The following is taken from a recent edition of Deep Dive, Bitcoin Magazine’s high-end market newsletter. To be among the first to receive this and other on-chain bitcoin market analysis straight to your inbox, Subscribe now.
We have been covering the bullish bitcoin supply momentum very closely over the past few months as we believe it is the fundamental driver of price action in this market. The process of bitcoin monetization takes place as users acquire bitcoin at a price they believe to be undervalued and HODL until this is no longer considered to be true. This act reduces the free float or supply available in the market, and as more participants also wish to own the asset, fewer satoshis are able to circulate. Simple supply and demand tells us that only one thing can happen – the price of bitcoin is going up.
Today we will review some recent HODL wave data for a closer look at HODLer activity.
The percentage of bitcoin supply that has moved in the past three months is tied to an all-time low, the other case occurring at the bear market low of 2015. That is, 85% of bitcoin supply in circulation has not changed address in the past three months, a historic record (tied with the instance in 2015).
You will find the same data below but seen in an opposite way:
Likewise, supply last displaced more than five years ago reached a record high, reaching 22.76% of the supply in circulation. While some of this can undoubtedly be attributed to lost coins (see: the last growing purple supply band was moved over 10 years ago), nonetheless, it does contribute to the supply dynamics currently taking place on the market. The supply of coins that have not budged for over 10 years is around 2.25 million BTC, and a large portion of these coins can be considered lost, including the estimated reserve of 1 million BTC. of Satoshi (who has never moved).
The bitcoin thesis is simple:
We are witnessing the rise of an emerging global monetary asset, unlike any of us have ever seen. The bitcoin monetization process is a once-only opportunity, and from a game theory perspective your only choice is to play (acquire and HODL bitcoin).