Rupert Murdoch has backed politicians as eclectic as Hillary Clinton (at least in New York), Australian trade unionist Bob Hawke and an ex-employee fired for fabricating quotes named Boris Johnson. But one of the first mentions of the media mogul was perhaps the strangest of them all.
In 1960, the young Australian publisher visited an island nation ruled by a charismatic rebel who had annoyed Washington. Upon his return, Murdoch wrote what biographer William Shawcross described as a “starry-eyed” article demanding that the United States end its hostility.
Fidel Castro of Cuba had probably never heard of the Sydney Mirror or its owner Rupert Murdoch. But countless politicians would come to understand — and fear — the price that is a nod to Murdoch, and the paramount forces he can muster in any election campaign, often through tabloids like the Sun and the New York Post.
Murdoch is well known for his anti-elite conservatism, low taxes and advocacy. But if there is a Murdoch method for choosing politicians, it has proven to be much more chameleon in its pragmatism over the years.
The choices are never simple and they have become more complex as Murdoch’s influence has grown. Now, at 91, he could face one of the toughest calls of his career, with implications for his influence and the profit machine that is Fox News. What to do with Donald Trump?
Murdoch has mastered the art of taking the measure of a politician and detecting his expiration date. For half a century, he lost allegiances and sometimes switched sides, with timing that amplified his perceived power.
He insists profit is not a factor – “I’ve never asked anything of a Prime Minister” – but his shrewd choices have often favored his business ambitions. When he backed Tony Blair’s Labor party ahead of the 1997 election, Murdoch likened it to “making love like porcupines” – something to be done “very, very carefully”.
Even more care may be needed with Trump quills. Murdoch was reportedly initially deeply impressed with Trump in 2016, but soon realized his brazen grandstanding had captivated Republicans. Trump’s rise has also been undeniably good for Murdoch’s business: Fox News has prospered, with record profits, record ratings and unprecedented influence.
The calculation has since changed. Murdoch’s US newspapers have turned on the former president, with the New York Post reveling in portraying ‘Trumpty Dumpty’ as an abused election loser. Trump seems decidedly out of favor.
But the die has yet to be cast at Fox News, the outlet through which Murdoch and his heir Lachlan could decisively influence the Republican presidential nomination. Network anchors were relatively low-key when Trump declared his candidacy last month. This lack of enthusiasm was telling, but far from hostile. The news channel that helped make Trump president appears to have yet to decide how far to back him.
Consider what’s at stake. Murdoch has known presidents since John F Kennedy. But no relation to Trump. It wasn’t just that Trump watched Fox News and hired its anchors, the president also regularly called Murdoch for advice. “For Rupert it was priceless, the greatest entertainment,” said a former aide.
Undeniably, Trump’s decision also has financial implications. Fox News – with margins close to 50% – is the engine of a cable division that makes nearly $3 billion in underlying profits. Fox News ratings have beaten their rivals this year. But its prime-time viewership has never returned to Trump-era highs, and it’s dominated by those over 55.
Trump brings grades, but also issues. The post-Trump hangover for Fox News included two multibillion-dollar defamation lawsuits filed by voting tech companies. Fox denies wrongdoing, but some of its big shareholders say they are resigned to heavy settlements.
More worrying for Murdoch in the long run is how Trump has divided his audience. Since 2020, “trust” in Fox News among right-wing voters has fallen from 73% to 56%, according to surveys by the Reuters Institute at the University of Oxford.
This is alarming for a Murdoch media machine that prioritizes one mantra above all: give people what they want. Can Murdoch deliver in 2024? Fox News could find a Trump pick savior in Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, or it could simply hedge its bets and bank on getting closer to the former president if necessary. But this election, the dilemmas will be sharper and the stakes higher – even for Rupert Murdoch.