Week 13 of the 2022 NFL season lived up to the hype. The Minnesota Vikings and New York Jets gave us a thriller, Deshaun Watson won his first game in the league despite the Cleveland Browns failing to score an offensive touchdown, Washington Commanders and New York Giants are tied and the San Francisco 49ers beat a talented Miami Dolphins team despite losing quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.
We also saw the Kansas City Chiefs see their 26-game winning streak through November and December snapped thanks to Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. Cincy has now beaten Kansas City in seven of the last eight meetings!
How has the past week affected Vegas’ view of who the future champion will be? Super Bowl odds are fluid, so let’s look at current odds compared to just a week ago. Below, we’ll list the Super Bowl odds for the top 20 teams in the NFL, then detail some of the notable changes.
All NFL odds are from Caesars Sportsbook.
Favorites change again
The Chiefs embraced the Bills to reclaim the title of Super Bowl favorites last week, but their reign didn’t last. Following their 27-24 loss to the Bengals, the Chiefs went from +400 to +450. It’s not a massive drop, but the Bills went from +450 to +380. Their 24-10 victory over the Patriots was quite telling. Bill Belichick waved the white flag in the second half at home against a rival, while Josh Allen went 22 of 33 for 223 yards and two touchdowns. After a lackluster outing against the Lions at Thanksgiving, he seems to have bounced back. The elbow injury is always on everyone’s mind, but it seems to be something Allen is handling well.
Was this changing of the guard in Vegas justified? Time will tell, but the Bills are probably the most complete team in the NFL.
The 49ers fall, but not much
What a weird week for the 49ers. On Sunday morning, it was reported that the 49ers and Garoppolo were set to stay together in 2023, then hours later the quarterback suffered a season-ending foot injury in the win over the Dolphins. . But wait, apparently the injury is not the end of the season, and Jimmy G could return sometime in the playoffs. I will say publicly that I’m not sure how likely that is, but it’s pretty amazing that the 49ers went from +650 to just +900 after losing their starting quarterback.
Brock Purdy, this year’s Mr. Irrelevant of the 2022 NFL Draft, replaced Garoppolo and completed 25 of 37 passes for 210 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in the eventual 33-17 victory. He looked better than everyone probably expected, and the NFL world knows not to count Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers are still a top five Super Bowl favorite with Purdy.
Bengals continue to progress
The Bengals have been on the rise for weeks now, and the Super Bowl odds reflect that as well. They were +2500 to win it all a few weeks ago, and are now +1200. The Ravens are still the favorites to win the AFC North, according to the Caesars, but I disagree with that. The Bengals roll. They’re 8-2 in their last 10 games after starting the season 0-2, and Ja’Marr Chase is back. I also like the efficiency of Samaje Perine in place of Joe Mixon. I’m interested to see if Zac Taylor gives him more touches in the future. As we learned last year, this Bengals team has what it takes to run.
