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The writer is director of regional security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies
On Saturday night, a long-awaited Iranian strike against Israel began with a bang and ended with a whimper. Even before the hundreds of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles fired reached Israel, Tehran’s diplomatic mission to the UN issued a statement announcing the end of this cycle. The incoming projectiles were intercepted over the skies of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Israel by an international coalition, and no serious damage or casualties were reported.
It was the most dangerous step yet in the complex, high-stakes shadowboxing surrounding the war between Israel and Hamas, bringing it into the spotlight. Since October 7, Iran and Israel have been locked in an escalating confrontation, in which Israel repeatedly bloodies Iran’s face while the latter dances hesitantly while avoiding launching a punch.
Iran is going through difficult times. Tehran appreciated Israel’s loss of position in the face of the Gaza war, Western moral embarrassment and Arab outrage. His relative restraint generated valuable goodwill from his neighbors, partially ending his long-standing isolation. But these gains have been fragile, and the ruling clique has known from the start that a direct war with Israel could not only jeopardize its regional position, but could also lead to intervention by the United States and harm the regime itself. even.
Last night’s attacks produced enough images that Iran and its partners could happily use for their propaganda. But as Tehran reacted with humiliation following Israeli strikes on its consulate in Damascus earlier this month, yesterday’s events may be far from satisfactory on a strategic level.
Iran now sees the limits of resorting to partner militias: this dilemma was launched by the Hamas branch in Gaza, which triggered a major conflict without its knowledge. Israel’s subsequent strikes exposed the disconnect between Iran’s low risk appetite and the aggressive posture of the vaunted “Axis of Resistance.” The lack of retaliation for Israel’s repeated killings of top IRGC commanders and allied militias in Syria and Lebanon in recent months has angered the regime’s Praetorian Guard.
The responsibility now falls on Israel. Its air defenses worked well last night, which reassured its population and gave it time to calibrate its response. Israeli officials have already promised a situation of “unprecedented scale.” For Benjamin Netanyahu, it was a clear victory: the Iranian attack galvanized Western support after weeks of growing criticism of the brutal campaign in Gaza. The worry now is that Israel’s sense of having prevailed in this cycle could make it less, rather than more, risk-averse. It’s possible that Netanyahu will say to Washington: If you won’t let us go after Iran, let’s invade Rafah, the southern Gaza city.
But Israel owes this success to numerous warnings from Iran and help from the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Jordan and other Arab states. The operation exposed its security dependence on the very partners it has scorned in recent months. The American administration does not want a broader war and continues to worry about Netanyahu’s maneuvers. Arab leaders are even more concerned about short-term Israeli belligerence than about Iran. They know that a massive attack on Iranian command and control, military or nuclear facilities will likely force Tehran and its allies to abandon all their restrictions.
It would also be a mistake to dismiss the Iranian attack because it was militarily ineffective. Israel was attacked by another state for the first time since 1991 and Iran will have learned its lessons. Iran also set a precedent that it could respond directly and not necessarily by proxy. Signaling since the attack has been mixed: his foreign minister requested leave while the IRGC leader announced “[Iran] decided to create a new equation [with Israel].” American deterrence has also been eroded: its public information has failed to convince Iran not to pursue further action.
Palestinians in Gaza are relegated to all of this. For all its effective support for them, Iran’s attack may well elevate the war there to the global agenda, just as calls for an immediate ceasefire and greater humanitarian access were gaining momentum. Negotiations over Israeli hostages, already at an impasse, are expected to be suspended for a while. As long as Washington decouples the Gaza ceasefire from dangerous regional dynamics, the situation will get worse.
