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P.Oland arrives The coalition government will want to be seen by the rest of Europe as marking a new beginning. But on one point he is unlikely to deviate much from the policies of his populist predecessor, P.IS (the Law and Justice party). Immediately after Russia invaded its Ukrainian neighbor in February last year, the then government embarked on a mission that Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak described as providing Poland “the most powerful land forces in Europe” by acquiring massive firepower and more than doubling the size of its armed forces.
There is a strong Polish consensus on the need for such a plan. According to an opinion study carried out by NATO, 80% of Poles are in favor of maintaining or increasing defense spending. In March 2022, Parliament almost unanimously passed the Internal Defense Law, which increased the annual military budget to 3% of the annual military budget. GDP (way above NATO call for 2%) and establish an additional “off-budget” fund for military modernization worth about $9.5 billion this year and next.
Few hesitated when Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said in January that the course of the war in Ukraine meant “we have to arm ourselves even faster” and pushed the target to 4 percent of the budget. GDP it is suggested that it may even need to reach 5% over the next decade.
Given that Poland’s security, unlike that of Ukraine, rests on its NATO Some might wonder why Poland feels the need to be an exception when it comes to military spending. The answer is that history and geography make Poland hedge against the possibility that Ukraine will be forced into an unsatisfactory ceasefire and that Russia will quickly regenerate its combat power. Additionally, Poles fear the prospect of an isolationist Trump administration that could weaken their economy. NATO and are reluctant to come to the aid of Poland, if the worst were to happen.
Poland’s first priority last year was to fill the gaps left by the transfer of 240 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, combat aircraft and artillery (including 54 new Polish Krab howitzers) to Ukraine. America agreed to deliver 116 M1 Abrams tank from Pentagon stocks will be added to the 250 ordered in 2021. But the list quickly grew: most of the contracts were not awarded only to America but, more surprisingly, to South Korea. South. This was partly to snub Europeans critical of the P.IS the government’s creeping authoritarianism.
Although not all contracts have been finalized, total planned spending could be between $30 billion and $40 billion, but could reach $135 billion over the next decade. In addition to an agreement in 2020 to purchase 32 F-35 fighter jets for $4.6 billion, among other big-ticket items ordered from the United States, including 486 HIMARS rocket launchers for around $10 billion, in addition to the 20 already available; 96 Apache attack helicopters worth up to $15 billion (in addition to an order worth $1.7 billion for 32 A.W.149 helicopters from Leonardo, an Italian company); 48 of the latest Patriot air defense launch stations with hundreds of interceptor missiles and an air and missile defense combat command system that ties it all together, at a cost of up to $15 billion.
However, it was the scale and scope of the series of deals with South Korea, worth a total of at least $14.5 billion, that surprised observers. They include 1,000 K2 Black Panther tanks, of which 180 will be delivered quickly from Korean army stocks and 820 will be manufactured under license in Poland starting in 2026. The rest of the batch includes 672 Thunder howitzers, two-thirds of which are produced locally, and 288 Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers will be mounted on Polish infantry fighting vehicles. Poland intends to field more tanks than the German, French, British and Italian armies combined.
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To replace the MIg-29 and SU-22 sent to Ukraine, Poland also buys 48 Golden Eagle from South Korea F.A.-50 combat aircraft, rather than adding more expensive American aircraft to its fleet F-16s, for which you will have to wait years. Speed of delivery, quality, price and standardization with NATO equipment were all reasons to do business with the Koreans. Another strategic objective has been to turn this purchasing frenzy into an engine to develop Poland’s own arms industry as an exporter to the rest of Europe – again, with the help of Korea .
What could go wrong? While generally approving the strengthening of defence, the new government will wish to review certain contracts which may have been unduly hastily concluded. The affordability of the gun spree also depends on optimistic assumptions about economic growth. Ben Barry, an expert on land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, questions whether Poland can manage the scale of infrastructure investment and institutional changes needed to meet the “enormous challenge” of training an army many more people are using the new kit. .
Poland’s demographics – its population is rapidly declining – could make it difficult to achieve the goal of an armed force of 300,000, including 250,000 regulars and 50,000 part-timers. A former head of the Ministry of National Defense, Tomasz Siemoniak, recently put an end to this project: a professional army of 150,000 men, he believes, is the manageable limit.
If, as expected, the new government seeks to restore relations with the EUhe will be pressured to conform EU budget deficit rules, which will lead to closer scrutiny of Poland’s voluminous military ambitions. Nevertheless, Poland seems determined to become NATOThe country’s strongest land military power for years to come. Fear of Russia is a big motivator. ■
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