offense’s inability to function properly was a major reason Miami’s performance was so poor from the first tip. The Celtics beat the Heat 15-5 to start the game before finishing the first quarter with a 35-20 lead. Miami never recovered – and never trailed – while they were submissive.
The absence of Gabe Vincent – one of the Heat’s many undrafted heroes – was felt throughout the game as Kyle Lowry was slotted into the starting lineup. Unsurprisingly, the 37-year-old looked old and slow, producing more turnovers than assists – four to one – and just five points.
By comparison, Vincent was averaging 17.5 points per game from 57.9 percent from the field and 50.0 percent from beyond the arc in games 1-4 before his sprained ankle.
More importantly, the 2023 NBA playoff MVP – Jimmy Butler – was mostly a non-factor. Butler was out of sync, producing his game-low 14 points on the night when the Heat needed him more than ever.
While Butler scored 29 points in Game 4, he did so on 9 of 21 shots from the field and 1 of 4 from outside the arc. In other words, it was the third game in a row where Butler was simply ineffective in terms of scoring and efficiency.
Despite his uneven performance — and that of the Heat — for the second straight game, Butler will remain unfazed in Game 6.
“We’re always going to stay positive knowing we can and will win this series,” Butler said. “We’ll just have to close it at home.”
No team in NBA playoff history has come back from a 3-0 series deficit. It happened 150 times and no A team won after three games behind.
While the story points to the Heat eventually shutting it down, the ongoing story idea is a very realistic – the Celtics can pull this one off and advance to the NBA Finals for the second season in a row.
Miami was arguably the hottest team in the playoffs. But remember, this is a team that lost to the Atlanta Hawks in the playoff and nearly missed the playoffs altogether when they trailed the Chicago Bulls 40-42 by six points. midway through the fourth quarter. It took a Herculean effort — Butler scored 13 points in the final seven minutes — for the Heat to win.
The Heat are also lacking key players in Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo and relied on Butler to carry the scoring load with the key scoring and three-point shot from the undrafted quartet – Vincent, Caleb Martin, Max Strus and Duncan Robinson – to advance this far.
If Butler is unable to produce a typical score by his standards — he’s averaging 28.8 points per game on 50.5% shooting in the playoffs — and the Heat’s role players are unable to care for the ball and getting hot from deep, the Celtics will likely win Game 6.
What if they do?
The Heat will be in real trouble getting into a potential Game 7 at TD Garden.
History could stare Miami in the face and this time the odds won’t favor them.
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