Strength of 2024 NFL schedule for all 32 teams: Browns, Ravens among toughest; Falcons, Saints have it easier

If the Cleveland Browns want to make back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time in 35 years, it won’t be easy, and that’s because they’ll face the NFL’s toughest schedule in 2024.

The Browns haven’t made back-to-back playoff appearances since 1989, which also happens to be the last time they won a division title. Their appearance in the playoffs that year capped a streak of five consecutive playoff berths that ran from 1985 to 1989. The Browns will look to end that drought in 2024, but given the strength of the schedule this year, it will not be easy.

Cleveland has a strength of schedule of .547, which not only gives them the toughest schedule for the upcoming season, but it makes them one of only two teams in the NFL – along with the Baltimore Ravens – that will have a strength of schedule above 0.535.

Cleveland’s rough schedule includes 12 games against teams that finished with a winning record last season, which is tied for first in the NFL. The Browns’ home schedule is particularly brutal with five of their eight games against teams that made the playoffs last year (Pittsburgh Steelers, Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys). Not to mention they will also have a home game against the Cincinnati Bengals, meaning six of Cleveland’s eight home games will be against teams that finished 2023 with a record of .500 or better.

The second-toughest schedule belongs to the Ravens, who will face a brutal road schedule this year with games against the Chiefs, Bengals, Browns, Steelers, Houston Texans, Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, all of whom finished the 2023 season with a victory. record (the Ravens will also play road games against the New York Giants and Jim Harbaugh’s Los Angeles Chargers).

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints found themselves tied for easiest strength of schedule at .453 (the Falcons and Saints are the only two teams facing a calendar strength less than .465). The Falcons will only play six teams in the playoffs starting in 2023, while the Saints will play eight, making New Orleans’ schedule slightly more difficult.

The good news for the Saints and/or Falcons is that in each of the last seven years, at least one team playing one of the two easier schedules has finished with a winning record. Additionally, in six of the last seven years, at least one team playing one of the two easier schedules has reached the playoffs.

Although the Falcons and Saints have the least difficult strength of schedule, they won’t have a huge advantage over the other two teams in their division because the Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers also have an easier strength of schedule. Carolina has the fourth-easiest schedule, while Tampa Bay’s ranks fifth.

The addition of the 17th game added some spice to the strength of the schedule metric, because it means good teams are now playing tougher schedules. From 2002 to 2020, the schedule was inherently the same for everyone, whether it was a “first place” schedule or a “last place” schedule. Each team played four games against a team that finished in first place, four games against teams that finished in second place, four games against teams that finished in third place, and four games against teams that finished in finished in last place.

With the addition of the 17th game, one first place team will now face FIVE first place teams, meaning you will rarely see a division winner with an easy schedule.

Of the eight teams playing a “first place” schedule in 2024, the Buccaneers have the easiest, which is notable because first place teams have done well in this situation since the NFL moved to a 17-year schedule. games in 2021. In the three years since, the first-place team with the easiest “first place” schedule has finished with a winning record in each season. The Jacksonville Jaguars had the “easiest” first-place schedule in 2023 and they finished 9-8. The Cowboys had the “easiest” first-place schedule in 2022 and they managed to turn it into a 12-5 record. The Buffalo Bills had the “easiest” first-place schedule in 2021 and they finished with an 11-6 record.

If you score at home, that’s an average of 10.7 wins per season.

When it comes to teams playing a “last place” schedule this year, the Chicago Bears had the biggest win because they have the easiest schedule among the last place teams (they are ranked 29th overall in terms of schedule strength). On the other hand, the New England Patriots, who are also playing a last-place schedule, have the eighth-toughest schedule in the NFL, meaning this could be a tough year for them.

One team to watch might be the Chargers, who have the easiest schedule in the AFC. They might not make the playoffs, but in Harbaugh’s first year with the team, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them improve several games from their 2023 record of 5-12 . Last year, we wrote that the Texans this would be the surprise team to watch based on the strength of the schedule, and we hit the nail on the head.

The Bengals could also be another team to watch. The Browns, Ravens and Steelers have the three toughest schedules in the NFL this year, but Cincinnati’s schedule ranks just 16th with a .502 SOS. The Bengals have the advantage of facing three opponents – the Patriots, Tennessee Titans and Panthers – that no other team in the AFC North will face. To put that into perspective, the Ravens’ three opponents that no other team in the AFC North will face are the Bills, Texans and Buccaneers. On paper, it’s significantly tougher than Cincinnati’s roster.

The one thing about schedule strength is that there is no ideal way to measure schedule difficulty before the season begins. Thanks to injuries and trades, rosters are constantly changing and will continue to change throughout the season. That being said, the strength of the schedule gives you a good idea of ​​what your favorite team will face in the upcoming season.

Here is the strength of the 2024 schedule standings for each team (combined 2023 record of all 17 opponents, combined winning percentage).

1	Browns	158-131	.547
2	Crows	155-134	.536
3	Steelers	154-135	.533
T-4	Packers	152-137	.526
T-4	Texans	152-137	.526
T-6	Invoices	149-140	.516
T-6	giants	149-140	.516
T-8	Jaguar	148-141	.512
T-8	Raiders	148-141	.512
T-8	Patriots	148-141	.512
11	the Lions	147-142	.509
T-12	Cowboys	146-143	.505
T-12	Rams	146-143	.505
T-12	Jets	146-143	.505
T-12	49ers	146-143	.505
T-16	Bengals	145-144	.502
T-16	Chefs	145-144	.502
T-16	Vikings	145-144	.502
T-16	Commanders	145-144	.502
20	Broncos	143-146	.495
T-21	Colts	142-147	.491
T-21	Eagles	142-147	.491
T-21	Titans	142-147	.491
T-24	Cardinals	141-148	.488
T-24	dolphins	141-148	.488
T-24	sea ​​hawks	141-148	.488
T-27	Chargers	138-151	.478
T-27	Buccaneers	138-151	.478
T-29	Panthers	135-154	.467
T-29	Bear	135-154	.467
T-31	Saints	131-158	.453
T-31	Falcons	131-158	.453

If you are curious about the schedule formula, each team plays 17 games as follows:

• Back and forth against opponents from three divisions (six matches).
• The four teams from another division within its conference on a rotating three-year cycle (four games).
• The four teams from one division of the other conference on a rotating cycle of four years (four games).
• Two intra-conference games based on previous year’s standings (two games). These games pit a first-place team against the first-place teams in the two divisions of the same conference that the team is not scheduled to play in this season. The teams ranked second, third and fourth in a conference are played the same way each year.
• An interconference game based on the previous year’s standings on a rotating four-year cycle (one game). These games pit a first-place team from one division against a first-place team from an opposite conference division that the team is not scheduled to play that season. The second, third and fourth placed teams in each division are played the same way each year. The home conference for this game will change each season.

Finally, here is a link to a list of all home and away opponents each team will face in 2024. The time and dates for each game will be released in May.