The culmination of another NFL season comes this Sunday when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl, and if you’re reading this now, you probably didn’t appreciate the little break at the end of Fantasy Football season so far. You want action and we’re going to give you that in the form of player accessory choices. There are several ways to get in on the big game action, including more popular options like DFS, but my favorite is and always will be the accessory choices. In my experience, market inefficiencies are considerably higher with player prop lines than any other line — although that gap narrows a bit on a single-game roster like the Super Bowl.
One of the most important things I always preach when betting player props is to follow a narrative. If you think this game is going to go under the projected point total, don’t hang your saddle on a bevy of overs, no matter how much you enjoy watching players like AJ Brown make plays. Also, if you think a team is going to win this one in a blowout, be careful taking that team’s overs on passing and receiving props – anyone who placed overs on Brown’s yards or Jalen Hurts in the NFC Championship Game last week got a dose of that reality when Philadelphia pulled the air off the ball because they had a massive lead.
Here are my favorite Super Bowl player accessory picks.
All odds are published by Caesars Sportsbook as of Sunday afternoon.
Patrick Mahomes longest completion over 37.5 meters
49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk recently said something very interesting when discussing the Eagles-Chiefs game. To paraphrase, he said the 49ers found things with the Eagles defense that they thought they could exploit before Brock Purdy’s injury happened. As someone who runs a New York Giants podcast that analyzes the 22 coaches movie and has now watched that Eagles defense three times on tape, I think I know what Aiyuk was referring to. Eagles cornerbacks play a particularly aggressive brand of coverage and technique on the outside. You will often see Darius Slay and James Bradberry positioned several yards from the ball, but with their backs to the touchline and their feet positioned towards the middle of the field. More than a handful of times against the Giants, Bradberry specifically fell victim to double moves (Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton) but the ball never got to them. Mahomes is going to see the Eagles’ susceptibility to double moves on the outside, specifically against Bradberry, and he’s going to connect on at least one of those plays – and it’s likely to be over 38 yards. This is my favorite gamer accessory in the game.
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Travis Kelce on 79.5 receiving yards
All last week we heard about how much attention the Bengals were going to give Kelce and how they were essentially going to Belichick (i.e. take a player out of the game at all costs). The Bengals reportedly had posters of Kelce posted in and around the locker room to further emphasize always knowing where he was once on the field. Kelce also entered the AFC Championship game with a questionable tag and a back injury. Well, all of that was for naught. Kelce finished with seven receptions for 78 yards. And while his total exceeds that mark, Kelce should have more success against an Eagles defense that isn’t designed to take out a player. In fact, the Eagles defense led by Jonathon Gannon is based on the principles of Vic Fangio’s defense and it’s a style of defense against which Kelce can and has found success. He will find this success again on Sunday.
Miles Sanders for 59.5 rushing yards
This player prop started at 54.5 rushing yards on his first outing, then it went to 57.5 on Friday and now it’s just under 60. I’d take the prop up to 60 yards on the ground, so get in there now if you’re going to play it – although I doubt it goes much higher than that. I love this prop so much because it’s deflated through recency. Sure, we’ve seen a lot of Boston Scott and Ken Gainwell lately, but that has more to do with the Eagles knocking out their last two opponents than anything else. In a closer game, Sanders is likely to hit the 15-carry mark – or close – and we’re talking about a running back who’s averaged 4.9 yards per carry this season and is playing behind the best offensive line. of the NFL by far. Sanders has averaged 75 rushing yards this season, so he should be able to push past the 60-yard mark as long as the Eagles don’t fall behind by several early scores.
Jalen Hurts for 49.5 rushing yards
One of my best championship round prop plays was Hurts from under 44.5 rushing yards. This game was match specific. The 49ers defense was stingy against rushing quarterbacks, and I expected the Eagles to take a big lead. Why run Hurts if you win by multiple scores? Since I expect a competitive game against the Chiefs, I think the Eagles will speed things up with some engineered runs that we haven’t seen on tape since the start of the season. I also think the game works in Hurts favor because DC Chiefs Steve Spagnuolo likes to blitz and play men’s cover. The injured will see these men’s cover looks, take the B gap open, tuck it in and pick up the first down repeatedly.