LAS VEGAS — Just four years ago, the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers played in the Super Bowl, a game won by the Chiefs and a game that gave Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes his first victory at the Super Bowl.
Since then, Mahomes has won one more, lost another and is trying to become a three-time Super Bowl winner this week against the same 49ers organization he beat four years ago.
We are often asked what this first meeting will mean for this match?
Not a lot.
There are only 17 players combined on both teams that participated in this game. But what’s even more telling is taking a look at the leading stats from this match.
The main passers were Jimmy Garoppolo for the 49ers and Mahomes for the Chiefs. The leading rushers were Raheem Mostert for the 49ers and Damien Williams for the Chiefs. The leading receivers in terms of yards were Tyreek Hill for the Chiefs and Kendrick Bourne for the 49ers. There were four players intercepted in the game. Three of these four players are gone.
The only constant?
Mahomes.
That’s why I’m picking the Chiefs to beat the 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII and become repeat champions while Mahomes wins his third title, sending notice to Tom Brady that he’s coming for him.
Kansas City Chiefs (+2) against San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Nickelodeon, Paramount+)
This Chiefs team hasn’t been the gaudy offensive team we’ve come to expect from Mahomes, but he’s found a way to solve major problems on offense this season, including poor tackling play and receivers who don’t. were unable to keep the ball. soccer. Now, his team is on the brink of history.
The Chiefs would become the first back-to-back champions since the New England Patriots and Brady in 2003 and 2004.
Although Mahomes hasn’t put up big numbers in the playoffs, he has been steady, capable and made the big plays when needed without making mistakes. Game manager? Barely. But he hasn’t thrown a pick in three playoff games and has only been sacked three times behind a leaky offensive line. This is playing big right now.
That’s not to say Mahomes can’t heat up and carry this team, even with the issues. We know he can. But I think the Chiefs will start running the football in this game with Isiah Pacheco against a 49ers defense that has given up 5.6 per carry in the playoffs. The 49ers were gashed trying to defend the run, getting pushed around by both the Green Pay Packers and Detroit Lions. Andy Reid is smart enough to know that’s where he needs to attack.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs have their best defense in the Mahomes era. Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best ever in the playoffs, but he faces a tough challenge against the 49ers offense. Spagnuolo likes to use a lot of nickel and dime looks, but you can bet the 49ers will attack this with Christian McCaffrey if he does. The Chiefs, like the 49ers, are vulnerable to the run and would be even more vulnerable if they didn’t play more base defense.
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Then there’s 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, who is playing in his first Super Bowl. This is a game that could be its true showcase moment for any skeptics still out there. He’s been really good this season, putting his name in the MVP conversation a bit. In both of the 49ers’ playoff victories, he hit drives late in games. This is how quarterbacks are defined, even if he sometimes had some difficulties during these games.
Purdy has been exceptional against the blitz this year – No. 1 in the league – so Spagnuolo will have to get creative with how he uses it. The Chiefs secondary is the strength of the defense, and its disguises and late rotations could be important in giving Purdy hesitation.
Early on, I see two teams running the football against weak defenses. The game will end late. But ultimately, it will be Mahomes’ time.
I can see it now: the 49ers lead by three at 20-17, Mahomes with the ball at his 25 with 2:20 left and two timeouts. From there, it’s Mahomes who pulls off another moment of magic, a surgical carving of the 49ers defense to give the Chiefs a game-winning touchdown, even though the field goal would tie the game.
That would give Mahomes three Super Bowl wins in six years as a starter, with one loss in the big game. He easily could have played in two more games, giving the Bengals a 21-3 lead in a playoff loss and seeing an offsides penalty negate an interception that would have beaten the Patriots in a championship game of the AFC.
The man is on a mission. This mission is to make Brady the best quarterback of all time. But let’s make it bigger than that. He could be on his way to becoming the next Michael Jordan, leaving stars in his path without rings as he accumulates them as the greatest to do it.
High praise indeed, but who are we to doubt Patrick Mahomes? I certainly won’t.
Take: Chiefs 24, 49ers 20
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