A victory for Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) in the Senate runoff next week would give Democrats a crucial 51st vote in the upper house, as well as something else they crave: breathing room.
A little breathing room could do wonders for a party that has been forced to navigate the tricky waters of a 50-50 Senate. Only one Democratic member could no longer – including the senses. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (Arizona) — derailing a controversial candidate or long-sought piece of legislation, giving Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (NY) a boost in the process.
“It’s day and night,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) told The Hill. “Being able to lose one is 100 times better than not being able to lose one.”
A Warnock victory, coupled with the Republicans taking over the House, would serve as a punch that would significantly reduce the pressure and influence of Manchin and Sinema, the two top moderates in the Senate Democratic caucus.
In addition to potentially losing a Democratic vote on legislation, the reconciliation bills, which require just 50 votes and have been at the center of Democrats’ hopes for major legislation and frustration with Manchin and Sinema, would no longer be possible with the House in GOP hands, nor is passing bills simply by getting rid of the legislative filibuster.
“There’s pressure on everyone, but the focus on one or two members drops dramatically, which makes Schumer’s job so much easier,” Kaine added.
“It means all the difference in the world,” added Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.).
Of all the Senate Democrats, perhaps no one claims to be happier with Warnock’s eventual victory than Manchin himself. The West Virginia moderate, along with Sinema, is also up for re-election in 2024, raising the stakes over the next two years for him personally as he seeks to appeal to both broader Democrats and more conservative voters. of his state of origin.
“I wouldn’t wish 50-50 on anyone,” Manchin told The Hill.
Democrats appear to be in the driver’s seat ahead of Tuesday’s runoff. Warnock edged out Republican Herschel Walker by more than 36,000 votes on Election Day. According to the latest polling average from RealClearPolitics, Warnock leads by 3.2 percentage points over the former University of Georgia running back.
A Democratic 51st Senate would also be a boon at the committee level. Gone is the power-sharing deal between the two parties that forced a time-consuming process just to get some candidates to the Senate for votes. Once again, the party in power will be able to pass partisan candidates without the minority camp having the possibility of spoiling the work.
“It’s an additional seat on the committees. It just makes things smoother,” Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) said. “On committees like the judiciary, for example, it will make a big difference.”
And an extra vote will almost certainly be key simply because absences from the Senate floor, whether for health issues or other reasons, are not uncommon. Over the past two years, Senate Democrats have lost at least one vote on several occasions, including due to positive COVID-19 results that sidelined members. Two senators — Ben Ray Luján (DN.M.) and Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) — even suffered strokes that temporarily knocked them out.
Couple those concerns with possible health issues for older members, and this 51st vote will almost certainly prove pivotal in the 118th Congress.
“It means a huge difference in our ability to function,” Van Hollen said. “It gives you a bit more operating flexibility.”
An upset victory for Walker, however, would not only dash Democratic hopes for the next two years, but also give Republicans a major boost in what they believe will be a winning cycle for the party. Of the 33 seats up for re-election, 23 are held by Democrats, including a number in red or purple states that will give the party a chance to win back the upper house.
“Well, we could put this one in the hole for 2024 when we expect to have a pretty good map,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas). “There is no reason to go back”
However, there are issues at play for the GOP in the Peach State. Adding to his own personal issues, Walker won’t have the benefit of Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) on top of the ticket like he did last month. Kemp defeated Democrat Stacey Abrams on Election Day, winning 2.1 million votes, about 203,000 more than Walker.
Due to Democratic victories in Pennsylvania and Nevada, Walker and the Republicans were also deprived of the race to decide the majority, which the party relied on as their biggest calling card to secure the vote.
“Warnock has all the advantages. I think Herschel might even be the favorite if that were to determine the majority. … It’s not going to be close,” a GOP operative told The Hill. “Our people simply have no motivation to vote. Herschel Walker and his campaign do not motivate people to vote.
