There is plenty of Super Bowl LVIII storylines between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. From Brock Purdy being the last draft pick for the Super Bowl in two years to Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes vying for their third Super Bowl title in five years, the Super Bowl will be very exciting.
However, the 49ers’ pass catchers and the Chiefs’ pass defense are the untold story of Super Bowl LVIII, and it’s the matchup that could decide the game for both teams.
How Mahomes and Purdy play is everything; same with how Reid and Kyle Shanahan call the game. But the 49ers pass catchers against the Chiefs pass defense will be crucial in determining a world champion. Let’s take a look at the matchup:
49ers pass catchers
The combination of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle constitutes arguably the best passing receiver quartet in football. The 49ers’ top four pass catchers have totaled 3,818 receiving yards and 27 receiving touchdowns. Where all four make their mark is a few meters after the catch.
The 49ers lead the NFL with an average of 6.5 yards receiving per catch and 1.88 yards per completion. San Francisco is fourth in the NFL in yards per catch with 2,189 and leads the league in yards per catch with 13.6.
Which puts McCaffrey, Samuel, Aiyuk and Kittle at the center of the quartet. McCaffrey is arguably the best running back in football, finishing second in the NFL in receiving yards (564), first in receiving touchdowns (seven), third in air yards per target (1.84), and 10th for yards after the catch. (461). He threatens to catch the ball out of the backfield and create space with runs from Samuel, Aiyuk and Kittle.
Samuel is a yardage machine after the catch. He led all wide receivers in yards after reception per reception at 8.8 this year and led the league at his position in each of the last four years. Samuel leads all NFL receivers in yards after catch (2,663) and yards after catch per reception (9.9) since his rookie season in 2019.
Aiyuk has completed 81.3 percent of his catches for first downs or touchdowns this season, first in the NFL. He finished third in yards per route run (3.1) and second in yards per catch (17.9). He finished with 75 catches for 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns, adding a deep ball element to an already potent pass-catching group.
Kittle led all tight ends in receiving yards (1,020) and yards per catch (15.7) this season, while totaling 483 yards after the catch (third in the NFL among tight ends). This quartet of pass catchers will be the toughest challenge for the Chiefs pass defense all year.
The leaders pass the defense
The Chiefs are fourth in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (176.5) and passing touchdowns allowed (19), but the advanced numbers paint an even better picture. Opposing quarterbacks targeting the Chiefs have completed 61.2% of their passes for 3,001 yards for 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions for a passer rating of 83.6 (eighth in the NFL).
The Chiefs allowed just 6.0 yards per attempt, good for third in the league. Kansas City was eighth in opposing quarterback completion percentage, but only 27th in interceptions. If the Chiefs had more takeaways, the pass defense would get a lot more credit as a critical part of the league’s No. 2 overall unit.
Jarius Sneed led the NFL in yards allowed per target (4.7) this season, as opposing quarterbacks completed 48.3% of their passes with zero touchdowns and a passer rating of 45.2 targeting him. Sneed has allowed just one touchdown this season: when Josh Allen threw a touchdown pass to Khalil Shakir in the AFC Divisional Round.
Trent McDuffie is one of the best blitzing defensive backs in the league. His nine quarterback hits this season were the most by any cornerback in any season since the statistic was first recorded in 2006. His 16 pressures also led the league, while his three sacks were tied for first in the NFL. McDuffie has only allowed two touchdown passes this year, although he has no interceptions.
Why is McDuffie’s blitz critical? The Chiefs have the fourth-highest blitz rate (37%) and third-fewest yards per attempt (5.9) when blitzing this season and have the third-most defensive blitz plays (108) and fewest yards per attempt allowed (4.9) with a blitzing defensive back this season.
Blitzing could be feast or famine for the Chiefs if they take this approach. Purdy ranks fifth in the NFL in yards per attempt and passing touchdowns under pressure, but bottom five in interceptions thrown. His 8.0 yards per attempt against the blitz ranks second in the NFL with 11 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions.
The Chiefs have the pass defense to counter the 49ers if they can keep Purdy from ripping the ball out of his hands and make the tackle when the pass receivers recover the ball.
If Kansas City can hold off San Francisco’s pass rushers, the Chiefs will be the first repeat champions since the 2003-04 New England Patriots.
