KYIV, Feb 7 (Reuters) – Russia is pouring reinforcements into eastern Ukraine ahead of a new offensive that could begin next week on a front where battles have been unrelenting for months, a Ukrainian governor said. .
Desperate for Western military aid to arrive, Ukraine predicts that a major offensive could be launched by Russia for “symbolic” reasons around the February 24 anniversary of the invasion, which Moscow persists in calling “a special military operation”.
Ukraine itself is planning a spring offensive to retake lost territory, but is awaiting delivery of promised longer-range Western missiles and battle tanks, with some analysts saying the country is months away from being ready.
“We are seeing more and more (Russian) reserves being deployed in our direction, we are seeing more equipment being brought in…” said Serhiy Haidai, Ukrainian governor of the mainly Russian-occupied Luhansk province.
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“They are bringing ammunition that is used differently than before – it’s not round-the-clock bombing anymore. They are slowly starting to save, preparing for a full-scale offensive,” Haidai told Ukrainian television.
“It will most likely take them 10 days to gather reserves. After February 15, we can expect (this offensive) at any time.”
The war is reaching a turning point as it nears its first anniversary, with Ukraine no longer making progress as it did in the second half of 2022 and Russia moving forward with hundreds of thousands of reserve troops mobilized.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said personnel changes at the border and at the front would bolster Ukraine’s military efforts amid uncertainty over the future of its defense minister, just as Russia is advancing on the is for the first time in six months.
In his Monday evening speech, Zelenskiy said he wanted to combine military and managerial experience in local and central government, but did not directly address whether his defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, would be replaced.
On Sunday, David Arakhamia, leader of Zelenskiy’s parliamentary bloc, said Reznikov would be moved to another ministerial post, but on Monday he wrote that “there will be no personnel changes in the defense sector this week”.
Zelenskiy says he must show that Ukraine was a safe steward of billions of dollars in military and other Western aid, and that his government is engaged in the biggest political and administrative upheaval since the invasion of Russia there. almost a year old.
“In a number of regions, particularly border or frontline ones, we will appoint leaders with military experience. Those who can prove most effective in defending against existing threats,” he said.
The European Union said Zelenskiy had been invited to attend an EU leaders’ summit, amid reports he could be in Brussels as early as this week, in what would be just his second trip to the EU. stranger known since the start of the invasion.
Zelenskiy’s office did not respond to a request for comment.
NEW RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told Ukrainska Pravda over the weekend that intelligence suggested any new Russian offensive would likely come from the east or south.
“Their dream is to expand the land corridor to Crimea in order to continue the supply. Therefore, of course, the main risks are: east, south and then north,” he said.
Moscow annexed Crimea in 2014.
Ukrainian defense analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko said a new Russian offensive could come from any of four directions; the eastern Lugansk region, the Donetsk region, the Zaporizhzhia region and the city and port of Mariupol.
“Things are more serious in the Donetsk region, especially around Bakhmut and Avdiivka. And the Russians will reinforce their contingents there as well as equipment and paratroopers,” said Kovalenko, think tanks “Information Resistance group “, on the Ukrainian radio NV.
For months, Russia’s main target in eastern Ukraine has been Bakhmut, where its state media said the Wagner mercenary group had gained a foothold. Ukraine said Monday evening that Russian forces had trained tank, mortar and artillery fire there in the past 24 hours.
Kovalenko said Mariupol, captured by Russian forces last May, could be used by the Russians to bring in troops and equipment for a new offensive.
“It could serve as a transport hub for Russian occupation forces,” he said.
Kovalenko said Ukraine’s counteroffensive would not happen anytime soon and Ukrainian forces would take up a defensive position, especially in Donetsk.
“It may be an active defense, but a defensive position nonetheless. The idea will remain to block any Russian advance,” he said.
“Things could change faster in other sectors. But this situation could last two to two and a half months, that’s the time needed to supply the tanks to the brigades, train and equip everything.”
Additional reporting by Max Hunder, Ron Popeski, Nick Starkov and Lidia Kelly; Written by Costas Pitas and Michael Perry; edited by Grant McCool and Simon Cameron-Moore
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