Quarterbacks: either you have one or you don’t. OK, so it’s not that simple; many competitive NFL teams (see: Falcons, Giants, Jets) are experiencing surprise success in 2022 while keeping their flaggers in the background. Generally speaking, though, the easiest path to vying for a championship is to own one of the game’s elite players under center. And the quickest route to wallowing in the basement of the league standings – as teams like Commanders and Panthers will attest – is to bet on damaged property in the same location.
There’s a long way to go before some franchises make QB decisions for 2023, while others are already virtual locks on making big changes. Almost halfway through 2022, here’s a look at the 10 teams we consider most likely to make a significant QB move after the season:
Geno Smith has been one of the best underdog stories of 2022 so far, but we still have a long way to go before we crown him the surefire long-term successor to Russell Wilson. It’s possible, if not likely, that they’ll end up paying it to stay while investing premium assets in his successor, to the multi-dart strategy that landed them Wilson the same year they splashed the big bucks on Matt Flynn. Either way, with two first-round picks in 2023 and plenty of deck cap space, they’re in a better position than most to acquire a new face of the franchise, whether through the draft. or trade.
Jared Goff has played a good soldier as the quiet leader of the Lions who never give up, but 2023 will be the third year of Dan Campbell’s regime, and Goff, despite being just 28, is due to receive 31 million dollars next year – 11th among all QBs. With another top-five pick potentially on the way, Detroit almost can’t afford to ignore the possibility of adding competition under center. Trading Goff, or designating him after June 1, might be the best way to rip the bandage off, unless they’re confident they can make the defensive upgrades to bring a Goff-led roster to their top spot in playoffs. over half a decade.
The current front office doesn’t seem too invested in Justin Fields, otherwise he could have surrounded the first round of 2021 with a starting caliber O line and a receiving body. Amid the shaky supporting cast, Fields also didn’t give team leaders an abundance of reason to invest. On track for a top-10 pick in 2023, the Bears are also expected to lead the NFL by far in salary cap. If GM Ryan Poles wants his own guy, he has the ammunition to make it happen.
Yes really. After his 40-day retirement this offseason, Tom Brady will be a free agent after 2022, which means he has two avenues out of Tampa Bay if he chooses: retirement (for real) or another relocation. Given all the smoke surrounding his flirtation with the Dolphins and the possibility of more historic landing spots emerging (see: San Francisco, based on Trey Lance’s recovery), it’s not hard to imagine TB12 forcing the Bucs to pivot to the position after three years together.
6. Hawks
Frankly, it wouldn’t be entirely shocking if Arthur Smith actually bought Marcus Mariota as a viable multi-year starter for his heavy offense, but if the QB’s erratic passing scores don’t convince the coach otherwise, then the story suggests durability. problems could possibly. Either way, Mariota is easily expendable – due at $14.5 million in 2023, it can be cut to save almost all of that – and they’ve got plenty of cash to spend after rebuilding the roster for a second consecutive year.
5. Giants
No offense to Daniel Jones, who controlled the ball and presented his legs as a quiet figurehead for Brian Daboll’s surprising and spicy contender. There’s still time for the former first-rounder to prove that he’s made some lasting moves as a passer as well. But that organization opted to make him a free agent after the year, and it’s hard not to see Daboll, Saquon Barkley and their spirited defense as the main reasons for their success. With plenty of cash to spend in 2023, they’re ready to explore their options.
Before re-signing Jameis Winston and adding Andy Dalton as a new replacement this offseason, they tried to land Deshaun Watson, who tells you all you need to know: they don’t settle here. Neither Dalton nor Winston can be trusted in the short or long term, and both could easily be let down after the year; designating the latter as a reduction after June 1 would save them nearly $13 million. The unfortunate hurdle they will have to overcome, however, is the fact that they do not have a first round in 2023.
By the end of 2022, this team will be two full seasons away from having Deshaun Watson on the field as a QB. Maybe GM Dave Caserio will finally realize it’s time to add some competition for 2021 third round Davis Mills. Their long-term vision remains an absolute mystery after consecutive years of hiring senior coaches while prioritizing leftover free agents. But with two first rounds again at their disposal in 2023, they have no reason not to pursue another caller.
2. Commanders
Ron Rivera recently – and controversially – pinpointed QB as the reason Washington falls short of the rest of the NFC East, but the real controversy is how many times as it has in the last half-decade. Kirk Cousins looks like an All-Pro in their record books after bits from Alex Smith, Case Keenum, Josh Johnson and Ryan Fitzpatrick to name a few. Their latest bet on Carson Wentz failed for several reasons, including an inability to protect the much-maligned QB; and backup Taylor Heinicke, while brave, is not a long-term answer. With or without Rivera in 2023, they can save $26 million by releasing Wentz and then hopefully aim to build from within through the draft.
1. Panthers
Nothing new here. Since Cam Newton’s decline and initial departure, they’ve been swaying and missing where it matters most. David Tepper’s brief possession of the franchise was defined by his club’s increasingly desperate bets: Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, Cam Newton 2.0, Baker Mayfield. With Matt Rhule out and new staff inevitably on the way, as well as a potential No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, they’ll be motivated to finally choose their new face of the franchise.
Honorable mention
- Foals: The carousel has to go on, right? Matt Ryan is signed until 2023, but he owes more than $35 million next year at age 38, and that says nothing about his physical condition behind an unreliable line. His fate likely hinges on that of the entire regime, including coach Frank Reich and general manager Chris Ballard. If they can’t make the playoffs in a wide-open AFC South, after all the QB turnover they’ve had in recent years, they can cut Ryan and save at least $17 million to start fresh. .
- Jets: Surely they wouldn’t look to replace Zach Wilson, their 2021 No. 2 pick, if New York kept him as a surprise contender in the AFC East. Or would they? General manager Joe Douglas has built the rest of the team — the running game, the line, the receivers, the secondary all seem improved — but Wilson has essentially stayed behind on his recent success. It’s possible, depending on his trajectory, that they see themselves as a proven QB away from making a real run.
- Titans: As goes Derrick Henry, so goes Ryan Tannehill, basically. The latter helped make Tennessee a viable contender under Mike Vrabel, but he likely hit his ceiling as a Jimmy Garoppolo placeholder. More than that, he owed $36.6 million at age 35 in 2023 — the fifth-highest total among any QB. After spending a third round on Malik Willis, Tennessee could easily embark on another cheaper and/or more bullish alternative to separate themselves from the AFC South pack.
