Bitcoin has fallen more than 40% in the past two months, and punters are starting to bet the cryptocurrency has a much bigger drop.
The bookies at US-Bookies.com have increased the odds of Bitcoin falling to $ 10,000 this year to 8 to 11, an implied probability of 57.9%.
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A handful of bookmakers are even more pessimistic. Bitcoin currently has a 33 to 1 chance of falling below $ 1,000 by the end of the year (just an implied probability of 2.9%). This, of course, is unlikely, but it should be noted that in mid-April the odds of the crypto falling this low were 250 to 1 (an implied probability of 0.4%).
Making such crypto bets, at least in a casino or online betting forum, is illegal in the United States. US-Bookies data comes from European and global markets, where it is authorized.
The change in sentiment among bettors comes amid bullish and bearish news regarding Bitcoin. El Salvador recently approved crypto as legal tender. And global banking regulators are increasingly reporting a growing acceptance of digital currency.
But news that the U.S. government has recovered almost all of the ransom paid by Colonial Pipeline has shaken some investors’ confidence in the safety of Bitcoin transfers. Meanwhile, the IRS has said it is prioritizing an effort to impose the collection of taxes on Bitcoin transactions.
Bitcoin was treading water at noon on Thursday, up 2.5% to $ 37,115, according to Coindesk. Just a month ago, however, it was trading at $ 55,715.
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This story was originally featured on Fortune.com