On august 15e Ranil Wickremesinghe, President of Sri Lanka, visited Katunayake Air Base near Colombo, the capital, to take delivery of a Dornier 228 maritime surveillance plane, a gift from India. The day after, Yuan Wang 5, a Chinese surveillance vessel, docked in the southern port of Hambantota over objections from India and America. Meanwhile, nps Taimura Chinese-made Pakistani frigate, called at the port of Colombo on August 12.
For Sri Lanka, the few days have been difficult. Responding to allegations in the Indian press, its navy denied having waged “war games” with the Pakistani boat. But the Chinese vessel captured the imagination of Sri Lankans and Indians. Originally scheduled to dock on August 11, its arrival was “delayed” at the request of Sri Lanka under pressure from India, which fears the ship could not keep up with its missile launches.
This would all be quite tricky under normal circumstances. But Sri Lanka, which defaulted on its debt in May, depends on the goodwill of its creditors and neighbors. China alone accounts for 10% of the country’s $32 billion in foreign borrowing and is generally reluctant to offer write-downs. India has been a staunch ally over the past few months, providing some $4 billion in loans and aid to keep Sri Lanka afloat. Maintaining good relations with both countries is essential if Sri Lanka’s debt is to be made sustainable. Hence the somewhat awkward compromises concerning all visiting ships.
“We have so far kept the power rivalry of the Indian Ocean out of the way,” Wickremesinghe said in an interview with The Economist the day before he went to accept India’s gift. But it’s getting harder to maintain a balance, he says, in light of the war in Ukraine and China’s boundless alliance with Russia. “I think we have to deal with this situation and work with everyone…Sri Lanka, of course, has a special relationship with India where we have to look out for everyone’s interests. But most Indian Ocean countries want to stay out of power competition. So we have to be clear about that and say what our policies are.
It’s easier in theory than in practice, because the Yuan Wang 5 saga shows. China was reportedly furious at the request to postpone his arrival. He insists it is merely a “scientific research vessel” rather than the infamous spy ship India claims to be. These are “completely normal exchanges between two countries that have a long friendship,” the Chinese ambassador told reporters.
Such feuds between the Asian giants are expected to become more common in the coming years. Ties have been strained since a clash on the Himalayan border between their forces in 2020, which killed 20 Indian soldiers and five Chinese. Tens of thousands of soldiers are massed on both sides of their border. The relationship “is not normal [and] this cannot be normal because the border situation is not normal,” Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, India’s foreign minister, said recently. This month, Indian officials declined to say what the Chinese wanted to hear about Taiwan, saying only that “relevant policies are well known and consistent.”
The tension has implications not only for South Asia, but also for the Indian Ocean. Many island nations “recognize China’s new interest in their regions as an opportunity,” writes Darshana Baruah of the Carnegie Endowment, a think tank in Washington. They also see, she adds, that Chinese attention has brought renewed attention from countries such as India and America. The Indian Ocean could become the scene of “strategic competition between rival great powers”, Ahmed Khaleel, the Maldives’ foreign minister, said last year at a forum organized by the think tank. “But our hope is that the Indian Ocean will not witness a security dilemma in which the activities of major outside powers to bolster their own security interests will create insecurity for others in the region,” did he declare.
Mr Wickremesinghe also fears that the Indian Ocean could become the next place for great power fighting. “Nancy Pelosi single-handedly created a crisis,” he says, referring to a visit to Taiwan this month by the speaker of the US House of Representatives that angered China. “We don’t want that to happen here. We consider India as the internet security provider in the region. And then all other countries can also be present as long as it does not lead to a rise in tensions or an increase in state rivalry. This position is understandable. However, the about-face Yuan Wang 5which irritated both China and India, is a sign of the difficulty in maintaining it.
Read more from Banyan, our columnist on Asia:
How not to administer justice after a brutal civil war (August 13)
Is Bongbong Marcos’ early pragmatism a paradox or an illusion? (August 4)
India’s ruling Hindu nationalist party preaches social inclusion (July 28)