Happy Monday everyone, and more importantly, happy birthday to me because I received the best birthday present I could have hoped for. According to several reports, White Sox manager Tony La Russa will announce his retirement on Monday.
La Russa has not coached the White Sox since late August due to ongoing health issues on the advice of his doctors and underwent a procedure to repair his pacemaker. It was his second stint with the White Sox, and as I’ve documented in this newsletter many times over the past two seasons, it was disappointing. After being easily knocked out of the playoffs last October, the White Sox entered 2022 as heavy favorites to win the AL Central and might not even end the season with a winning record.
Maybe walking away will be best for everyone involved. Elsewhere today:
Now let’s get that birthday cake.
All Eastern times and odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The hot ticket
Rams at 49ers, 8:15 p.m. | Television: ESPN
Latest odds:
Los Angeles Rams +2
- Key trend: The road team has covered five of the last seven meetings.
- The choice: Rams +2 (-110)
It’s been a one-sided divisional rivalry in recent years, with San Francisco winning six of the last seven meetings dating back to 2018. However, there had been six straight 49ers wins until the playoffs last year when the Rams beat the 49ers 20-17 in the NFC Championship.
The Rams were better that day and more relevant to our interests tonight, the Rams are a better team than San Francisco right now. Statistically, the 49ers have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They rank #1 in pass rate and points awarded per reader. Opposing possessions are averaging just 21.3 yards per drive, which is also the best number in the league. But have you looked at who San Francisco played to start the season?
Jonathan Coachman is joined by Larry Hartstein, Zack Cimini and Allie O’Neill to reveal Monday’s best bets. Download and follow The Early Edge on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
In Week 1, they faced Chicago (32nd in offensive completion rate) in a monsoon. The following week, he was at home against a Seattle team that ripped the Lions for 48 points on Sunday but was mediocre at best on offense in its first three games. Last week, the Niners faced a Denver offense that ranks 31st in the league in pass rate. To use a phrase I hear often in college football: they haven’t played anyone.
The Niners have also been questionable on the offensive end, even before Trey Lance was injured. In fact, their offense is so bad it’s surprising San Francisco’s defense hasn’t faced it yet. The Niners rank 27th in pass rate, 31st in points per player and 24th in turnover rate. While the Rams defense is off to a much slower start than expected, the offense continues to go well, and that’s the unit I have the most confidence in tonight.
I’ll take both points because it’s the NFL, and it’s hard to predict, but I also think the Rams win more often than they lose tonight.
Here’s what SportsLine has to say about the game: While SportsLine’s Larry Hartstein and I disagree on the spread, Matt Severance thinks we should play on the total instead.
💰Choices
🏈 Monday Night Football
Rams at 49ers, 8:15 p.m. | Television: ESPN
The pick: Darrell Henderson Over 22.5 rushing yards (-113) – Henderson leads the Rams in rushing through three games, so it’s surprising to see his yardage prop so low tonight. There’s a reason for that, though. While Henderson was the team’s primary fullback through the first two weeks of the season and rushed for 47 yards in both games, he had just four carries for 17 yards last week as Cam Akers played a bigger role, especially on early downs.
Still, I think Henderson’s lack of reach last week had more to do with the game’s storyline (Akers got hot!) than LA’s overall plan, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get more of that tonight. . Sean McVay has always been hard to predict when it comes to his use of the RB, so I think this prop is an overreaction. Plus, Henderson might not need a lot of carries to get 23 yards anyway.
Key trend: Henderson has averaged 47.4 rushing yards per game over the past three seasons.
⚾MLB
Giants at Padres, 9:40 p.m. | Television: MLB Network
Latest odds:
San Francisco Giants +180
The Pick: Giants (+196) — The Padres lost two of three to the White Sox over the weekend, including Sunday, but that didn’t matter. With the Brewers losing to the Marlins, the Padres clinched a wild card spot and celebrated after the game. Tonight, we’re betting on a hangover both literally and figuratively.
It’s a pitch shift with San Diego sending Joe Musgrove to the mound and San Francisco handing the ball to John Brebbia. Still, the Padres have been playing mediocre baseball lately, and it’s only natural that there’s a bit of disappointment after winning yesterday. To be clear, this one is a lot more instinctual than mathematical, but the numbers suggest there’s value on the Giants at this price regardless.
Key trend: The Padres are 1-4 in their last five home games.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: SportsLine’s Mike McClure shared his favorite player paraphernalia tonight if you want to bet them separately or set up a bet.