The Houston Rockets’ intention is clear if they land the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft.
Sure, maybe GM Rafael Stone will dance around and insist that an evaluation process has begun in case Houston wins the May toss, but we can trust the owner of the Rockets: If Houston holds the first pick, Victor Wembanyama arrives in Bayou City.
We’re not exactly breaking new ground with that statement. Wembanyama — Wemby to all the kids — is the consensus top prospect in the 2023 NBA Draft, one who is also considered by many to be basketball’s top prospect since LeBron James. If NBA rules didn’t prohibit it, the Rockets would send their draft card with the first pick to commissioner Adam Silver well before the June draft at Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
Such joy will be replaced by a grueling time for Stone and Co. if Houston falls below the No. 1 pick (a significant possibility given the modified lottery odds put in place from 2019). That’s not to say the Rockets won’t have a chance to land an impact player. Quite the contrary. But falling below No. 1 will then invite serious debate, and moreover, a chance to make the wrong call in trying to chart the franchise on a path back to relevance.
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Houston could once again face a dilemma if it lands the second pick in the 2023 NBA Draft.
We’ll have months to sort out Houston’s options in case he doesn’t land in Wembanyama. For now, let’s focus on the potential dilemma if the Rockets hold the No. 2 pick, with a player currently slated to play in the NCAA Men’s Tournament.
The first favorite
Rockets fans following the current rebuild are no stranger to Scoot Henderson, the über-athletic G League point guard who has long been considered the top non-Wembanyama prospect for the Class of 2023. And for good reason: Henderson pairs his ability to destroy rim defenses with a deft vision as a primary ball handler, and he draws plaudits for his demeanor and work ethic. So why isn’t Henderson a slam dunk at No. 2? He holds some guilt in this regard. He’s struggled beyond the arc this season and foul-free at a particularly impressive rate, and while G League stats should be taken with a grain of salt, his end stat line year (17.6 points and 6.4 assists per game on 44% shooting) isn’t exactly mind-blowing.
Henderson should still be considered a slight favorite for the No. 2 pick, and he could very well still be a franchise-changing talent at the NBA level. But his G League ignition season has left the door open for another player to take over at No.2.
Rising march Madness?
Alabama freshman Brandon Miller is now Henderson’s supposed challenger for second place as he continues a stellar season at Alabama. The 6-foot-9 forward earned consensus All-American honors in 2022-23 averaging 19.6 points and 8.3 rebounds per game, and his draft skills translate well to the NBA as a scorer oversized and fluid. Perhaps Miller’s positionality gives him an advantage over Henderson. With the Rockets’ backcourt currently packed with Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr. and potentially another impact ball handler arriving in July, Houston’s current depth chart calls for a plug-and-play wing.
Miller and the Crimson Tide will now take center stage as the No. 1 seed in the NCAA Men’s Tournament. A run to the Final Four could see him supplant Henderson amid a number of false drafts heading into June.
